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The Unbeatens: #5 Baylor Bears

By Andrew Melnick

Nov 7, 2013; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Bryce Petty (14) throws a pass in the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Floyd Casey Stadium. Baylor beat Oklahoma 41-12. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2013; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Bryce Petty (14) throws a pass in the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Floyd Casey Stadium. Baylor beat Oklahoma 41-12. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 7, 2013; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Bryce Petty (14) throws a pass in the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Floyd Casey Stadium. Baylor beat Oklahoma 41-12. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2013; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Bryce Petty (14) throws a pass in the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Floyd Casey Stadium. Baylor beat Oklahoma 41-12. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /

The folks at Bovada and Prediction Machine have been kind off to send over their schedule simulations for the six remaining unbeaten teams in college football.

Next up, the fifth-ranked Baylor Bears.

Current Power Rank: 3
Current Strength-of-Schedule Rank: 93
Undefeated Chances: 36.9%
Closest Remaining Game: at Oklahoma State (November 23)
Teams that would be favored over Baylor on a neutral field: Oregon, Alabama, Florida State
Estimated Chances of Going 12-0 and Playing in BCS Title Game: 22.7% (if Baylor wins out and either Alabama or Florida State loses, Baylor should be in) … If Baylor needs two of Alabama, FSU and Ohio State to lose to get in, it only has a 14.9% chance

A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

  • Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 8 (after conference title games): 1.2% (or 1-in-82)
  • Chances Alabama, Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are undefeated on December 8: 7.6% (or 1-in-13)
  • Chances that Alabama, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State all have at least one loss on December 8: 3.9% (or 1-in-26)
  • Chances that there are no undefeated teams in FBS on December 8: 1.0% (or 1-in-100)
  • Estimated chances of a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game: 24.7%

BCS Championship Games

Using the same simulation technology, we can simulate potential BCS National Championship games to project the likelihood of either team winning each possible game, including an average score outcome. Here are all possible games involving the four BCS-AQ undefeated teams (also, though Stanford is currently in the top four of the BCS Standings, all of these teams would be favored in our numbers over the Cardinal on a neutral field – though Ohio State would be just less than a one point favorite in the projection). Games listed in order of current likelihood (figures assume this scenario when both teams undefeated).

Baylor vs. Florida State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 8.4%
Simulated Result: Florida State wins 58% of the time
Projected Score: Florida State 36 – Baylor 33

Alabama vs. Baylor
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 8.3%
Simulated Result: Alabama wins 64% of the time
Projected Score: Alabama 37 – Baylor 30

Baylor vs. Ohio State
Chances of this BCS Championship Game: 2.1%
Simulated Result: Baylor wins 59% of the time
Projected Score: Baylor 39 – Ohio State 35

Baylor ends their season with a pretty tough slate:

November 16 vs.Texas Tech, 7:00 pm EST FOX
Novemebr 23 at #12 Oklahoma State, TBD ABC
November 30 at TCU, TBD
December 7 vs. #24 Texas, TBD

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