DraftKings NBA Picks March 19: Giannis or LeBron?
We are back up to eight games on our Monday. There is a lot of value with Golden State in action tonight. Most of the highest priced options have tougher matchups. Are any of them worth using? Let’s take a look at this and all of the injuries causing value across the board.
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The winning lineup was down to a manageable 350.75. He built around Harden instead of Davis and got great value from Harkless, Aminu, and Mirotic to take this thing down.
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Tyreke Evans ($8,000): There aren’t a ton of great options at the point today, but if Evans is still starting for Memphis, he is a strong play. Evans has not been below 40 DraftKings points in any of the last four games. He came back as strong as he left. This is also a solid matchup against the Nets.
Eric Bledsoe ($7,600): Bledsoe racked up 38.75 DraftKings points in his only game against Cleveland this year. That leaves him over 5x value if he can do it again. Things have changed with George Hill in the fold for Cleveland, but I still don’t think they can hold Bledsoe under 5x value.
Goran Dragic ($7,300): We have seen a couple of nice games in a row from Dragic against teams that don’t defend the point well. The Heat get another tonight in Denver. Dragic put up 42.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Nuggets. Dragic should at least come close to 6x value tonight.
De’Aaron Fox ($5,600): Fox had a solid game against a good Utah defense over the weekend. That gives us hope for tonight against the Pistons. The rookie has still struggled with consistency this season, so there is some risk involved here. However, Fox is likely the most reliable target in this price range.
Cameron Payne ($4,700): Payne put up 32 DraftKings points starting for Kris Dunn on Saturday. Payne will get another start tonight against a weak Knicks point defense. There is value to be had for the Knicks as well, but Burke and Mudiay are both playing inconsistent minutes with Frank Ntilikina still stealing some from both. Payne is a much more sure thing, and the matchup is almost as good as if he were facing his own team.
Quinn Cook ($4,500): Cook has racked up 87 DraftKings points over the last two games with Stephen Curry out, and that was supposedly with a bruised hand. Whatever reason you come up with to not play Cook, ignore it. You need this value to have any chance of placing tonight.
My pick: Payne(PG), Cook(G), Burke(UTIL); Dragic(PG), Cook(G)
Victor Oladipo ($8,700): Oladipo has not hit value, even at this price, in the last six games. The only reason that he is on here tonight is because of the elite matchup with the Lakers. Collison could re-enter the starting lineup tonight, which would provide a boost to Oladipo’s value. At any rate, Oladipo put up 38.75 in the first meeting with the Lakers. That still leaves him under value, but with the Lakers at less than full strength, there is still some potential here.
Khris Middleton ($7,500): Middleton has only put up huge numbers when Giannis is out, but on an every game basis, Middleton is about as consistent as you can ask for. That makes him an huge asset in cash games. However, there is ample upside against Cleveland tonight to consider Middleton for GPP formats.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,900): This game tips early, so we should know whether Russell will start at the point or off the ball. This is very important tonight since the Grizzlies are top five in defense against the point, and bottom five against the off guard. If Russell doesn’t have to deal with Evans, he is a strong pick tonight. If Evans is on him, look elsewhere.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,100): The Bulls were bad even before the tanking began. They are even worse now. Hardaway is the most capable scorer that the Knicks have right now. He could be in for a very big night, assuming this doesn’t turn into a blowout. Can the Knicks really blow anyone out?
Denzel Valentine ($5,700): Valentine moved into the starting lineup with LaVine and Dunn both out. He responded with his best game of the season, scorching Cleveland for 57.75 DraftKings points. There is significant upside agianst the Knicks tonight as well, assuming he gets the start again. At any rate, we should know the Bulls starting lineup before lineups lock.
Jeremy Lamb ($4,200): I really have a hard time trusting Nick Young against the Spurs, so I will drop down to Lamb, who will be starting with Batum out. At least in theory. We will have a definitive answer before lineups lock, but Lamb seems to have the inside track. He put up some good numbers with Batum out earlier this season. There is no reason for Lamb not to do it again.
My pick: Lamb(SG); Valentine(SG)
LeBron James ($11,700): Yeah, this isn’t a great matchup for LeBron on paper. The Bucks are fifth in the league in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. Even LeBron has “only” averaged 55 DraftKings points per game against them in three tries. However, the King has three straight games of more than 70 DraftKings points. Fade at your own risk.
Michael Beasley ($6,600): Beasley has put up some huge games this year, and this is one of the more favorable matchups that he will have this year. Now the bad news: the Knicks don’t always turn him loose. Beasley’s minutes have fluctuated far more than they should, leaving him a risky play on any given night. Why the Knicks are doing this, who knows. It’s like putting a governor switch on a NASCAR car. It doesn’t make any sense!
Will Barton ($6,300): Gary Harris is going to miss the next week, which opens up a starting slot for Barton again. Barton is capable of big nights when the minutes are there. They will be tonight. Barton is a solid mid range play for the next week.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,000): Brandon Ingram is also still out, so Kuzma will get starter’s minutes once again. Kuzma was limited by a sore ankle on Saturday, but he still played 32 minutes and had a solid 26.5 DraftKings points. The ankle wont both him. Kuzma is a solid play when he starts.
