Damian Lillard: Where does Portland PG go from here?
By Josh Planos
LaMarcus Aldridge is arguably the face of the Portland Trail Blazers franchise each time they step foot on a court, but the team dies without Damian Lillard. The Oakland sparkplug possesses a killer late-game instinct few in the league have, and was the catalyst for Portland’s vault into the second round of the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. When Alridge went down in March, Lillard held the unit to nearly a .500 record.
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In 24 months, Lillard has gone from Weber State unrecognizability to the 2013 Rookie of the Year, 2014 All-Star selection, and a shoe deal with Adidas worth well over $100 million. Last year, he became the first player ever to compete in five events during the All-Star weekend.
Rarely does a second-year player have the highlight reel footage Lillard does. He easily sunk the biggest shot of the year last season for the Trail Blazers, a shot that catapulted them into the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2000.
Lillard is inching closer and closer each season to the “best point guard in the league” discussion. He’s a larger-than-life star whose clutch gene in late-game situations saved Portland time and time again. He’s not elite regarding facilitation (career average is 5.8 assists per 36 minutes). Chris Paul — for comparison — averages 9.8, but his numbers are striking, and they’ve steadily improved over the last two seasons.
Although his overall field goal percentage dipped by .05 percent from 2012-13 to 2013-14, consider the sample size: Nearly 100 more shots, while averaging the tenth-most touches per game in the league during the regular season (84). Of all NBA players during the regular season, he controlled the ball for the eighth-most period of time per game (6.9 minutes). Head coach Terry Stotts offered more of the reigns to Lillard in 2013-14— it worked.
In the postseason, Lillard’s shooting numbers improved, ranking No. 4 in the league in pull-up points per game. His effective field goal percentage stayed above 50 percent and his true shooting percentage rose to 57 percent—all while maintaining mirror figures in facilitation.
Despite their tremendous improvement, though, the annihilation at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs in the second round left an acidic trace to the season. Veteran point guard Tony Parker made Lillard and Portland appear helpless for much of the series. It didn’t matter that Portland outrebounded San Antonio in all but one of the games, the Spurs put on a defensive clinic (prior to the offensive one that eviscerated Miami)—particularly regarding contested jump shots—and bounced them in five games.
“We’re not settling for a moral victory, but we’re proud of what we were able to get done this season,” Lillard said in the aftermath. “We put our minds on doing one thing: making the playoffs and proving people wrong and competing in the playoffs. And we did that. And more. I think we take a lot of confidence from it, try to grow from it, and we’ll be a better team next year.”
The notion that Lillard’s improvement carries a concomitant effect on the progress Portland can make in the upcoming seasons is obvious, but what does he ultimately need to fix or improve?
For starters, he can shoot less in volume from inside 24-feet. Since his rookie season, Portland is 14-18 in games where Lillard attempts 20+ field goals. He shoots 45 percent from 16+ feet on 2-point field goals, which is reasonable. But his shots are often a product of high pick-and-roll sets, where there’s seldom a big man in the low-block able to rebound a missed jumper. Portland doesn’t have many wrinkles on the offensive end: No. 1 overall in offensive rebounding (46.4 per game), No. 4 in scoring (106.7 per game), No. 15 in field goal percentage (45), No. 7 in 3-point percentage (37.2), No. 1 in free throw percentage (81.5), No. 6 in turnovers (13.3).
Let’s not kid ourselves: Portland’s offense wasn’t the reason they lost 28 games a season ago, or their novice acumen in late-game situations. It was their dreadful play on the defensive end. They struggled all year, gave up 102.8 points per game—No. 22 in the league—the highest total allowed by a Trail Blazer team since the 1993-94 season. When April came, they performed worse, giving up 110.5 points per game in the playoffs. Their regular season defensive rating of 107.4 ranked No. 16 in the league, which is generous considering how poorly their defensive rebounding and forced turnover game were. Portland’s opponents averaged 43.5 total rebounds per game, the highest figure allowed by a Trail Blazer squad in three decades. They also forced just 11.6 turnovers per game, last in the league and the lowest total of any NBA team since the Los Angeles Lakers sieved their way through the 2011-12 season.
On-ball defending has never been Lillard’s specialty. At some point, Lillard will need to take some series steps forward regarding his defensive deficiencies. Opponents shot 52 percent at the rim when he was defending a season ago and he averaged just 0.8 steals per game—a lower figure than Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich, Detroit’s Josh Smith, and Atlanta’s Kyle Korver, players not exactly praised for their lockdown defense. In the 2014 playoffs, his numbers improved barely: 1.0 steals per game, opponents shot 51.5 percent at the rim. To be clear, it’s not just Lillard who needs work defensively, but he’s certainly not helping a team of latent defensemen. Opposing guards lose him off the dribble constantly, and his defending has been marked an “area to improve” for two offseasons now.
Although Lillard has been a playoff hero, he’s never been an Olympian. Playing on Team USA this summer in the FIBA World Cup will provide opportunities to develop as a two-way player. Playing in last year’s minicamp is much different than playing international competition while representing your country, and making the team’s 19-player training camp roster—which is teeming with talent at the point guard spot—will likely be decided by the development he makes on the defensive side.
In wins a season ago, Lillard played to a
of 9.6, when they lost he played to -8.9; Portland held a 113.2 offensive rating with him on the floor, 105.5 without. Lillard is the pulse of the Trail Blazers and if they want to keep improving each season, he’ll have to remedy his weaknesses.