Can Dallas Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray break NFL single-season rushing record?
By Shaun Church
Is it too early to ask whether Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray can break Eric Dickerson’s single-season NFL rushing record of 2,105 yards, which the Hall of Fame back set in 1984?
Consider this: The year Dickerson set the record and surpassed O.J. Simpson’s then-record of 2,003 yards, the Los Angeles Rams goggled superstar rushed for 378 yards (4.06 yards per carry) over his first four games. Murray has an NFL-high 534 yards (5.39 YPC) through the first month of play in 2014.
How good is 534 rushing yards over the first four games? Only seven players in league history have rushed for more yards in that span, and only one active back has done so—Houston Texans star Arian Foster tallied 539 yards through four games in 2010.
But it obviously takes more than the first four games of a season to surpass 2,000 yards and challenge a 30-year-old NFL record. After all, Foster finished with “only” 1,616 yards after his September breakout.
What has been a major factor in Murray’s early success, and can he and the Cowboys keep it up long enough to see the budding star make history? Let’s dive deep into the stats to find out if Dickerson should be worried about his record.
Run blocking
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the Cowboys’ Tyron Smith is the fourth-rated left tackle in run blocking so far this season, earning a plus-2.6 grade through four games. Doug Free isn’t far behind and is the seventh-rated right tackle, at a plus-1.6 grade.
The interior of Dallas’ line has not been quite as stout early, as center Travis Frederick is ranked 16th among his peers in run blocking, with a plus-0.9 grade. The guards have struggled at times, but both left guard Ronald Leary and rookie right guard Zack Martin—who has struggled most—have had their moments.
It’s no surprise Murray has had the most success this season on runs to both edges and anything to the left side of the line.
As you can see from the chart above, Murray is most successful running to the left side and off right end. Now let’s look at a quick example of great run blocking from the Cowboys.
Week 1; Murray up the middle for 6 yards
Dallas lost its season opener to the San Francisco 49ers, but Murray still rushed for 118 yards and a touchdown.
On this play, we will see right guard Martin (70) and tight end Jason Witten (82) come across the formation after the snap on this simple dive play.
With six blockers up front and six defenders in the box, Cowboys passing game coordinator Scott Linehan—who serves as the play-caller for head coach Jason Garrett—dialed up the perfect play.
As Murray gets the handoff from quarterback Tony Romo, Martin is set to pick up outside linebacker Dan Skuta, Witten is honed in on inside linebacker Matt Wilhoite and Leary—who is helping Frederick (72) with nose tackle Ian Williams—has his eyes on All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis.
Fast-forward just a few frames later and all six blockers have engaged an in-the-box defender. Murray makes the necessary cut up the middle to gain six yards.
You will see in the GIF that this play could have been much bigger than a six-yard gain had Leary gotten all of Willis, who ended up with the tackle of Murray.
More than just good run blocking, Murray has amazing vision and anticipation to see a running lane before it appears in order to hit it at the exact moment it materializes.
His vision early this season is matched by few running backs.
Vision
Murray is fast enough to take any run the distance if given space. But when space is small, he has the vision to see cracks and make cuts toward them to turn an otherwise failed play into positive yards.
This is an example of that elite vision.
Week 2; Murray off right guard for 13 yards
The Cowboys bounced back in a big way against the Tennessee Titans, smashing the weak AFC South opponent, 26-10. Murray was a big part of that, carrying 29 times for 167 yards (5.76 YPC) and a touchdown.
A back without the ability to see a lane before it opens and the trust it will, indeed, open would have been stopped for little to no gain on this play. But Murray has that vision and trust. Check this out.
It’s a play to the left side of the defense, which, unlike the previous play, is not a great call considering Dallas has three blockers to the strong side of the formation while Tennessee has four defenders, anticipating what’s coming.
You can see shortly after Murray receives the Romo handoff, there is nothing doing. Left tackle Smith (77) showed up to help, as did left guard Leary (65). But you can tell because of the screen shot something might develop in a split second.
Murray’s next action is to plant his right foot into the turf at LP Field and drive toward the running lane that has yet to open. His vision, anticipation and body control are such that he can do this with confidence—kind of reminds you of another Cowboys running back, doesn’t it?
This lane is no wider than Murray himself, and the back is already through it.
From here, you will see Murray take advantage of the second-level block from Leary—who has done a really nice job getting to the second level early this season—and set Romo and the Cowboys up with a 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard line.
OK, enough film for now. Let’s look at the Cowboys remaining schedule and any possible road blocks that could derail Murray’s quest for Dickerson’s record.
The remaining defenses
Of the 12 remaining defenses Dallas faces, two are in the bottom-third in yards per carry allowed, six are in the bottom half and the average rank of them all is 14.
But they face three teams currently in the top five (highlighted), starting with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, continuing with the Arizona Cardinals and ending with the NFC East arch-rival Washington Redskins—twice.
A game or two could be considered too early when looking at defensive statistics, as any number of circumstances could affect outcomes. But after a month of football games, what you see is what you get for the vast majority of the league. Those in the top 10 in run defense now should be around there at season’s end, and those at the other end are bad and likely will not have a sudden resurgence.
Murray has topped 100 yards in each of the Cowboys first four games this season. He is one of six backs to accomplish that feat in the NFL’s modern era.*
Does he need to top 100 yards every game this season in order to break Dickerson’s record? No, not at all. In fact, no back in NFL history has done that.
The league record for consecutive 100-yard games is 14, by Hall of Famer Barry Sanders in 1997, the year he bested 2,000 yards on the ground.
Aside: Murray has already tied the franchise record with his four straight 100-yard games. He, Smith and another Hall of Fame back, Tony Dorsett, share the record. Murray has a great chance to stand alone after Sunday’s game against the Texans, as J.J. Watt and Co. struggle to stop teams. Just look at their ranks and how many big plays they have allowed on the ground.
Of the seven men who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, all of them had at least 10 games of 100-plus yards. Four had at least a dozen such games, with Sanders’ 14 setting the mark.
Realistically, he could struggle against the four defenses mentioned and still have a great shot when Dallas travels to Washington to close out the 2014 season.
Murray’s performance to this point has been understated because of Romo and the passing game, which is also a big factor in his success. Because Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Witten pose such a threat downfield, teams can’t simply stack eight in the box and hope Romo doesn’t beat them.
The passing threat is real, which makes Murray’s case for breaking Dickerson’s record stronger. Whether Linehan sets up the pass by running Murray or sets up Murray by letting Romo sling it around early, the fourth-year pro out of Oklahoma has just as real a shot at besting Dickerson’s 1984 season as Adrian Peterson—whom he replaced in Norman following the 2007 NFL draft—did in 2012. As you might recall, Peterson fell just nine yards shy of breaking the record, and his 2,097 yards are second all-time to Dickerson’s 2,105.
In summation, given Dallas’ excellent run blocking, Murray’s combination of speed, power, vision and trust in the line, as well as the Cowboys remaining schedule this season, we could very well see the single-season rushing record fall after 30 years. Considering the NFL is a passing league, that would be incredible.
The only thing that stands in Murray’s way is the potential for injury; he has yet to play a full 16-game season due to various injuries over his first three years in the NFL. But if he remains healthy and keeps his current pace, he will rush for 2,136 yards, topping Dickerson’s record by 31 yards.
*Murray is the third back since 1960 to rush for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of his team’s first four games. The others are Simpson (1975, NFL record five games to start a season) and Smith (1995).
All stats gathered from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise stated
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