MLB: 2013 Quarter-Season Review, AL Edition

Greetings! As MLB teams approach the “quarter pole” of their long, 162-game slate, it is time to take a look at what has transpired in the opening weeks of the 2013 season. There have been positive surprises, early-season letdowns (cough, Los Angeles Angels), and breakout performances in the early going, and we’ll take a look at each division combined with some way, way too early award picks. First up? The American League. Let’s go!

AL EAST

In a season where many expected the AL East to be turned upside-down from the norm, things look very similar to the status quo thus far.

The Yankees are currently in 1st-place on the strength of a 24-14 record, and they’ve done it without the services of Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez. How is that possible? Well, Vernon Wells (!!!) has 9 home runs (.875 OPS) and 4 steals on the season and they’ve even gotten positive contributions from Travis Hafner (6 home runs in 115 PA’s) and Lyle Overbay. Team that with a great bullpen led by the full-on return of Mariano Rivera and a great start from Hiroki Kuroda (2.31 ERA in 50.2 innings) and you have an unlikely division leader. 

Baltimore is right on the heels of the Yankees with a 23-15 record, and any thought of their close-game “magic” running out after 2012 seems to be unfounded. They’ve done it offensively on the back of young stud Manny Machado (.891 OPS, gold glove defense) and 11 home runs from Chris Davis, but it has really been the pitching (read: bullpen) that has kept them winning close games. Jim Johnson has been one of the best closers in all of baseball thus far, sporting a sparking 0.95 with 14 saves, and it seems like deja vu all over again in Baltimore. 

The Red Sox have lost 8 of 10 games as I write this… and they are still 22-16 after a red-shot start. Clay Buchholz (6-0, 1.69 ERA) and Jon Lester (5-0, 2.73 ERA) have re-emerged as “studs” in the early going, and Boston has even gotten 22.1 quality innings from John Lackey. Offensively, David Ortiz came back from the DL with a torrid stretch, and even after a small swoon, still has a .973 OPS in 81 plate appearances. Boston doesn’t seem to be going anywhere as long as they are getting top-level pitching from their new “big two”, but the bullpen is something to watch for as Joel Hanrahan was placed on the 60-day DL and the oft-injured Andrew Bailey is already banged up.

Tampa Bay is Tampa Bay. They are hanging around at 19-18 despite a woeful 6-12 road record, and as usual, their pitching and Evan Longoria are carrying the majority of the weight. Matt Moore (2.20 ERA, 9.21 K/9) and Alex Cobb (3.09 ERA) are picking up the slack from a slow-starting David Price (4.78 ERA thus far), but on the whole, the Rays’ pitching has been strong yet again. The bullpen has become a concern, however, as last year’s breakout stud Fernando Rodney has scuffled to a walk-rate of 7.24 per 9 (which is almost impossible), and back-up plan Jake McGee has been even worse (9.64 ERA). Their offense will always be the concern as they wait for help from Wil Myers, but Longoria has been a revelation so far (1.013 OPS, 9 home runs) and if they can keep him on the field, there’s a high floor there.

Finally, the basement is occupied by the seemingly over-hyped Toronto Blue Jays. Admittedly, I tabbed the Jays for 1st place in the preseason, and things couldn’t have gone more wrong in the first 39 games. Toronto has given up 201 runs (2nd-worst in MLB) and their new/expensive pitching staff is a mess. RA Dickey is looking like the old RA Dickey thus far, as the NL Cy Young winner has a 5.06 ERA and a walk-rate over 4.00, and the other “prize” acquisition, Josh Johnson, posted a 6.86 ERA before giving way to yet another injury. Offensively, it hasn’t been all roses either, as Jose Reyes exited to the 60-day DL and Melky Cabrera is reminding people of his Atlanta Braves days (not a positive thing). There’s still hope for Toronto as they get healthy, but a 9.5-game hole looms, and they’ll need some production from unlikely sources.

AL CENTRAL

Coming into the year, this was the one division in baseball with a “consensus” leader, and that team has managed to ascend to the top.

