Fantasy Football: QB rankings with projections

Tier 4

While researching recent trends, I discovered that there’s a very weak correlation between ADP and performance for quarterbacks being drafted in the fifth through eleventh rounds. This means that mid-round QBs have been historically very bad picks, because they constantly get outplayed by later picks. But as I said in that article, there are so many rushing QBs in the middle rounds this year, which makes drafting one very tempting. Rushing QBs bust less often and have a higher ceiling than non-mobile passers. Tier 2 consists of four similarly valued rushing quarterbacks, who should be starters almost every week in most leagues.

Passing: 579 attempts, 4545 yards, 28 TDs, 10 Int

Rushing: 55 carries, 282 yards, 4 TDs

320 Fantasy Points

You might have missed it if you weren’t paying attention, but Dak Prescott jumped from QB10 in 2018 to QB2 in 2019. He’s been balling ever since Amari Cooper joined the team and he was finally allowed to throw the ball over 500 times in a season. The Cowboys offense is actually scary this year, with Cooper joined by Michael Gallup,  CeeDee Lamb and of course, Ezekiel Elliott. Dak is poised for another great season in Dallas.

Passing: 520 attempts, 4153 yards, 31 TDs, 7 Int

Rushing: 70 carries, 340 yards, 2 TDs

316.1 Fantasy Points

Russell Wilson is the pinnacle of efficiency and consistency, posting a career TD rate of 6% over eight seasons without missing a single game. He’s been a QB1 every season of his career, including top-4 four times, all despite playing in a run-first offense. It’s okay to pass on Russ for a running back or wide receiver, but don’t make the mistake of passing on him for any QB ranked lower than him. This offseason, Wilson asked coach Pete Carroll to let him throw the ball more, and if Carroll listens, Wilson has QB1 upside.

Passing: 540 attempts, 4158 yards, 28 TDs, 13 Int

Rushing: 80 carries, 416 yards, 4 TDs

311.9 Fantasy Points

Deshaun Watson has been in the NFL three seasons and has finished as the QB1, QB4, and QB2 in points per game. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins will affect him, but Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, and the two D. Johnson receiving backs make up a fine receiving core. Watson is talented, runs the ball a lot, and has done nothing but produce since the second he stepped onto an NFL field. He’s falling in drafts because of the Hopkins trade, but he’ll be just fine without him, meaning he’s the best value pick in this tier.

Passing: 561 attempts, 4039 yards, 25 TDs, 11 Int

Rushing: 90 carries, 501 yards, 4 TDs

309.7 Fantasy Points

I’ve seen Kyler Murray ranked as high as the QB3 by some experts. Kyler was the QB7 as a rookie last year, so ranking him much higher than that is pretty risky. That’s exactly what happened with Baker Mayfield last year, which turned disastrous fast. The differences in Kyler’s situation from Baker’s last year are that new star WR DeAndre Hopkins is less injury prone than OBJ, and that Murray has a rushing floor to fall back on. I believe the Cardinals offense can take a big step forward this year, therefore Kyler Murray could be a top-3 fantasy QB. But I’m just not going to take that risk when the QBs being drafted around him have proven themselves much more than he has.

Passing: 515 attempts, 3708 yards, 23 TDs, 10 Int

Rushing: 102 carries, 561 yards, 6 TDs

304.4 Fantasy Points

Josh Allen isn’t an exciting passer, but he’s a heck of a dual threat. The Bills somehow seem to prefer him over Devin Singletary for goal line carries, which creates an absurd rushing floor for Allen. Over his career, he’s averaged 7.1 carries per game to go with 17 rushing touchdowns in 28 games. Allen won’t be an elite fantasy option unless he rises to Lamar Jackson levels of efficiency, but he should be locked in to finish as a QB1.