The Evidence Against Midrange Shooting Is Overwhelming

NBA offenses are increasingly abandoning 2-point shots that aren’t layups. Few players make them at a high rate so the risk/reward benefit just isn’t there. If you employ Dirk Nowitzki, let him take jumpers inside the arc, but the statistical argument against the midrange has become staggering.

The defending champs provide the best example.

For definition’s sake, two regions of the court comprise what we will call “non-layup 2s”: the midrange (shots outside of the paint but inside the 3-point arc) and the area inside the paint but outside the restricted area.

On their way to a title last postseason, the Miami Heat shot poorly from both spots. They made just 37.7% from midrange, according to NBA.com, and were barely better on shots inside the paint but outside the restricted area (39.0%).

By contrast, they were much, much better at the rim and from 3-point range. The Heat made 65.1% of shots from the restricted area (second best among playoff teams) and scorched nets from deep, making 38.2% of the 20.2 triples they launched per game (also second best).

Given these numbers, you wonder why Miami would ever take a non-layup 2. Coach Erik Spoelstra apparently feels the same way and skewed his team’s shot distribution even further away from non-layup 2s this year.

In this year’s playoffs so far, only 37.6% of Miami’s field goal attempts have been non-layup 2s. This is down from 41.5% last postseason.

The Houston Rockets have similarly altered their shot distribution with even more extreme results.

Epitomized by the style of James Harden, only 27.4% of the team’s field goal attempts were non-layup 2s — and that number hardly budged in the playoffs (28.8%).

Houston, behind the math of GM Daryl Morey, are all in on the idea of getting its points on layups, 3s, and free throws.

But the Rockets lost in the first round, people might argue. Live by the jumper, die by the jumper. Opponents can easily point to Houston’s poor shooting in the playoffs as evidence against “Morey ball.”

Among playoff teams, only the Bobcats and Hawks shot worse in the restricted area than the sad 55.0% the Rockets posted in their seven games against the Blazers. They were arguably even worse from deep, making just 32.2% of their 3s (only the Grizzlies, Raptors, and Nets have been worse).

Yikes. Back to the drawing board.

But not really.

Why? Because, amazingly, the Rockets poor shooting really didn’t even matter in terms of producing excellent offense.

Even with such bad shooting from their target zones, the Rockets were able to get to the line enough (29.8 times per game) to score at a high rate. In fact, the team’s 109.8 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs was a slight jump from its regular season output (108.6), and only the Blazers, Clippers, and Spurs scored at a better clip in the first round.

Offense wasn’t the issue. Defense was their demise — plus that Damian Lillard fella — so Morey’s offensive philosophy still looks as sound as ever.

The leaguewide figures only further back this up.

They numbers are clear: shooting non-layup 2s is how offenses die.

In the regular season, 10 teams had non-layup 2s account for more than 44.0% of their field goal attempts. Zero of them finished the year with a top-15 offense. The best of the bunch was Memphis, which was the only one of the 10 to produce more than 103 points per 100 possessions. And those who watched Memphis’ scoring droughts all year can confirm that the film was often even worse than the stats.

Furthermore, seven of the worst 10 offenses had non-layup 2s account for more than 44% of their attempts. I’m not sure if 44% is a magic number, but it increasingly looks like teams struggle to score efficiently when the eclipse that threshold.

Except the Spurs, that is.

Gregg Popovich seems to be the one man who can continually get a team to score well even while taking so many non-layup 2s.

In the regular season, coach’s Popovich’s offense only featured 42.1% of its shots as non-layup 2s, so it is evident that he doesn’t love them. But the Spurs made it to the NBA Finals last year — and were a few free throws from winning a title — while devoting 46.3% of their playoff shot attempts to non-layup 2s.

In the postseason so far this year, that number is 47.2%, the highest of any team left other than the Wizards.

Sample sizes in the playoffs are always tricky, so it is hard to say whether Pop is intentionally running sets to take more non-layup 2s or if players are just out there taking what the defense gives them.

Because the flipside to all these teams abandoning inefficient 2s is that defenses (exemplified by the league-best Pacers’ D) are more willing to surrender them. This gamesmanship — defenses allowing them and offenses being willing to take them when they’re open — is an interesting balance that will probably remain in transition in seasons to come, particularly factor into different playoff series.

And the longer the Spurs keep succeeding with such an offensive distribution, opponents of the Heat/Rockets strategy will continue to have a successful counter example to point to. Other coaches who continue to think midrange scoring is a good option can cling to the Spurs way.

But for now, the evidence couldn’t be more compelling for everyone who isn’t Pop. We’re looking at you, Frank Vogel and Randy Wittman.

Obviously, personnel also factors into the equation, and it would be unfair not to factor in team makeup.

If you have Roy Hibbert and David West, or Nene and Marcin Gortat, it is harder to get away from non-layup 2s. The presence of Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter certainly may account for why Popovich, in the playoffs anyway, continues to rely on them more than most.

But if the only coach in the league who can run a good offense while shooting so many non-layup 2s is the guy with three Coach of the Year awards, good luck replicating that success no matter who is on your team. And unless one of the Wizards, Pacers, Nets, or Blazers pull off an unlikely push to the Finals, Pop will remain the only one who has proven that he get away with it.

For everyone else, the non-layup 2 continues to prove a recipe for defeat. Coaches must adjust or prepare for unemployment.