Detroit is in pole position after beginning the season 21-15. In fact, they’ve probably been a bit unlucky in amassing that record, as the Tigers currently lead all of MLB in run differential at +58. Miguel Cabrera (1.025 OPS, 7 HR, 40 RBI) has been the best player in the American League, and Prince Fielder (.969 OPS, 9 HR) hasn’t been much worse to carry the AL’s best offense. On the pitching side, they’ve gotten exactly what they expected from Justin Verlander (1.93 ERA), Max Scherzer (11.60 K/9), and Doug Fister (3.14 ERA, 3.03 FIP), but the revelation has been a lights-out performance from Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has a stunning K-rate of 11.28 and an ERA of just 2.05 to become one of the early Cy Young candidates. The bullpen is an issue (Bruce Rondon? Jose Valverde? Anybody?), but the Tigers are good.

The Indians are semi-surprisingly nipping at the heels of Detroit with a 21-16 mark. They’ve used quality seasons from Justin Masterson (3.14 ERA in 63 innings) and Zach McAllister (2.68 ERA) to get just enough pitching, and the breakout is finally here from stud catcher Carlos Santana. Santana has an OPS over 1.000 with 7 home runs, and he’s been joined in the power department with 11 bombs from previous laughingstock Mark Reynolds. It’s a patch-work roster in Cleveland, but if they get anything from Ubaldo Jimenez or Trevor Bauer, they’ll hang around.

Kansas City has been on the “edge” of a breakout for years, and they’ve played quality baseball through 35 games. Shockingly, they’ve done it with pitching, as the Royals have allowed just 138 runs (2nd in the AL) thanks to some quality imports in their rotation. James Shields has been as good as advertised, eating up innings (58 in only 8 starts) and posting quality results (2.48 ERA), while Ervin Santana has been a revelation (2.79 ERA) in his KC debut. The bats (namely Hosmer and Moustakas) will need to wake up for the Royals to hang around, but it’s nice to see them competitive.

Hello, Minnesota. The Twins are over .500! Most people (myself included) had the Twins in the cellar to start the season, but they’ve impressed thus far. Joe Mauer (.926 OPS, 47 hits) anchors a pedestrian offense, and frankly, it’s a wonder that they’ve been able to score 166 runs with some of the production they’ve received from their young guys (I’m looking at you, Aaron Hicks). The pitching has been better, however, and Kevin Correia has managed to put up one of the weirdest stat lines in all of baseball. The soft-tossing Correia has just 3.86 K/9 on the season (hilariously low), but somehow has been able to post a 3.09 ERA in the early going. I don’t believe in the Twins at all, but they’re still here.

The White Sox bring up the rear after a 15-21 start, and they simply have been unable to score. They have an AL-low 123 runs through 36 games (3.4 per game) and only the duo of Alejandro de Aza (7 HR, 5 SB) and Alex Rios (8 HR, 6 SB) have kept them afloat. Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn both have signs of being “done” (neither has an OPS over .625), and the lineup wasn’t particularly deep at the outset. On the mound, Chris Sale is lights-out (2.88 ERA), but they have some injury issues, and the offense isn’t allowing Addison Reed many opportunities at the back-end. It’s too early to bail on the White Sox if you were a believer, but they have to hit.

AL WEST

The good, the bad, and the ugly certainly applies to this year’s version of the AL West.

Texas currently occupies their “usual” position atop the division with a sparkling 24-14 record. It hasn’t been the easiest road for the Rangers, as they’ve had to rely on guys like Justin Grimm and Nick Tepesch (who!?!) in the absence of opening-day starter Matt Harrison, but nonetheless, they’ve played very well. Yu Darvish has been downright scary, posting a K-rate of 13.67 per 9 and an ERA of 2.73, while the Derek Holland breakout tour is gathering steam with his 2.54 early-season ERA. Offensively, there is room for improvement as Adrian Beltre and David Murphy (.256 OBP) have gotten off to slow starts, but the Lance Berkman acquisition has proved to be a good one, and they’ve certainly got power.

Remember when Oakland was a pitching team? They aren’t anymore. The A’s have scored the 2nd-most runs in the AL and allowed the 4th-most runs in the league in route to a 20-20 record. Coco Crisp (.944 OPS, 5 HR, 8 SB) may have been the leading MVP candidate before he went down with injury, and they’ve gotten big-time production from guys like Adam Rosales and Josh Donaldson. If Josh Reddick (.250 slugging percentage) can wake up from his slumber, the Oakland offense could be formidable. On the bump, their “ace” Jarrod Parker has wildly struggled (6.86 ERA), but with the help of AJ Griffin and Tommy Milone, they’ve kept things afloat. The ballpark always helps, but they’ll need better from Parker and Brett Anderson.

