The Unbeatens: #3 Ohio State Buckeyes

Nov 2, 2013; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Braxton Miller (5) throws a pass against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

The folks at Bovada and Prediction Machine have been kind off to send over their schedule simulations for the six remaining unbeaten teams in college football.

Next up, the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.

Current Power Rank: 5
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 80
Undefeated Chances: 48.4%
Closest Remaining Game: B1G Championship Game
Teams that would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, Texas A&M, Baylor
Estimated Chances of Going 13-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 21.9% (if Ohio State wins out and two of Alabama, Florida State and Baylor lose, OSU should be in) … If Ohio State just needs Alabama or Florida State to lose to get in, it has a 29.2% chance

A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 8 (after conference title games): 1.2% (or 1-in-82)
Chances Alabama, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 7.6% (or 1-in-13)
Chances that Alabama, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 3.9% (or 1-in-26)
Chances that there are no undefeated teams in FBS on December 8: 1.0% (or 1-in-100)
Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 24.7%

BCS Championship Games

Using the same simulation technology, we can simulate potential BCS National Championship games to project the likelihood of either team winning each possible game, including an average score outcome. Here are all possible games involving the four BCS-AQ undefeated teams (also, though Stanford is currently in the top four of the BCS Standings, all of these teams would be favored in our numbers over the Cardinal on a neutral field – though Ohio State would be just less than a one point favorite in the projection). Games listed in order of current likelihood (figures assume this scenario when both teams undefeated).

Ohio State vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 7.0%
Simulated Result: Florida State wins 69% of the time
Projected Score: Florida State 33 – Ohio State 25

Alabama vs. Ohio State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 6.8%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 73% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 34 – Ohio State 25

Baylor vs. Ohio State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 2.1%
Simulated Result: Baylor wins 59% of the time
Projected Score: Baylor 39 – Ohio State 35

Here’s how the Buckeyes end the season:

November 16 at Illinois, 12:00 pm EST, ESPN
November 23 vs. Indiana, TBD
November 30 at Michigan, TBD

A week later, they’ll likely play either Nebraska or Michigan State in the Big 10 Championship game.

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