MLB: 2013 Quarter-Season Review, NL Edition

Greetings! As MLB teams approach the “quarter pole” of their long, 162-game slate, it is time to take a look at what has transpired in the opening weeks of the 2013 season. There have been positive surprises, early-season letdowns (cough, Los Angeles Angels), and breakout performances in the early going, and we’ll take a look at each division combined with some way, way too early award picks. If you missed it, check out the American League version, but it’s on to part 2 with the National League. Let’s go!

NL EAST

If you had told me that there would be exactly one NL East team with a positive run differential, I wouldn’t have believed you, but that’s the case through the first quarter.

The Braves are the current class of the NL East at 22-16 and at a +30, they’re currently 3rd in the NL in run differential. It’s been an incredibly interesting experiment in Atlanta, as they’ve put together an extremely strikeout-prone lineup while also leading the NL in home runs with 52. Justin Upton has been a world-beater, but the strength of the lineup is in their depth, and with Brian McCann’s hot streak after coming off of injury, they may even be better than their record. The pitching lacks a “true” number 1 starter, but Mike Minor has done a good impression of one (2.75 ERA this season after a crazy-good 2nd half of 2012) and the bullpen is among the best in baseball.

Washington was the consensus NL favorite coming into the year, and while their record hasn’t quite matched that pace, they are still a good club. Bryce Harper has been everything he was cracked up to be (1.022 OPS, 10 home runs) and Ian Desmond has followed up his breakout year with another fine start. After that, however, the lineup has faltered a bit as Adam Laroche (.602 OPS) and Ryan Zimmerman struggle to get things going. Their vaunted starting rotation has taken a bit of a hit as well, as Stephen Strasburg has been good but not great (3.10 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez has fallen off in a big way (4.20 ERA). Jordan Zimmermann has been a world-beater, but they’ll need more from their other top options, and the “old” Dan Haren would be a plus as well. 

This isn’t your older brother’s Philadelphia team. Chase Utley has found his old form (.856 OPS with 7 HR and 4 SB), but outside of his throwback performance, the Philly offense has been a mess. They’ve managed a woeful 138 runs through 39 games (18-21 record) and the Michael Young (.395 slugging) and Ben Revere acquisitions have fallen short thus far. Ryan Howard is also a major concern as an all-bat, no-glove guy who can’t hit lefties (still), and I’m not sure that’s going to improve. On the pitching side, the Roy Halladay conundrum has been covered in detail, but it looks as if he may be “done” after a dreadful start. In his absence, they desperately need top from from Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, and while Lee has been lights-out (2.86 ERA), Hamels is still sporting a 4.18 ERA as the calendar turns to mid-May. Philly is a solid club, but I don’t see them contending without some vast improvements.

The Mets will likely be only covered once every 5 days this season. Matt Harvey has been incredible for New York this year, but outside of his dominance (we’ll come back to him), it’s been pretty uneventful. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th starters for New York (Niese, Gee, and Hefner) all have ERA’s above 4.60 and with Shaun Marcum looking washed-up, it may be a rough summer. In the lineup, David Wright is a monster (.928 OPS, 5 HR, 7 SB), but the supporting cast (namely Ike Davis) has been woeful, and they simply can’t generate the production needed to compete in this division.

Will the Marlins ever score a run!? Through 38 games, Miami has 108 runs scored. The next-lowest run total for any MLB team is 123 by the White Sox… in two less games. Translation? The Miami offense is dreadful. Their bellcow, Giancarlo Stanton, has only 88 plate appearances due to injury, and outside of him, the only Major-League level hitter is Justin Ruggiano (who has 7 HR and 5 SB). There isn’t a remedy for bad offense, and it’s not going anywhere. Their pitching is semi-respectable between rookie Jose Fernandez and re-emergences from Kevin Slowey and Ricky Nolasco, but I can stop typing now.

NL CENTRAL

There will be a battle in the NL Central all season, and the fact that Cincinnati and St. Louis are rivals makes the tension even larger.