Robert Covington ($5,900): Covington played just 24 minutes against the Nets on Friday due to foul trouble. He still played well when he was in there. Add to that the fact that Covington racked up 40 on this same Charlotte team about two weeks ago, and I see Covington as a very nice value play. Many will be off of him after his below average game on Friday. Maybe that can keep ownership down.
DeMarre Carroll ($5,500): Carroll has put up 79.75 DrafKings points over the last two games. With Memphis still kind of beat up, there is a good chance that Carroll keeps his hot streak going tonight. On paper this is not a great matchup, but Memphis is playing for ping pong balls, not a playoff spot.
Dillon Brooks ($5,000): Brooks has seven straight games with more than 20 DraftKings points. Six of them have been over 25 DraftKings points. He has established himself as a reliable scorer in this offense. That makes Brooks a relatively low risk option.
Jabari Parker ($4,500): The Bucks are still holding Parker to 24 minutes or less per game. That puts a hard cap on his production, but Parker is still a solid source of value. Parker is the most reliable scorer on the second unit, and the matchup against Cleveland is a good one.
My pick: James(SF); Barton(SF), Covington(F), Kuzma(UTIL)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800): Giannis has absolutely dominated the Cavs this year. He has 180.5 DraftKings points over the first three meetings this season, which puts him very close to 6x value, even at this price. Going by stats, Giannis has gotten the better of LeBron in all three meetings so far. Can he complete the sweep?
Draymond Green ($9,600): I do have a hard time paying this for Draymond. Green does have back to back 50+ DraftKings point outings in the last two games. With Curry and Durant out, Green has become a larger part of the offense, but I still don’t know that I trust him against the Spurs. That said, Green has averaged 45.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Spurs this year. And all of those had at least two of the three of Klay, Durant, and Curry playing.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,400): Griffin has mostly been a dog in Detroit, so I will opt for LMA against the depleted Warriors. Despite having Green on him for most of the first three meetings, Aldridge has averaged 47.7 DraftKings points per game against the Warriors this season. Aldridge could come up big again since he is about the only scorer that San Antonio has right now.
Julius Randle ($8,300): Randle has been playing well against everyone. It doesn’t matter how good they are on the interior. Only two teams have been able to hold him under 38 DraftKings points in the last dozen games. I doubt Indiana will be able to do it. Randle remains a very strong option if you don’t trust Aldridge against Green or aren’t paying for Giannis.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,400): RHJ has been over 5x value in each of the last three games. Memphis kept him under wraps in the first meeting, but this Memphis team is a shadow of what it was earlier in the year. I don’t really see anyone that can stop RHJ for the Grizzlies right now. Another solid game should be in store for Hollis-Jefferson.
James Johnson ($5,500): Is Johnson back? It certainly looks like it. Johnson has 84.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. Johnson also put up 40.5 in the first meeting against Denver. There is still plenty of minutes available for Johnson with Whiteside out. Considering how he did against Denver earlier this year, Johnson looks like a very nice value play tonight.
Noah Vonleh ($4,200): Vonleh could be in for big minutes with Lauri Markkanen already out. Portis will get plenty of run off the bench, but I like Vonleh to hit value for this price considering he will start if he is able to play. Keep an eye on the lineups heading towards lock. If Vonleh is in there, I want him in my lineup.
My pick: Antetokounmpo(PF), Johnson(F); Johnson(PF)
Andre Drummond ($8,900): Drummond has put up back to back 50+ DraftKings point games with Griffin struggling again. Drummond broke 50 in the first meeting with the Kings, and the Kings don’t have any more help up front than they did in the first meeting. Drummond looks like a strong bet, especially if Blake struggles again.
Nikola Jokic ($8,800): Pay no mind to that red number next to Jokic on DraftKings. That number is mostly with Whiteside in there. Even against Whiteside, Jokic put up 51.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. His ability to contribute in every category gives Jokic a high floor. Look for another strong game here tonight.
Marc Gasol ($7,900): Embiid and Howard have struggled against each other this year, so it seems reasonable to go with Gasol against the hopeless Nets. Gasol didn’t do much damage to Brooklyn in the first meeting. There is a chance that Green or Martin do more than Gasol does. At any rate, Gasol is still a very strong play on paper against the Nets. With the Grizzlies tanking, I don’t know that I really trust it though.
Kelly Olynyk ($5,800): Olynyk continues to outplay Bam with Hassan Whiteside still out. The Heat aren’t going to rush Olynyk into the starting lineup though. They love his bench production. That does put a cap on Olynyk’s upside, but do we really care? Olynyk has at least 23 DraftKings points in eight straight games.
John Henson ($5,300): On paper, this is a great matchup, but inexplicably, Henson has struggled against Cleveland this year. Maybe it’s because Giannis has put up such huge numbers. Who knows. The paper says Henson is a strong value play, but there is some risk involved here.
Ante Zizic ($3,700): The Cavs are dangerously thin at center, but even though Zizic is starting, he has had trouble putting up decent numbers. There is reason for optimism against the Bucks, but there is still risk involved here.
My pick: Zizic(C), Jokic(C)
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