New York Rangers shaky California road trip exposes issues
The New York Rangers went west in search of success and found three points, but some glaring issues were exposed.
The New York Rangers currently find themselves sitting second in the Metropolitan Division, trailing only the league-leading Washington Capitals. It’s a familiar position for the Rangers; after reaching the Eastern Conference finals in each of the last two seasons, they’re once again in contention and are on their way to clinching a playoff spot for the sixth consecutive season.
While good goaltending has long been considered a strength for this team during the Henrik Lundqvist era, it is now transforming into an area of concern.
Last week, the Rangers traveled west to take on the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks, and many saw this three-game California road trip as a big measuring stick for the Rangers. Not because of the Ducks, Kings and Sharks’ success this season, but because all three teams do a good job of controlling possession and shot attempts.
The Kings are the league’s best possession team, the Ducks third best and the Sharks also sit in the top half of the league in terms of controlling shot attempts. The Rangers sit 27th, as only Arizona, New Jersey and Colorado have been worse in terms of controlling play.
While the Rangers started off the road trip with a big win in Anaheim and somehow walked away with a point in Los Angeles, the 4-1 loss in San Jose was atrocious, and it exposed some glaring issues.
The Rangers failed to control possession throughout the road trip and walked away with a shot attempt differential of -15 or worse in all three games.
To some this may not seem all to problematic, because as I mentioned, the Ducks, Kings and Sharks are good possession teams.
However, this is a reoccurring issue for the Rangers, who rank 28th in shot attempt differential this season at a whopping -352. Yes, the Rangers have allowed opponents to attempt 352 more shots so far this season. Somehow, the Rangers sit with 90 points, and as of today, would have home ice in the opening round of the playoffs.
That’s the glory of having Henrik Lundqvist as the last line of defense. You can sweep poor play and reoccurring issues under the rug at times when you have Lundqvist consistently bailing you out.
Of goaltenders who have played 1,000 minutes so far this season, Lundqvist ranks first in shot attempts against, and the Rangers are a 46.8% possession team with Lundqvist in net. Basically, Lundqvist is working harder than any other goaltender, as his team offers little support.
To make this a bit more clear, the Rangers rank 27th in even strength scoring chance differential, and they rank 28th in even strength high danger scoring chance differential, adding to the notion that Lundqvist bails this team out more often than not.
Is this surprising? When you take a look at the Rangers team that reached the Stanley Cup finals two years ago and compare it to this year’s team, it’s night and day.
Slowly but surely, the Rangers are regressing to who they truly are: a team that has a hard time controlling play but has the luxury of relying on one of the game’s best goaltenders. It’s a consistent decline too. Last year’s Rangers team saw their Corsi% decline about 2%, and this year’s team has once again seen a similar 2% decline in Corsi.
So what do we make of this Rangers team?
With a combined cap hit of $25.925 million and three no movement clauses in effect this season, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Keith Yandle, Dan Boyle, Marc Staal and Kevin Klein have been a poor defensive unit and are not earning their money, to say the least.
Girardi alone has been terrible. Of the 104 defensemen who have played a minimum of 1,000 minutes at even strength so far this season, Girardi ranks dead last in Corsi%, relative Corsi% and relative Corsi against%. When Lundqvist is in net, the Rangers are a far better team with Girardi off the ice, which is alarming as Girardi ranks second among Rangers skaters in ice time per game. Marc Staal doesn’t escape the criticism either; he ranks second to last in relative goals for% among defensemen who have logged at least 1,000 minutes at even strength this season.
Its safe to say that we should assume this Rangers team banks completely on good goaltending as they fail to control possession on a nightly basis. It’s alarming to see how much their even strength play has regressed since the 2013-2014 season.
It’s not even an analytics thing at this point, it’s simply a realization that this team can’t control possession like they once had been able to do. That should make for a tired defensive unit, and more importantly, a tired goaltender in the latter stages of a playoff series.
The Penguins are playing without Evgeni Malkin and are now breathing down the neck of the Rangers in the standings. You can go ahead and say what you want, how the Rangers could beat the Penguins in a playoff series, but again, the Malkin-less Penguins are sitting right behind the completely healthy Rangers in the standings. Yikes.
The Rangers went west in search of gold and somehow stumbled upon a little bit of it as they escaped with three points. But they were exposed in the process, and if Lundqvist isn’t playing out of his mind in the playoffs, don’t expect this team to find gold often in a seven-game series.
Graphs via Onlinecharttool.com All statistics via War-on-ice.com & Corsica.hockey.com