Where will Zach Miller sign in 2016 NFL free agency?
Non-Chicago Bears fans might not be familiar with the name Zach Miller, so here’s everything you need to know about the 31-year-old tight end in two video clips: this OBJ-esque catch and this 87-yard embarrassment of the team formerly known as the St. Louis Rams. To be fair, viewing those two clips alone would make the average person think Zach Miller is the greatest tight end since Gronk, which is clearly not the case considering those same two clips are about the only two highlights of what has been an otherwise forgettable NFL career.
Though Miller is now entering his seventh year as a pro, he’s only seen actual game action in four of those years, and in none of them has he played a full 16-game regular season slate. So why should we even care about him as a free agent?
Two reasons. One: he plays at a position that’s hard to find sustainable talent at, and he actually had a decent season in 2015. And two: he was one of the few pleasant surprises and playmakers on an otherwise-horrid Bears team last season.
Vitals
Age:Â 31
Notable stat: had the longest TD reception by a Bear in five years last season (87 yards)
All-Pro teams: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
Contract comparison
Miller just completed a one-year deal that paid him $660,000. While he didn’t set the league on fire, he definitely outplayed his contract and is deserving of a longer deal and pay bump.
Brent Celek of the Philadelphia Eagles is the perfect role model for what Miller should look for in a new contract; both players are past their prime (each is 31) yet still effective on the field, and neither is the top player at their position on their own team (Martellus Bennett is the more talented Bears tight end; Zach Ertz has more upside on the Eagles).
Regardless, Celek just inked a three-year extension with Philly in January that will pay him $13 million. Expect Miller and his agent to look for something similar.
Estimate:Â 2 years/$11 million/$5 million guaranteed
Will he stay?
Miller’s situation largely hinges on what the team decides to do with Martellus Bennett this offseason. Bennett has demonstrated good chemistry with Bears quarterback Jay Cutler in the past, but last season was a major down year for the Black Unicorn; he easily had his worst output across every statistical category since coming to Chicago three years ago. If Bears GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox are willing to chalk up 2015 as a fluke, then Bennett probably resumes his starting role and figures to eat up most of the playing time Miller would otherwise receive.
In that scenario, it seems unlikely the Bears would pay a lot to retain Miller as a backup tight end, even given Bennett’s injury history. Pace is reportedly allowing Miller to test the market for himself, so there’s a chance he finds a better deal elsewhere. If Bennett gets cut or traded, or if Miller receives little to no interest from other teams, then there’s a much better chance he stays in the Windy City.
If he leaves …
The Green Bay Packers aren’t usually big players in free agency, but they could stand to benefit from adding a guy like Miller. Besides the obvious advantage of giving arguably the best quarterback in football another guy to throw to, Miller would offer quality depth at a position that’s fairly uninspiring on the Packers roster.
Another NFC playoff team from last year, the Arizona Cardinals, could also use Miller’s soft hands and experience on their explosive offense. While the Cards enjoyed terrific production at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver in 2015, tight end was the only skill position offensively that seemed to lag behind the rest. There’s no doubt Bruce Arians would find innovative ways to work Miller into his attack.
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