The Cardinals are a blazing 24-13 out of the gate, and that 37-game mark is good for the best in the National League. It seems that every time the calendar turns to April, the Cardinals just re-load and do it again, and this is no different. Carlos Beltran (9 HR), Matt Carpenter (.373 OBP) and Matt Holliday key a solid offense, but the pitching is where St. Louis is making waves. They’ve allowed a league-low 125 runs and the five-some of Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lancy Lynn, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia has been incredible. None of the 5 has an ERA over 2.88, and Wainwright has been a top-5 pitcher in the National League. It’s probably unsustainable (especially for Westbrook and Garcia), but the Cards are here to stay.

Cincinnati owns the best home record in baseball at 16-6, and the Great American Ballpark has been the definition of “friendly confines” this year. Even with only 17 innings from Johnny Cueto, the Reds have patched together a solid rotation, and Mat Latos leads the way with a 3.04 ERA over 50.1 innings. Tony Cingrani has been a revelation after arriving from the minors, and while there’s speculation of an imminent demotion, his deceptive delivery has kept the opposition on their heels (2.89 ERA, 11.89 K/9). Offensively, the Reds have one of the best hitters alive in Joey Votto, and both he and Shin-Soo Choo have OBP numbers of over .440 on the young season. They’ll need to get Jay Bruce (3 HR) going, but it’s a deep offense that will keep them in contention.

Can the Pirates do it? Can they finish over .500 for the first time since 1992? A 21-17 start is a good sign for their ability to do so, and the pitching just needs to hold up over 162 games. AJ Burnett (yes, THAT AJ Burnett) has an amazing season going with a 2.73 ERA and 11.57 K/9 (insane for a starter) in his 56 innings. Behind him, things haven’t always been pretty with guys like James McDonald (who has fallen apart since the 1st-half of 2012), but Jeff Locke and Wandy Rodriguez have picked up the slack a bit. With the bats, they’ve been able to produce big-time run totals despite a so-so start from their leader, OF Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen has an OPS of only .753 (4 HR, 7 SB), but Starling Marte has been red-hot all season (5 HR, 10 SB, .389 OBP) and they’ve gotten power across the board.

Milwaukee is the definition of a “meh” team on paper. With that said, they’ve had 3 of the best players in the entire National League this season. Ryan Braun (their resident star) has almost taken a back seat (despite a .975 OPS) to both Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez so far, and with good reason. Segura is currently sporting a 1.000 OPS (exactly) with 6 home runs and 13 steals from the shortstop position, and while those video-game numbers stick out, Carlos Gomez has nearly matched them with a 1.042 OPS (!!), 6 home runs, and 8 steals of his own. Now, you ask yourself… how are the Brewers 16-20?! The answer is in the pitching. Outside of a solid Kyle Lohse debut (3.53 ERA), the rotation is a mess with Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada having ERA’s over 4.70. The truth is somewhere in the middle, as both Segura and Gomez are sure to cool off while the pitchers emerge, but they are likely no better than a .500 club.

Go ahead and add another year of “wait” to the Cubs. At 16-22, they’re 8.5 games back of the Cardinals and they’re  heading the other direction. On the bright side for Chicago, they just locked up young stud Anthony Rizzo to a 7-year extension, but other than a nice year from him (9 HR, .875 OPS), the offense has sputtered. The pitching is in good hands with former Notre Dame football player Jeff Samardzija (3.70 ERA, 10.54 K/9), but hot starts from Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva will cool down shortly, and they’ll be left with a middling (at best) roster.

NL WEST

$200 million doesn’t buy what it used to. Just ask the Dodgers.

The defending champion San Francisco Giants own the NL West lead with a 23-15 record. Every year, we examine their roster and think, “how do they do this?”, but they always come through. In 2013, San Francisco has relied on lights-out work from Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito (not the names you’d expect) in the pitching staff as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum work through issues, and with the bats, they seem to get production from almost everywhere. Buster Posey is an absolute stud (.920 OPS, 5 HR), but they have 4+ homers from Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Crawford, and Hunter Pence, and that pretty much sums things up.

