DFS Golf - WGC Match Play Roster Construction

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – JANUARY 13: Paul Casey and Tyrrell Hatton of Europe look on during the foursomes matches on day two of the 2018 EurAsia Cup presented by DRB-HICOM at Glenmarie DFS GOLF /

DFS Golf: WGC Match Play

Now that the draw for pods/groups is out, lets break it down and help you build a winning roster for this week! There is a lot of strategy involved this week and I’m going to lay out a few rules for you to follow to help you gain an edge over the competition.

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Do NOT play players from the same pod. Only one player can make it out so avoid doubling up on them.
Since they started the pods, only 35% of the #1 seeds have made it out. When building your roster, pick 2-3 high seeds and fill out the rest of your roster from the other tiers.
When players get to knockout stages they are still seeded. So the pod with the #1 seed (DJ) will play the pod with the #16 seed (Kuchar) so if you want to avoid DJ you better not roster players from Kuchar’s pod. Don’t handcuff yourself!

Reminder about the scoring this week before we get into roster construction:

Holes Won = 3 pts
Holes Halved = .75 points
Holes Lost = -.75 points
Holes not played = +1.6 points (not sure if this is for each player or just the winner)
Matches Won = +5 points
Matched Halved = +2 points
Win 3 straight holes = +5 point bonus
Do not lose a hole in the match = +7.5 points

With players who reach the semifinals playing 7 matches total for the tournament, anyone who has all 4 in their lineup will be on their way to a big cash for the week. Most weeks you are attempting to pick 6 guys who make the cut and almost 50% of the field makes the cut. This week you are trying to pick 6 guys to make it out of their pod when only 27% of the players will. It’s going to be MUCH harder to create a solid lineup this week, and its very possible that we’ll see more lineups with 0 players moving on to the ‘Sweet Sixteen’ than teams with 6 of 6 players moving on. DFS Golf has a massive amount of variance to begin with, throw in match play and it gets even crazier. For this reason, I will be playing less volume this week and will be avoiding cash games entirely. I’ll throw some DFS Golf GPP darts and hope for a big win, this is not a week to try to increase your bankroll.

DFS Golf: WGC Match Play – Pod Breakdown

In this section I’m going to rank each pod with the player who I like best to come out of it listed first, and the player I like least listed forth along with some commentary.

Pod #1

Dustin Johnson
Adam Hadwin
Kevin Kisner
Bernd Wiesberger

Love DJ in all formats this week. Hadwin has a shot if his putter gets hot but I just can’t see DJ not blowing all of these guys away.

Pod #2

Justin Thomas
Luke List
Patton Kizzire
Francesco Molinari

I think JT got a really good draw here. Has already beaten List down the stretch and while Kizzire has won twice this year, not against world-class fields by any means. Molinari has been playing OK, but not near as good as the others. I like JT but could get on board with List if you are looking for salary savings.

Pod # 3

Jon Rahm
Chez Reavie
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Keegan Bradley

Not the best draw for Rahmbo but he should have no problems. Kiradech has had quite a bit of success in match play recently, but really struggled last week at Bay Hill missing the cut and recent form seems to play a big role here. Chez and Rahm are good buddies and play together quite a bit, which could be a bit of an edge for him, but Rahm absolutely overpowered this course last year and I see him doing that here again.

Pod #4

Jordan Spieth
Patrick Reed
Charl Schwartzel
Haotong Li

Spieth was not on my radar this week until he got this draw. I was secretly hoping he would have a few of the Tier 2/3 guys I liked in his pod. How great that we get a Reed/Spieth match. Hopefully its Friday to move on. Li hasn’t done anything in a few months and Schwartzel has been fairly mediocre so far this year. I could get on board with Reed, but Spieth should be low owned and has probably the easiest path to the final four.

Pod #5

Patrick Cantlay
Hideki Matsuyama
Cam Smith
Yusako Miyazato

This is the first pod I’m deviating from the number one seeds. I think Cantlay’s game is perfect for match play. Hideki seems to struggle in this format and with the fact he’s in a pod with another Japanese player, the media will be going nuts (more nuts than usual) Hideki was OK last week coming off the wrist injury. Cantlay ranks 9th in my model and Deki was 7th, so in a coin flip I’ll take the cost savings on Cantlay.

Pod #6

Rory McIlroy
Brian Harman
Jhonnatan Vegas
Peter Uihlein

Rory. Lets move on.

