Fantasy Football: QB rankings with projections

Tier 3

Tier 3 quarterbacks are very similar, all being starting-caliber options. This is where the crap shoot begins, as it’s hard to predict how each team’s passing attack will perform year-by-year. Touchdown rate isn’t a very predictive stat, yet it determines which of these quarterbacks will finish the year as QB1s. If you’ve managed to wait on quarterback past the first two tiers, it’d be a good idea to wait until the bottom of this tier to take one. There’s not much of a difference to your team’s value whether you end up taking Carson Wentz or Drew Brees.

Passing: 600 attempts, 4380 yards, 28 TDs, 10 Int

Rushing: 60 carries, 244 yards, 2 TDs

293.6 Fantasy Points

The best ginger quarterback in the NFL (not even close, Andy Dalton) should be a solid fantasy asset again this year, especially with an upgraded receiving core. Wentz was the QB2 in PPG in 2017, so he has upside, and he brings a rushing floor that passers being drafted around him don’t have. He’s not perfect, posting only 17.51 and 17.68 PPG the past two years, but there’s no harm in chasing upside with Wentz as your late round QB.

Passing: 579 attempts, 4174 yards, 29 TDs, 6 Int

Rushing: 45 carries, 205 yards, 1 TD

293.5 Fantasy Points

To the doubters saying Aaron Rodgers is in decline and doesn’t bring the same magic that he used to, I’ll mention this: he has 51 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in the past two seasons and he led the Packers to a 13-3 record last year. Unfortunately, he did have a disappointing fantasy season last year, finishing as the mere QB10, but that can be explained by the team’s game scripts inducing more rushes. Another contributor was Devante Adams’ injury. With a healthy Adams and wins regression, Rodgers could easily put up his old fantasy numbers again.

Passing: 616 attempts, 4558 yards, 31 TDs, 12 Int

Rushing: 23 carries, 30 yards, 2 TDs

293.3 Fantasy Points

Strangely, in terms of fantasy production, Jameis Winston leaves behind larger shoes to fill for Tom Brady than Brady did for Cam Newton. These metaphorical shoes don’t perfectly fit Brady’s smaller feet that prefer short passes to deep, risky bombs to Mike Evans. However, Brady is still a great quarterback gifted the best weapons of his career by Tampa. Provided this isn’t the year where his age becomes a problem, Brady’s a low-end QB1 with top-6 upside.

Passing: 620 attempts, 4743 yards, 29 TDs, 13 Int

Rushing: 33 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

292.2 Fantasy Points

Volume can be king. Matt Ryan is a master of directing high volume passing offenses, throwing over 600 passes in 6 of the past 8 years. He outscored Josh Allen and Kyler Murray last year despite only 34 rushing attempts and a sub-par 4.2% touchdown rate. He was also the QB2 in 2018 and 2016. Draft him to prove why the late round QB strategy works.

Passing: 550 attempts, 4235 yards, 31 TDs, 8 Int

Rushing: 18 carries, 27 yards, 2 TDs

288.1 Fantasy Points

Like Rodgers, Drew Brees isn’t showing signs of slowing down, posting a 59-9 touchdown to interception ratio in the past two seasons. His 7.1% TD rate should regress this year, but with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara helping him lead this elite Saints offense, Brees should be a very startable fantasy QB. He won’t win you your league, but he’s a safe option that you can start most weeks while your other skill positions do the heavy lifting.

Passing: 580 attempts, 4408 yards, 30 TDs, 11 Int

Rushing: 34 carries, 116 yards, 1 TDs

287.9 Fantasy Points

Can everyone calm down a little bit with the Matthew Stafford hype? No, I’m not saying that to keep his ADP low so I can draft him; I’m saying that because his numbers last year were unsustainable. He had a 6.5% TD rate, two full points higher than his 4.5% career average, and he threw for 8.6 yards per attempt, which is way higher than his 7.2 career average. I like Stafford this year, but don’t expect him to finish as the QB4 in PPG again. He’s definitely a startable option, but he hasn’t finished higher than the QB7 since his QB5 finish in 2011.

Passing: 592 attempts, 4025 yards, 29 TDs, 14 Int

Rushing: 60 carries, 330 yards, 3 TDs

286 Fantasy Points

If Daniel Jones stops shooting himself in the foot with turnovers, he’d be a great fantasy option this year. He’s had 4 weeks already with over 28 points, showing his potential when he turns it on. He also put on muscle this offseason to combat his major fumbling problem. Now, this doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to be a QB1, especially early in the year, as he starts off with brutal matchups against Pittsburgh, Chicago and San Francisco. If you draft him, be sure to also draft a safer QB with better early matchups and stash Jones for later.