The Unbeatens: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide

 

Nov 9, 2013; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback AJ McCarron (10) signals at the line of scrimmage against the LSU Tigers during the third quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The folks at Bovada and Prediction Machine have been kind off to send over their schedule simulations for the six remaining unbeaten teams in college football.

Next up, the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.

Current Power Rank: 1
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 42
Undefeated Chances: 65.2%
Closest Remaining Game: @ Auburn (Nov 30)
Teams that would be favored over Alabama on a neutral field: None
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 65.2% (if Alabama wins out, the Tide should be in)

A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

  • Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 8 (after conference title games): 1.2% (or 1-in-82)
  • Chances Alabama, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 7.6% (or 1-in-13)
  • Chances that Alabama, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 3.9% (or 1-in-26)
  • Chances that there are no undefeated teams in FBS on December 8: 1.0% (or 1-in-100)
  • Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 24.7%

BCS Championship Games

Using the same simulation technology, we can simulate potential BCS National Championship games to project the likelihood of either team winning each possible game, including an average score outcome. Here are all possible games involving the four BCS-AQ undefeated teams (also, though Stanford is currently in the top four of the BCS Standings, all of these teams would be favored in our numbers over the Cardinal on a neutral field – though Ohio State would be just less than a one point favorite in the projection). Games listed in order of current likelihood (figures assume this scenario when both teams undefeated).

Alabama vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 42.7%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 53% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 27 – Florida State 25

Alabama vs. Baylor
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 8.3%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 64% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 37 – Baylor 30

Alabama vs. Ohio State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 6.8%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 73% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 34 - Ohio State 25

Here’s how the Tide close out the season:

November 16 at Mississippi State, 7:00 pm EST, ESPN2
November 23 vs. Chattanooga, 2:00 pm EST, TBD
November 29 at #7 Auburn, TBD

A week later, they’ll play either Georgia, Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC Championship.

Topics: A.J. McCarron, Alabama Crimson Tide, Nick Saban

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