Pod #7

Xander Schaufelle
Sergio Garcia
Dylan Fritteli
Shubankar Sharma

This might be the group of death. Sergio is number one in my model, but that doesn’t factor in becoming a dad a week ago. I can’t say I remember what that first week as a new dad was like because I was a complete zombie. I’m sure Sergio has a nanny so he can get some rest but I’ll still be avoiding him. I love Xander this week, Fritelli is a local, and Sharma is the hottest thing in golf. I think all four of these guys have a shot at going deep, but are you willing to tank a lineup for that?Honestly I’ll probably just avoid this group so I don’t have to sweat the matches.

Pod #8

Louis Oosthuizen
Jason Day
James Hahn
Jason Dufner

I’m big on Louis this week. Obviously will savor a rematch with Day who he lost to here in 2016. Day who has won here, doesn’t necessarily rate out well in my model over the last 24 rounds while Louis is in the top 15. Hahn and Dufner should be non factors, but never say never. Louis is 8-2 and Austin Country Club, which is a fantastic record. Day had some back issues last week apparently (surprise) so I’ll honestly be avoiding him.

LA QUINTA, CA – JANUARY 18: Kevin Chappell prepares to play his shot on the 11th hole during the first round of the CareerBuilder Challenge at the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West on January 18, 2018 in La Quinta, California. (Photo by Robert Laberge/Getty Images) /

DFS Golf: WGC Match Play – Pods 9-16

Pod #9

Kevin Chappell
Tommy Fleetwood
Daniel Berger
Ian Poulter

Another difficult group to predict. According to Datagolf.ca and their projections Fleetwood leads with the way with a 29% chance to come out of this pod, while Berger and Chappell are tied with 26% chance and Poulter follows that up with 17%. Honestly any of them could come out of this group, but you have to take a stand somewhere. I’ll have Chappell/Berger in a few line ups, Chappell ranks out 13th in my model, while Berger is 10th. I could see fading this difficult draw as a viable option as well.

Pod #10

Paul Casey
Kyle Stanley
Russell Henley
Matthew Fitzpatrick

This is Paul Casey’s group to lose and he will be a part of my core in any GPP build. Whoever wins here comes out of probably the easiest bracket to reach the final four. I think Stanley might have a shot as he’s a great ball striker but I just don’t see how if Casey is playing well he does anything but drub this group. May be in line for a few of those holes left bonus which will play a huge role this week. Casey is the perfect pair for DJ in GPP lineups in my mind.

Pod #11

Branden Grace
Marc Leishman
Bubba Watson
Julian Suri

Another interesting combination of players. Leishman is one of the least favored favorites as he draws two difficult match ups in Grace and Watson in his group and Suri has played great golf so far this year on the Euro tour (and is sponsored by the Jacksonville Jaguars). I like President’s cup vet Branden Grace in this group and will probably have a little Bubba too just for some variance, though that +7 final round at Bay Hill still stings me.

Pod #12

Tyrell Hatton
Charley Hoffman
Brendan Steele
Alexander Levy

I really like the old bulldog Tyrell Hatton to come out of this group. The guy is ballstriker and a fantastic wedge player. He has had some success in Match Play, and though he didn’t make it out of his group here last year, he played well. Hoffman and Steele both have the game to win here and this is a Ryder cup tryout for Levy but Hatton is world-class and showed it a few weeks ago at WGC Mexico.

Pod #13

Noren
Na
Finau
Pieters

While watching the draw last night I was hoping Kevin Na would avoid Rory’s group. Unfortunately he ended up here. Noren’s record at this event is stellar, but Na’s is not too shabby. If you want to build lineups with some of the top guys you have to dip down and play some of these guys from the 4th tier. Noren didn’t light the world on fire last week and Na has just been consistently grinding out good finishes. Finau has the game and when Pieters gets hot he is world-class. Tough to say which group is more difficult, this one or Sergio’s. You could build lineups with anyone here and be successful, but I’ll probably be hitching my horse to Na.

Pod #14

Phil Mickelson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Charles Howell III
Satoshi Kodaira

How do you pick against Phil in this format? Guy crushes in match play, coming off a big win in Mexico, course fits his eye…that being said RCB has a legit chance, and I think CH3 does as well, but both need Phil to hit the eject button a bit.

