Adam Schefter, ESPN NFL Insider, tweeted an astonishing statistic about the Colts’ win.
Colts win probability to begin 2nd half was 3.6 percent. It dropped to 0.9 percent when Chiefs took 38-10 lead with 13:39 left in 3rd qtr.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2014
The computers gave the Colts a 0.9% chance of winning with just under 29 minutes left in the game. The Colts beat the 1/100 odds, and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 45-44.
I have a problem with statistics because stats fail to factor in the competitive spirit of the athlete. It was a playoff game, and the Indianapolis Colts weren’t heading home without putting up a fight. In addition, the Colts had about 29 minutes to complete their comeback win.
Why would a professional athlete rely solely on statistics? Statistically, an American male has about a (you guess) chance of becoming an NFL player. The men who make it to the NFL do it because they meet the test, physically and mentally, not because they look at the stats and give up.
Athletes don’t give up, so as impressive as overcoming 1/100 odds may be, it is something that happens more than the stats dictate.