Could the NFL Really Implode in 10 Years?

Outspoken NBA owner Mark Cuban has generated a ton of attention and debate with his opinions on the NFL and its future. He seems to think that the NFL is in danger of “implosion” in the next 10 years because of the greed of the league and owners, specifically aimed at their television contracts.

While some of his remarks are valid, in my opinion, there is no way the NFL is imploding in 10 years, greed or not.

Cuban’s original quote regarding his opinions on the NFL and its constant expansion is:

"“I think the NFL is 10 years away from an implosion. When pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. And they’re getting hoggy. When you try to take it too far, people turn the other way. I’m just telling you, when you got a good thing and you get greedy, it always, always, always, always, always turns against you.” – Mark Cuban"

Cuban then went on to expand on those thoughts in a 1500-word essay he posted on his Facebook page on Monday. Given that he is a very successful, multi-billion dollar businessman, there is value in part of what he says. Also given that he is an owner of an NBA team and not an NFL team, there’s reason not to value everything he says.

His league is in direct competition with the NFL for television viewership for part of the year. And with the NFL being the king of American sports for quite some time, it’s easy to see how the owners of the other sports can be frustrated at times at the ever increasing popularity of the NFL. I don’t think you can take Cuban’s words to heart and not ignore that.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell responded to Cuban’s criticism that increasing the nights per week the NFL is on television is greedy and will eventually lead to its downfall while he’s in Orlando, Florida for the NFL owner’s meetings.

"“We’ve taken a very incremental and thoughtful approach how we’ve taken more games to a national platform. And that’s in large part driven by our fans – our fans want those games. We see the reaction of the fans. We see the reaction by the viewership. And we see the reaction by the media companies. We’ve moved in this case on Thursday night to a broadcast platform to allow the fans to enjoy the game. I think this is thoughtful, strategic and in the interest of the fan.” – Roger Goodell"

As much as I hate to agree with Roger Goodell, he’s right. We want more football. Even though the Thursday night games are terrible and almost painful to watch, we watch them. We watch them even knowing they’re going to be awful games. We want more football and the NFL is giving that to us. What Mark Cuban calls “hoggy” is actually just good business. If a business is experiencing not only no pushback from customers, but also more demand from them, why shouldn’t they continue to expand and deliver their product as much as they can? Would Cuban have these same opinions on the “greed” of the NFL television contracts if he was an NFL owner and not an NBA owner? Of course not.

Cuban went on to list several other reasons why he thinks the NFL is headed towards implosion on his Facebook essay. He gives 5 reasons to back up his argument.

1.       Safety. He lists the safety aspects of the game prohibiting people from wanting their children to play the sport and thus affecting the talent pool in the future. Not only will it affect the talent pool but he also states that the interest in the sport will be diminished if young kids are playing other sports instead.

Not only would this take longer than 10 years to actually affect the game big enough to cause an “implosion” it’s not entirely accurate to say that the amount of children playing the sport growing up is a direct correlation to the popularity of it in the future. How many men or women are diehard football fans who have never played the sport at a competitive level? Why would not playing the sport by any means diminish the popularity of it? Youth soccer is extremely popular in this country and has been for decades but that’s never translated into popularity of the sport as far as viewership.

2.       Player Behavior. He states that eventually fans will grow tired of watching NFL players get into trouble with the law and that will contribute to the downfall of the league.

As much as I wish the NFL did more to control its problems with DUI’s and domestic violence I honestly don’t think players being arrested will eventually lead to the implosion of the NFL. Ray Lewis went from pleading guilty to playing a role in a double homicide investigation to being a spokesperson for the NFL. Fans don’t forget things like Michael Vick and the dogs or Ben Roethlisberger and the accusations of sexual assault but the reality is that none of those things have harmed the popularity of the sport whatsoever.

3.       TV Expansion. While Cuban applauds the television strategy of the league he also warns against oversaturation. Kind of “too much of a good thing” warning. You can tell that this is the one thing that really gets Cuban going because he wrote the most on it and for good reason, the more popular the NFL is to watch on TV, the less popular his sport is.

The fact is that the NFL is giving the fans what they want right now and that’s more football. He referenced the television game show “Who Wants to be A Millionaire” as an example of oversaturating leading to a decline in popularity. Could not think of a worse or more unrelateable example dude. I doubt the NFL is going to creep into Friday nights or Saturday nights during college football season. The popularity of Saturday Night College games really only helps the NFL eventually anyway, they’d be crazy to infringe upon that and there’s no sign that they would. There’s talk of Saturday NFL games, but late in the season when college football is over.

4.       Fantasy Football. Mark Cuban is betting basically that Fantasy football is a fad and something bigger and better will probably come along within the next 10 years that will replace fantasy and cause a decline in the popularity of the NFL.I don’t know, I realize the guy is a savvy businessman and all but something tells me that its more likely that in the next 10 years we will have our fantasy stats imported directly into our brains somehow before something else will come along and replace it altogether.

5.       TV changing.  Cuban explains that the changing landscape of television viewership where more and more people are cancelling their cable subscriptions and looking for different ways to consume their favorite programs like internet streaming.

While it’s true that if the whole country decided to cancel their cable to watch their “Shark Tank” episodes online as opposed to on TV it would drastically affect the NFL and how it does business. The whole reason the free agent market exploded as much as it has so far this year is because the jump the salary cap took as a direct result of the television contracts. If television isn’t worth as much as it used to be, the television contracts aren’t worth as much and the teams get less revenue and less money to sign players. That’s a valid concern. However, it would literally take the majority of US consumers drastically altering their television viewing habits for this to be a real concern. Could that happen in the next 10 years? Sure it could. Would it happen in the next 10 years? Probably not.

The NFL is greedy, there’s no doubt about that. I wouldn’t put a time limit on it but there are some ways I think the NFL’s greed could lead them down the wrong path in the future. I think that if the NFL expands to include a team in London it’s going to seriously take a hit back home, especially if that franchise was moved from an existing NFL city. I think the greed of what the NFL is getting with the few games a year in London could drive them to think that a team there would work and I just don’t think the fans would back that the same way we’ve backed everything else as far as unwavering viewership. Also I think that the NFL needs to seriously consider the fact that their stadium experiences are on the decline. The biggest reason why the NFL has the luxury to expand its national television platform is because the NFL is a great television show.

People love to watch it and we can’t get enough of it. What that is doing to the stadium experience, however, is making it less desirable to attend a game in person and that’s something the NFL should be concerned with.

Do I think it means the eminent downfall of the league in 10 years? Absolutely not.