Pod #15

Pat Perez
Gary Woodland
Webb Simpson
Si Woo Kim

This might be my favorite pod. I’m loading up on Pat Perez here. Makes a ton of birdies and has a great mentality for match play. Pat also has fantastic form recently, not that cut making is key here, but he hasn’t missed one since last years British Open, which says a lot about how he can grind which actually is extremely important in match play. I also have a sneaky suspicion that Si Woo pulls a Si Woo and WD’s at some point with an ‘injury’ that’s a guaranteed 32 points for your guy. This group also gets to match up against JT’s group in the first round which is a good draw.

Pod #16

Zach Johnson
Matt Kuchar
Ross Fisher
Yuta Ikeda

If I’m making line ups without DJ then ZJ is locked in. Huge price savings, plays extremely well here, and gets an unreal draw against an out of form Kuchar, Fisher who is battling back issues, and Yuta Ikeda.

DFS Golf: WGC Match Play – Roster Construction

Now we get into one of the most difficult parts of the week, how do we actually build rosters that don’t handcuff us and give us the best chance of getting 4 guys to the Semi-Finals, which you will need to take down a GPP. First lets look at the rules I laid out earlier again.

Do NOT play players from the same pod. Only one player can make it out so avoid doubling up on them.
Since they started the pods, only 35% of the #1 seeds have made it out. When building your roster, pick 2-3 high seeds and fill out the rest of your roster from the other tiers.
When players get to knockout stages they are still seeded. So the pod with the #1 seed (DJ) will play the pod with the #16 seed (Kuchar) so if you want to avoid DJ you better not roster players from Kuchar’s pod. Don’t handcuff yourself!

To build a GPP roster for this you want to pick at least 2 #1 seeds, preferably from opposite sides of the bracket. So if you are paying up for Dustin Johnson ($11,800) I think a perfect pair would be Paul Casey ($8,800) as they have no chance of meeting until the final. My two favorites are DJ and Jon Rahm ($10,800) but its difficult to build the rest of your roster with those two taking up 45% of your roster space. You can do it, and I might throw a dart with that but its difficult and you gotta hope for some huge upsets.

As noted earlier I like Patrick Cantlay ($7400) to upset Hideki and if he does that he will find himself in a good position against whoever comes out of Tyrell Hatton’s ($8500).

Again, the big key here is that you don’t want your players to meet in the first round. If they meet in the second thats not the end of the world, but if you can avoid that it would be great as well. Rahm and Rory McIlroy ($10000) could pair well together with their price points but would meet in the second round if they both make it through. I think Rahmbo pairs well with a Jordan Spieth ($10500) and a Pat Perez ($8400) if you want to go that route. Phil Mickelson ($9300) is an interesting candidate to advance but plays Rahm in the first round, I’d want to avoid that like the plague.

Zach Johnson ($6800) provides a ton of value at his price point, but that group lines up with DJ first round, another not ideal situation. Do I think ZJ has a chance to beat DJ? Yes, of course or I wouldn’t roster him at all. But do NOT roster both in the same lineup unless you are playing cash games (which I advise against this week)

The last guy I’ll talk about is Kevin Na ($6600) he’s coming from the most difficult group in my opinion but you got to take a punt somewhere and I’d much rather do it on a guy like Na as opposed to Yuta Ikeda ($6500) or even James Hahn ($6600). If you roster Na you can afford to pair DJ with some other studs which right now looks like the ideal play.

GPP Core:

Here are the guys I’ll be rostering the most in GPP’s:

Dustin Johnson ($11,800)

More from FanSided

Jon Rahm ($10,800)

Jordan Spieth ($10,500)

Rory McIlroy ($10,000)

Paul Casey ($8800)

Tyrell Hatton ($8500)

Pat Perez ($8400)

Louis Oosthuizen ($8000)

Kevin Chappell ($7500)

Patrick Cantlay ($7400)

Branden Grace ($7300)

Zach Johnson ($6800)

Kevin Na ($6600)

Final Thoughts:

This should be an extremely fun and interesting week. I can’t wait to see how it all plays out. That being said, I cannot stress enough how much of a disadvantage you are at in a Massive Multi Entry contest as opposed to Single Entry if you are not max entering. This week especially where there is so much variance. This is not a great week to build your bankroll, so play some GPP’s and take some shots, to win big you will need to have at least 3 of the Semi finalists so remember to vary where your players are coming from. Get those lineups done tonight, because lock is tomorrow AM!

Next: DFS Golf: WGC Match Play

Check my earlier post for a breakdown of the course and the tiers for more info to help you out! Good luck and lets see some green screens!

DFS Golf – WGC Match Play Roster Construction

By Josh Thomas | Mar 20, 2018