March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on March 15
March Madness Bubble Watch: Next Four Out
Team | Wake Forest | Villanova | Ohio State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 |
Record | 20-13 (11-9) | 18-15 (10-10) | 20-12 (9-11) | 20-14 (7-11) |
NET | 44 | 39 | 53 | 38 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-7 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 4-11 |
Quad 2 Record | 8-5 | 5-1 | 3-5 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-1 | 9-3 | 14-1 | 13-2 |
Strength Of Schedule | 73 | 18 | 49 | 52 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 253 | 46 | 255 | 300 |
Last Game | L 81-69 Vs. Pittsburgh | L 71-65 (OT) Vs. No. 10 Marquette | W 90-78 Vs. Iowa | L 68-56 Vs. No. 14 Baylor |
Next Game | N/A | N/A | Vs. No. 12 Illinois 3/16 | N/A |
A loss to Pitt on Thursday essentially ended the season for Wake Forest, who racked up just one Quad 1 win and saw their NET tumble to 44 thanks to some bad late-season losses. The Demon Deacons are on the page thanks to good predictive metrics but their chances are slim.
While a 15th loss all but ended Villanova's chances, the death blow realistically happened the night before when the Wildcats only won by three over a three-win DePaul team. That result hurt their NET rating, which had been very high for a 14-loss team, and this looks like a team that simply has too many losses to overcome for the committee.
Ohio State is on the page for the first time after essentially swapping paths with Iowa after blowing out the Hawkeyes on Thursday. A win against No. 12 Illinois today would be the fourth Quad 1 victory for the Buckeyes and put them on a path to become a potential bid thief.
The metrics like the Bearcats better than Kansas State, which is why they're the last entry on the next four out section, but Cincinnati is going to have a hard time overcoming a 4-11 mark in Quad 1 games. Playing nobody outside of league play either will also ding the Bearcats, who haven't shown enough of an ability to beat the best teams to merit selection.