Could USA Basketball fall short of gold at FIBA World Cup?

USA Basketball rolled through the 2012 London games with ease, trailing only once in the fourth quarter of any game. That roster was stacked with stars, be it LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant or Carmelo Anthony. In 13 exhibition and tournament games, the Americans dominated nearly every minute of play. The only close calls were in the exhibition against Argentina in a six-point victory and against Lithuania in the group stages of the Olympics, when USA won by just five.

Two summers later, the Americans are again going for gold in an international competition. This time its the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup in Spain. The event kicks off on August 30th, which unfortunately overlaps with the start of the college football and NFL seasons. That means that the tournament will get less mainstream media coverage, but to hardcore basketball fans, the event is still a must-watch.

Probably the only game the casual fan will really care about will be against Spain, hopefully in the championship game. Before I get ahead of myself, the Americans have a long road ahead of themselves before they get to that championship game. The USA is in Group C but should have no trouble disposing the likes of Ukraine, Turkey, Finland and others on their way to the knockout stages. There, USA will be on the other side of the bracket to Spain, who should have no trouble getting out of Group A. The gold medal game between the two basketball powerhouse nations looms for Sunday, September 24th.

Spain and the US have met before. The US beat them to win the gold medal in 2008 and 2012, winning in London in the championship by a final score of 107-100. In that game, America led the Spaniards by just one point at the end of the third quarter before LeBron took over and closed the door on Spain’s hopes.

Marc Gasol, part of Spain’s famed three-headed monster of a frontcourt, went out early in the second quarter after being called for his fourth foul. That certainly won’t happen this year in Spain, where Gasol will be two years smarter and playing in his home country. The two Gasol brothers, Serge Ibaka, Ricky Rubio and Jose Calderon make up the meat of the Spanish roster, which has been patiently waiting for a rematch with the Americans ever since 2012’s defeat.

The US knows Spain and how they will attack on offense. Here is a gif of the Spanish high pick and roll from the July 24th, 2012 scrimmage. In the gif, the USA is playing without any traditional big men on the floor. Spain attacks accordingly, using both Ibaka and Gasol in a high pick and roll. James and Bryant work hard to fight over the picks, but two quick passes free up an open look for Ibaka at the rim. Ibaka chooses to attack the basket but shooters are open on the weakside as the entire US defense is forced to rotate and help defend the pick and roll.

Ibaka doesn’t score here, but that is besides the point. The US has struggled and will struggle with Spain’s size, because that is the matchup of Spain’s biggest strength going against USA’s biggest weakness.

That weakness will be much more profound this summer, when a completely different roster takes the floor for the USA than the one that shaped up in London. James Harden and Anthony Davis are the only two holdovers (although there are Kevin Love rumors flying) from that 2012 Olympic roster. The roster that is left in its place still features 12 All-NBA caliber players, but the 2012 Olympic roster would thrash the 2014 FIBA roster in a heartbeat.

Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, Harden and Davis are the stars of the team now. The FIBA roster will be built around versatile and athletic wings, three-point shooting, and paper-thin pickings at power forward and center. Kevin Durant was penciled in at power forward, but he pulled out of the tournament around a week ago. I don’t fault him for pulling out at all, but he leaves a great void on the roster. At center, Davis is going to be a beast, but after that… Mason Plumlee, anyone?

DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins and Andre Drummond are the other candidates for center, but each has their own flaws. Boogie Cousins doesn’t quite fit the style of play that the US wants to emulate in Spain, (Plumlee does, that’s why he is still on the roster) and thus wouldn’t get many minutes until the Spain game. Drummond and his terrible free throw shooting make him unplayable during crunch time, as international coaches would happily “Hack a Drummond” and put his career .402 free throw shooting percentage to work for them.

The lack of depth at center and power forward pose no risks to the American’s march to the gold medal game. Gordon Hayward, Chandler Parsons and potentially new roster addition Rudy Gay could all play small-ball four and the US would run and shoot past every team in the tournament. But by the time the Spain game rolls around, trying to defend the Gasol brothers and Ibaka with Hayward just isn’t going to work.

I can’t wait for that game, because I think Spain is going to give the US a real run for their money. The Spaniards will be playing with a true home-court advantage and the crowd for the championship game will be crazy. That may throw off the young US side more than you think–it will be like playing on the road in a college atmosphere.

Also, unlike in 2012, the US has no alpha dog to turn to. In 2012 if the US needed a bucket, Kobe or LeBron could overpower their inferior defender and regain momentum for the US side. I don’t feel very comfortable with Harden in that role, or Davis for that matter. I guess Damian Lillard will do.

A lot of signals are pointing to a US upset at the hands of Spain, in Spain, this summer. Paul George’s injury gave life to arguments of whether prominent players should play in international competitions. Players therefore will have doubts and injury concerns floating around in the back of their minds. Two or three quick fouls to Davis in any game and the US is in real trouble. The games are in Spain, and the US will be playing a team with the perfect qualities to beat America. And there is a lot of pressure on this team. Losing just a single game would make this tournament a huge disappointment for America.

Now, I’m not secretly Spanish and cheering for the Gasol brothers to win. I think the US will end up winning the tournament and I will be cheering for them to do so. But I also believe that the US’s chances of losing at the hands of Spain are much higher than people realize.