Arizona has a new “gritty” (copyright, Kirk Gibson) approach, and it seems to be working. Aside from the wretched trade that shipped Justin Upton to Atlanta (yikes), Kevin Towers has pushed the right buttons. Even with a struggling Martin Prado, the D-Backs have managed to score runs, thanks to a breakout from Paul Goldschmidt (10 h0me runs, .993 OPS) and fringe production from guys like AJ Pollock and Eric Chavez. The pitching doesn’t scare anyone, but Patrick Corbin has been dealing to the tune of a 1.75 ERA, and Trevor Cahill is beginning to deliver on his prospect promise.

The Rockies are back to their old, mashing ways. Colorado is 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and their “big five” is the reason. Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, Dexter Fowler, and Wilin Rosario each sport OPS’s of over .800, and at least 7 home runs on the season, single-handedly carrying a top-heavy lineup. Tulo is a pure injury risk, but it’s easy to forget his greatness when he’s on the field, and he’s been tremendous. The rotation is where things fall apart in Colorado, but Jhoulys Chacin (2.70 ERA) and Jorge De la Rosa (2.98 ERA) have been both solid after long-term injuries, and if they can sustain that success, Colorado will be competitive.

San Diego is following their usual protocol. They have trouble scoring, they can win games in their spacious ballpark, and they’re falling out of contention at a rapid rate. Without the benefit of a single, top-flight pitcher, their patchwork rotation (led by Clayton Richard) fails away from Petco Park, and the bats aren’t good enough to sustain success. Chase Headley is a player to watch, but the Padres don’t have the talent level to challenge San Francisco and company.

The two biggest messes in MLB are both in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are 1-A to the Angels. They lost Zack Greinke after just 11.1 innings, Chad Billingsley after 12 innings, and Chris Capuano after 15 (dreadful) innings. Before the season, they had a pitching “surplus”, but now, they are left with the always-dominant Clayton Kershaw (1.62 ERA in 55.2 innings) and not a lot else outside of rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu. Offensively, the injury bug also hit the Dodgers, as Hanley Ramirez has missed much of the season, but the bigger issue is the production of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Kemp, once an MVP player, has scuffled in a big way, with only 1 home run in 156 PA’s, and Ethier hasn’t been much better as his failure to hit left-handed pitching shines through. It is too early to turn out the lights on a very, very talented roster, but LA has dug a deep hole (7.5 games back of San Fran) and it’s time to climb out.

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To the awards! Yes, it’s incredibly early to start handing out hardware, but there have been some stellar early-season performances, and they deserve a tip of the cap.

NL Rookie of the Year – Shelby Miller, SP St. Louis

The NL rookie class is much, much better than the AL version this season. Shelby Miller gets my nod on the strength of a 1.58 ERA in his first 45.2 innings this season, and frankly, he’d be a top-10 Cy Young candidate if the season ended today. He’s been almost unhittable (10.05 Ks per 9), and at the tender age of 22, he’s going to be a monster. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Evan Gattis both have claims more worthy than those of anyone in the American League, but Miller is the runaway winner.

NL Cy Young – Matt Harvey, SP New York

Matt Harvey has taken the National League (and really, all of the Majors) by storm in his first 8 starts this year. In 56.1 innings, he’s posted a 1.44 ERA (!!) with a strikeout rate of 9.91 per 9 innings and recently fell just short of a no-hitter. He’s been the lone bright spot on an otherwise wretched Mets season, but Harvey has been the best pitcher in the league thus far. Adam Wainwright (2.2 WAR, 0.61 walks per 9) would certainly be a worthy and deserving choice (as would Clayton Kershaw and Jordan Zimmermann), but it’s been the year of Matt Harvey thus far.

NL MVP – Justin Upton

Atlanta GM Frank Wren must have a good chuckle when he thinks back to his conversations with Arizona GM Kevin Towers this off-season. “What’s that? Justin Upton is available?… For that?!” Upton has been the best player in the NL this year, slugging .644 in knocking 13 home runs in only 162 plate appearances, and in doing so, he’s led Atlanta to the NL East lead. There are certainly deserving candidates (Carlos Gomez, Bryce Harper, Jean Segura), but Upton stands above the rest, and Kevin Towers is to thank for every Braves fan.

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In the end, it’s been a highly eventful and entertaining quarter of the MLB season. As the summer heats up, it’ll be interesting to see how the landscape changes, but at the very least, it’ll be must-see TV.