Seattle is one of the more under-the-radar teams in all of baseball. At 18-20, they don’t do anything particularly well, and as a result, no one talks about the Mariners. Felix Hernandez has been FELIX HERNANDEZ this year, putting up a 1.53 ERA over 58.2 innings, but outside of him and Hisashi Iwakuma (1.74 ERA), the starters have been a mess. Offensively, Kyle Seager and Michael Saunders are mashing while Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, and Dustin Ackley are scuffling. The M’s have had serious issues with developing young hitters, and if that trio can’t get on track, they have a low ceiling for 2013.

The biggest “surprise” of the entire 2013 season thus far has been the less-than-stellar play of the LA Angels. At 14-24, they’ve been an abject disaster in comparison to their lofty expectations, and everything that can go wrong has done so. Albert Pujols has a negative WAR after hitting .234 thus far, Josh Hamilton’s OPS hasn’t reached .700 yet (and he’s looked even worse), and the Joe Blanton experience (6.46 ERA) hasn’t worked in Los Angeles. On top of that, stud pitcher Jered Weaver has been on the shelf for a month, and there’s no defined timetable for his return. Should they be 14-24 with a -41 run differential? Probably not, but they’ll need a big-time push from Pujols and Hamilton combined with better performance from mid-tier pitchers like Jason Vargas in order to right the ship.

Lastly, the lowly Houston Astros have no chance. It seems harsh to say that, but at 10-29 and with a -86 run differential already (yikes), it’s a predictably lost season in Houston. The big “story” (outside of their massive rebuild) will be Houston’s quest to avoid historical futility in the loss column, and they’ll need to improve to do so. Houston doesn’t have a single starting pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA (Bud Norris leads them at 4.32), and they only have one “regular” (Jose Altuve) with an OBP north of .340. It’s a Triple-A team masquerading as an MLB team in a gauntlet division, and there’s not a lot else to say about that.

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To the awards! Yes, it’s incredibly early to start handing out hardware, but there have been some stellar early-season performances, and they deserve a tip of the cap.

AL Rookie of the Year – Nick Tepesch, SP Texas

It’s been a rough year for rookie candidates in the American League, so Tepesch gets the nod. His ERA/FIP numbers are nothing to write home about (4.03/4.01), but Tepesch has some nice peripherals (2.37 walks per 9) and has thrown quality innings for the best team in the AL West. With front-runners like Aaron Hicks (.542 OPS) struggling wildly, Tepesch is the only “contender” who hasn’t hurt his club in the early stages. It would shock me if Tepesch won the award at the end of the year, but he’s been the best rookie thus far.

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez, SP Seattle

Honestly, this isn’t an easy decision. Felix leads a big group of candidates (Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander, Yu Darvish to be specific), but his sparkling 1.53 ERA gives him the nod. Hernandez doesn’t have the same strikeout power (thus far) as the other 3, but his 8.59 K/9 is more than acceptable, and he’s thrown the 2nd-most innings in the AL (behind Justin Masterson) this season. You can’t go wrong with any of the four guys I’ve mentioned, but in a bind, give me King Felix.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria, 3B Tampa Bay

Here’s another close call. Longoria is 4th in the AL in OPS (1.012), 4th in batting average, 9th in OBP, and 5th in home runs. If this was the “offensive player of the year” award, it would probably go to Miguel Cabrera (higher OPS, higher batting WAR, etc.), but with the significant edge that Longoria has on Cabrera defensively, he gets the nod. He’s been the pillar of the entire Tampa Bay offense this season, and since he hasn’t been injured (yet), his value is immense. Other candidates (outside of Cabrera) include Mike Trout and Manny Machado (who leads the AL in Baseball-Reference WAR), but give me the guy who leads the AL in Fangraphs WAR (2.5) and the guy who is absolutely carrying an offense on his back.

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There you have it! Stay tuned for the National League version to come.