Will Milwaukee Bucks’ bold move for Michael Carter-Williams pay off?

By Dylan Hughes | Mar 1, 2015

Feb 25, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks head coach Jason Kidd talks with guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) during the second quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

At the trade deadline, one of the most shocking moves was the Milwaukee Bucks trading Brandon Knight to acquire Michael Carter-Williams. Will it pay off?

The trade deadline has probably become the third most exciting NBA event of the year, behind the playoffs and free agency. This year’s deadline did not disappoint, with a total of 37 players moving in just the one day. That doesn’t include the plenty of other deals that went down before February, either.

One of the oddest and most surprising moves of the day was the Milwaukee Bucks shipping Brandon Knight away to the Phoenix Suns, and acquiring Michael Carter-Williams from the Philadelphia 76ers in the same deal. Playing so much better than last season, now owning the 6th seed in the East, nobody expected Milwaukee to make a deal, especially of this magnitude.

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For Philly, Michael Carter-Williams was expected to be one of the players they would build around for the future.

So for both sides, the deal was quite interesting.

In the short-term, the deal made sense for Milwaukee. From Phoenix, the Bucks got rookie point guard Tyler Ennis, who had very little opportunity with the Suns, along with center Miles Plumlee. Both Ennis and Plumlee will have more opportunity in Milwaukee and fill positions of need.

The real head-scratcher was dealing away Knight, who played a major part in the Bucks’ success this season.

The only logical explanation for this deal was that the Bucks didn’t feel they could afford Knight, who is a restricted free agent this summer. With his play this season (17.4 points, 5.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds per game), Knight will be offered a fairly large contract this summer. With the restricted status, a team will have to offer more than he’s actually worth just to take him away from his current team.

With shooting guard Khris Middleton also being a restricted free agent this summer, the Bucks wouldn’t have been able to match both.

What this deal really shows is that Middleton is worth more to Milwaukee than Knight, and that is understandable. Middleton might not be as well-known as Knight, but he is silently having a breakout season. Middleton’s 11.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game don’t really show his offensive potential, but his 47.6 field goal percentage and 41.3 three-point shooting percentage does.

Middleton only attempts 9.7 field goals per game, and with more offensive load could be one of the better shooting guards in the league.

What Middleton has especially excelled in this season is defense, with a defensive real plus-minus of 4.10. That is good enough for ninth in the entire league, and first among shooting guards. His overall real-plus minus of 6.13 is second to only James Harden (shooting guards), and sixth in the NBA behind Stephen Curry, Harden, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James.

Pretty darn good company, I’d say.

The Bucks already have $48 million in committed salary for next season, and with the money Middleton will make, there is no way they could keep Knight as well with what he will be offered.

So to replace Knight, Milwaukee went out and got Carter-Williams from Philadelphia.

The Bucks won’t have to worry about MCW leaving any time soon, as he will be under contract for the rest of this year and the following two seasons assuming his team option is picked up after next season.

Carter-Williams has been accused of being one of those “good stats, bad team” guys, and understandably so.

Before arriving in Milwaukee, MCW was apart of the NBA’s worst franchise for the last year and a half. He was the best player on that team, posting 15.0 points, 7.4 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game this season. Since he struggles from the field (38 perfect on field goals, 25.6 percent from three) and played on such a terrible team, no one thought he was really that good.

There was no way to prove of disprove that theory, as he had always played on a bad team. But now, with a playoff team in Milwaukee, MCW has a chance to show us what he can contribute to a winning team.

After missing the team’s first three games following the trade, Carter-Williams’ debut came against his former team. The Bucks crushed the Sixers, with Carter-Williams posting seven points, eight assists, and two steals in 18 minutes. As we know, looking good against the Sixers isn’t very hard to do.

In his next game, MCW faced another poor team in the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Bucks fell in this one, 101-93, however, with MCW recording eight points and four assists in 27 minutes. And on the second night of a back-to-back, the Bucks fell once again, this time to the Jazz, 82-75. MCW tallied 16 points, five rebounds, three assists, and four steals.

In three games with Carter-Williams, the Bucks’ offense has been all over the place. After posting 104 points, they descended to 93 and 75 in the next two games. It is hard to make an opinion just yet on how MCW truly affects this team, but there are some things we can take away from these three games.

Thus far, when comparing the Bucks’ offense with and without MCW, the rating is much better when he is off the court at 103.8 to 95.7. There are some categories on defense, however, where the Bucks are better with him on the court. With MCW, the Bucks are better rebounders (+2.5 total rebounding percentage), better at spreading the ball around (+7.4 assist ratio), and better forcing turnovers (+2.3 steal percentage).

Part of the reason MCW is such a good fit with Milwaukee is his defense.

With guys like Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and John Henson, the Bucks have tons of lanky defenders who have helped them post the second best defensive efficiency mark in the league at 98.6 behind only the 45-11 Golden State Warriors.

Add Carter-Williams to that mix, and passing and shooting over these guys gets really difficult.

Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t been too great with MCW thus far, but it was never that good with Knight, either. In Knight’s time with the Bucks this season, Milwaukee ranked 17th in the league in offensive rating. While that isn’t bad, it’s nothing to fawn over.

In the three games with MCW, Milwaukee is 26th in the league in offensive efficiency, but also fourth in defensive efficiency. Still a very, very small sample size, so there is no point in freaking about either of those two numbers at the moment.

Basketball isn’t all about stats, though, and the eye test is definitely a valid way to judge a team (not sarcastic).

The Bucks’ offense has looked pretty poor with MCW, and that’s too be expected. After losing Jabari Parker (season-ending injury) and Larry Sanders (bought out), Milwaukee’s frontcourt doesn’t feature much of an offensive presence with Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia.

With Knight, Milwaukee’s offense could really only rely on him and Middleton to be consistent, aggressive scorers when they needed it. Antetokounmpo has shown flashes of being a good offensive player, but he is still very raw on that side of the court and won’t be a reliable offensive option when needed probably for a couple of years.

So with Knight out of the picture, Milwaukee really only has Middleton to create his own shot.

They have some decent spacing options off the bench with Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo, but Middleton is the only perimeter threat in the starting unit.

So for the rest of this season, the Bucks’ offense may struggle, but that’s OK. When you have a top rated defense in this league, you can go pretty far no matter how bad your offense may be. Just ask the Indiana Pacers, Chicago Bulls, and Memphis Grizzlies of recent years.

Just for fun, though, let’s look at some of MCW’s best dimes since becoming a Buck.

It is too early to judge whether this deal will make sense in the long-term, but it does in the interim. The Bucks now don’t have to make a decision on which guard to match and have the money to lock up Middleton for a long time. He and Carter-Williams could and should be one of the better defensive backcourts in the league for the foreseeable future.

MCW’s biggest flaw is his shooting, but he couldn’t have a better head coach. Jason Kidd started off his playing career as a pretty poor shooter himself, but developed to become at least good enough to get by. A summer with Kidd could really change MCW from a solid distributor and defender to just a solid player overall.

Right now, Carter-Williams is shooting 63.5 percent at the rim, but less than 32 percent from everywhere else on the floor.

There are still a lot of factors to determine whether this extremely bold move will pay off for the Bucks. He doesn’t have too much offensive talent surrounding him, but he will bring solid defense to the mix.

And for the Bucks right now, I think that’s all they really care about.

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