NFL Week 6 Upset Picks (Back Jets, Broncos as Huge Dogs, Patrick Mahomes Beats Bills in This Week's Predictions)

The beauty of the NFL is the league’s parity, as it seems there is at least one major upset every week. 

You know what’s even better? Picking that upset. 

Each week the BetSided team shares their favorite upset picks, and even though we didn’t hit one last week, we’re still 10-14 on the season (+3.68 units). We’re looking to bounce back in Week, so let’s jump into the best upsets to pick for this week’s slate: 

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 6 of 2022 Season

Seattle Seahawks (+122) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks are frisky, and I can't justify Arizona as a road favorite against a team that has scored 23 or more points in three straight games. 

To be honest, Seattle may be the better team, outperforming Arizona on both sides of the ball in terms of success rate. While the Cards have played a slightly more difficult schedule to date, I'll side with the home team. – Reed Wallach

Denver Broncos (+190) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers were hyped up all offseason as a dark horse Super Bowl contender, but it turns out they're the same old Chargers. Their "rebuilt" defense was supposed to be a top tier unit, but they rank in the bottom of the NFL in most categories. 

Despite people clowning the Denver Broncos through the first five weeks, I think Denver can take advantage of this defensive mismatch and upset Los Angeles on Monday Night Football.

The Chargers enter the game ranking 28th in opponent yards per play, allowing 6.1 yards per snap. The Broncos, on the other hand, rank sixth in the NFL in that stat, allowing just 4.7 yards per play. That's a difference of 1.4 yards per play, which is huge.

Also, the strength of that stout Broncos defense is their secondary. They're second in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing just 5.2 yards per throw. That's bad news for the Chargers, because 74.59% of their offensive yards gained comes through the air, which is the fourth highest mark in the NFL. You can attack this Broncos defense on the ground, but if you're forced to rely on your passing game, as the Chargers are, it's going to be a tough battle. I'll take the Broncos to win outright. – Iain MacMillan

Miami Dolphins (+135) vs. Minnesota Vikings

This appears to be the right spot to back the Miami Dolphins with Teddy Bridgewater likely to return this week at home against a Minnesota Vikings team whose record feels a bit overrated.

Minnesota, despite its 4-1 start is only 1-4 against the spread this year, and has not made many second half adjustments defensively.

Miami’s speed on the outside with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be problematic, and Raheem Mostert should control the run game against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins are also far superior at home, winning eight straight and are 7-1 ATS over that period as well. – Ben Heisler

New York Jets (+270) at Green Bay Packers

I’m not too high on the Green Bay Packers’ defense, which some may still think is one of the elite ones in the league. Green Bay’s defense, although No. 11 in scoring, is closer to an average defense than an elite one. The Packers are 14th in opponent yards per play and 21st in opponent red zone touchdown scoring.

The New York Jets come into this game on a two-game winning streak and Zach Wilson has looked solid. Furthermore, Breece Hall has entered the picture as a dynamic lead back. If New York continues to throw the ball with volume and get Hall involved early, they’ll be within striking distance of the Packers.

Green Bay has gotten away with it a few times this season, but not this week. – Donnavan Smoot

New England Patriots (+126) vs. Cleveland Browns

The New England Patriots dominated the Detroit Lions under rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe, and I’m ready to hop on the train again in Week 6.

The Cleveland Browns keep playing close games and finding a way to lose late, and they have a tough Patriots defense to deal with that held the Lions’ top offense to zero points in Week 5. 

As long as Zappe takes care of the ball again, I think New England can control this game on the ground and defensively against Jacoby Brissett and company. – Peter Dewey

Kansas City Chiefs (+120) vs. Buffalo Bills

Any time you can back Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, you do it. He's 7-0-1 ATS in his career and gets the Buffalo Bills at home, where he's 34-8 including the playoffs.

Buffalo is a talented team, looking unstoppable when it's at its best. But the Bills looked shaky in a loss to Miami and a close win over the Ravens. The team is filled with injuries both offensively and defensively, while Kansas City is relatively healthy.

The Chiefs are ninth in yards per play (5.8) and eighth in opponent yards per play (5.0). While the Bills have better ranks in both categories, we've seen Patrick Mahomes rise above against tough competition before.

At the least, I view this game as a coin-flip. Thus, I'll go with the better quarterback and healthier roster at home to emerge victorious. – Joe Summers

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.