Champions League: Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea, preview, odds and predictions
By Mike Dyce
Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Atletico Madrid and Chelsea FC are squaring off in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals on Tuesday. When the draw for the semi-finals was underway, there were two potential dream match-ups involving Chelsea. If they were to have drawn Real Madrid, it would have pitted Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho against his former team. Like his first stint with Chelsea, Mourinho failed to deliver a Champions League trophy to the club and could then be responsible for Madrid failing to win one again.
If Chelsea FC had drawn Bayern Munich it would be a rematch of the 2012 final, an intriguing storyline in itself. Munich manager Pep Guardiola is in his first season with the club after leaving Barcelona, Real Madrid and Mourinho’s former team. The two squared off many times and it would’ve been an intriguing match up with both in their first year with a new club.
Instead, Mourinho and Chelsea drew Atletico. While Mourinho might never be to bring that Champions League trophy to Real Madrid, he has a chance to do so with Chelsea after failing too in his first sting with the club. He won the Champions League twice, with Porto before Chelsea and Inter Milan after Chelsea.
Just don’t ask Mourinho about it.
“I have no unfinished business with Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League,” Mourinho said, via UEFA. “I did my best. I always do my best. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.”
While those Mourinho story-lines in the semi-finals didn’t happen, there is the underlying story line involving the return of Chelsea striker Fernando Torres to the club where he spent his youth.
“Fernando is a kid who this club loves. Torres loves this club and the people here; he has good memories of his time here,” Atletico manager Diego Simeone said. “Before the match, in the warm-up and at the end I think Torres will receive the ovation that he deserves. He will always be one of us at Atlético.”
Atletico Madrid midfielder Mario Suarez told Marca that Torres’ return was a big deal, but was quick to point out that he wasn’t hoping for a positive result for Torres.
“For all Atleticos it will be very special to see Torres playing here,” Suarez said. “He has been an idol for us, he will be returning to the Calderon for the first time. If he plays I hope he has a really bad game, but can enjoy himself afterwards.”
Simeone laid out a common sense and plain game plan for the semi-final.
“We know our strengths and weaknesses: We will try to take advantage of our strengths and disguise our weaknesses,” Simeone said. “Thibaut Courtois’s state of mind is the same as that of all his team-mates. They are all filled with enthusiasm. They know the importance of this match – not just for them, but for the club.
“This is a semi-final and as such it will be a very tight match. It is a game that will be decided by very small details. Teamwork will be all-important in helping to bring out the individual qualities that can decide games. Whoever can do that best will be closer to winning the first leg. I am still thinking about tactics; I want to see how we are in training.”
Odds
These odds are from Sky Bet:
- Atletico Madrid to win 10/11
- Chelsea to win 16/5
- Draw 23/10
Predictions
Chelsea is coming into this game limping. They lost to Sunderland at home on Saturday, falling further behind Liverpool in the Premier League table for the championship. Branislav Ivanović is suspended for the game and Eden Hazard’s availability is in doubt. Hazard has been dealing with a calf injury lingering from the second leg of their quarter-final match up against Paris Saint-Germain. Goal keeper Petr Cech missed the game against Sunderland with an illness, but trained on Monday ahead of the match up.
On the flip side Atletico Madrid have a healthier side coming into the game. They’ve also never lost a game at home to an English team, winning five times and they had four draws. They’re also on an incredible win streak at home with just one loss this campaign.
It looks like all the momentum is behind Atletico Madrid and with Chelsea limping into this road pairing they have the advantage, even if Mourinho doesn’t necessarily believe in it.
“I don’t know if playing the first leg at home or away is an advantage,” Mourinho said. “It’s difficult for a UEFA Champions League tie to be decided in one game; not impossible, but it is difficult. I like to play without thinking about that aspect too much. We know that Atlético will try everything to win the game but we are going to try to win it too.”
So I’m picking Atletico Madrid to win the first leg.