Philadelphia Eagles bouncing back in 2020 would be a mathematical miracle

Fans in Philadelphia expecting to see improvements should maybe find something else to watch for the next few months. 

All is not well with the Philadelphia Eagles.

There may not have been any fans in the stadium at Lincoln Financial Field, but Carson Wentz and Co. could not escape the boo-birds as the Eagles dropped to 0-2 with a 37-19 home defeat to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2.

Yes, per For The Win, the Eagles were subjected to virtual boos as they lined up for a punt. Kudos, crowd noise controller.

While the heat is firmly on Wentz and Doug Pederson, the Eagles are a long way from dead and buried given the mediocrity of the NFC East.

However, both the raw numbers and the advanced metrics are trending in the wrong direction for a team that entered the season holding hopes of a deep postseason run.

History against an Eagles revival

The Eagles are last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, which measure overall team efficiency. Per Aaron Schatz, the only team to be 32nd in DVOA through two weeks and still make the postseason is the 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers.

History is against the Eagles and a deeper dive inside the DVOA numbers leaves no doubt as to what the primary problem is. Philadelphia is 18th in defensive DVOA but 32nd on offense, a ranking that is unquestionably down to the Eagles’ futility throwing the football.

Indeed, the Eagles are sixth in rush offense DVOA but are last in pass offense, and they are last by some distance. Philadelphia’s pass offense DVOA rating is minus 58.2%, Washington – ranked 31st in pass offense – has a significantly superior rating of minus 33.4%.

Though some of the blame can be attributed to the offensive line, which ranks a lowly 27th in Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, there is overwhelming evidence the fault lies at the feet of the quarterback.

Wentz’s accuracy woes

It may be early in the season, but Wentz’s trajectory suggests there could soon be some calling for a change at the quarterback position.

He is last among 34 qualifying players in QB DVOA, which measures value per play, and Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which measures total value.

Again, the margin is a wide one. Wentz has a DVOA rating of minus 69 and DYAR of minus 349. Daniel Jones, the quarterback immediately above him in both categories, boasts a DVOA rating of minus 38.4 and a DYAR of minus 158.

Wentz has not had the benefit of good protection from a banged-up offensive line, yet there is data that indicates he is becoming increasingly inaccurate.

Through two weeks Wentz has a completion percentage of 58.8. According to NextGen Stats, his expected completion (xCOMP%) percentage is 67.7. In other words, Wentz is completing 8.8 percent fewer throws than he should be doing. Only Dwayne Haskins, who is underperforming his xCOMP% by 10.6 percent, has been worse in that regard.

The former second overall pick is not solely to blame for the Eagles’ struggles, but, if he cannot reverse this trend, Wentz will be the main reason for their failure to turn things around.

The Ravens are getting better

The Ravens were, by most measures, the best regular-season team in the NFL in 2019. They went 14-2 and finished first in total DVOA with a rating of 41.2%.

Baltimore famously slipped up in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and made a host of moves in the offseason to avoid the same turn of events this season.

The steps the Ravens front office took appear to be paying off, Baltimore looks even better than it did last season and the numbers reflect that. Baltimore is again first in DVOA after two weeks with a rating of 60.6% – the Seattle Seahawks (34.1%) are second – while the Ravens’ MVP quarterback is on track to take another leap forward.

Lamar Jackson outperformed his xCOMP% of 65.3 by just 0.8 percent last year. So far in 2020, he has an xCOMP% of 65.4 but is completing 77.6 percent of his passes.

Baltimore never got a shot at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs last season. The Ravens will face the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 3 and are excellently placed to hand the defending champions their first loss.

Rapid Raheem

It has been a rough start to the season for the San Francisco 49ers, who are 1-1 but have seen their roster decimated by the injury bug.

Among those to suffer an injury in the Week 2 win over the New York Jets was running back Raheem Mostert, who sustained a sprained MCL. He will definitely miss the Week 3 clash with the New York Giants on Sunday but the Niners will hope to get Mostert back sooner rather than later, as he is a player who looks destined for a career year.

The hero of the NFC Championship game, Mostert is averaging 3.07 Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) per attempt, according to NextGen Stats. In a nutshell, he is gaining just over three yards more than would be anticipated every time he carries the ball. Only Kareem Hunt (3.13), is outperforming him in RYOE.

Where Mostert is unmatched so far is in his speed carrying the ball. After breaking the NextGen Stats fastest ball carrier record in Week 1 on his 76-yard receiving touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals – clocking 22.73mph – he did it again on the first play of the game versus the Jets. Mostert reached 23.09mph as he took an 80-yard run to the house.

In a league filled with speedsters, Mostert has a legitimate claim to the title of the fastest man in the NFL.