As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Chicago Bulls.
The Chicago Bulls were supposed to be remade last season, freed from the oppression of Tom Thibodeau and enlightened by the uptempo offense of Fred Hoiberg. Instead, they missed the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. In need of another makeover, this one roster-focused to match Hoiberg’s system, the Bulls have certainly been active.
Inputs: Denzel Valentine (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 14); Paul Zipser (SF, NBA Draft pick No. 48); Rajon Rondo (PG, signed for two years, $28 million); Dwyane Wade (SG, signed for two years, $47.5 million); Jerian Grant (PG, traded from the New York Knicks); Robin Lopez (C, traded from the New York Knicks); Isaiah Canaan (PG, signed for two years, $2.2 million)
Outputs: Mike Dunleavy (SF, traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers); Joakim Noah (C, signed with the New York Knicks); Derrick Rose (PG, traded to the New York Knicks), Pau Gasol (C, signed with the San Antonio Spurs), E’Twaun Moore (SG, signed with the New Orleans Pelicans)
Retained: None
Pending: None
The Bulls front office talked a lot about getting younger and more athletic. Ultimately, they decided to go in the opposite direction. Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade bring name recognition but they’re both well past prime and bring serious questions about how they’ll fit together and with the rest of the roster.
Denzel Valentine was one of the best players in college basketball last year and his shooting and basketball IQ will be welcome additions to this team. However, he looks like he will struggle considerably on the defensive end which is a problem for a team that now lacks reliable perimeter defenders outside of Jimmy Butler.
Robin Lopez will rebound and block shots. Isaiah Canaan will put up some garbage time buckets. Jerian Grant may or may not be part of the future. But overall the Bulls seem to have assembled a win-now roster that might not actually be that good.
3 Big Questions
To really dig deep on Chicago’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Bulls expertise. Michael Whitlow (@MAWhitlow) is an editor for FanSided’s Pippen Ain’t Easy. Sean Highkin (@highkin) is the Chicago Bulls reporter for Bleacher Report, as well as co-host of the Locked on Bulls podcast. Jeff Feyerer (@jfey5) is a regular contributor to FanSided’s Nylon Calculus.
Michael, Sean, and Jeff were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Chicago’s offseason.
How are you feeling about this Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade pairing in the backcourt?
Michael Whitlow: Well, let’s see: three under 33-percent three-point shooters for their careers for a coach that has a system revolved around the three-point shot. Yeah, it’s a match made in heaven.
In all seriousness, Dwyane Wade is still a very good basketball player. It’s a good signing for leadership, production and the 12-time All-Star gets to come home to play in Chicago. It’s a cool signing, but not a good one; at least for what the Bulls are trying to do under Fred Hoiberg. This move is the complete opposite of the “younger and more athletic” mantra that Bulls general manager Gar Forman kept spewing throughout the summer.
Rajon Rondo’s signing is even worse personnel-wise and simply because he’s a bad basketball player and a worse teammate. Signing a point guard that’s already 30 and has openly admitted to not playing defense is a terrible move for the “younger and more athletic” Bulls, who were pretty bad themselves defensively last season. It’s basically a one-year rental with Rondo’s partially guaranteed year in 2017-18, but it’s still a horrible signing.
Now, take those two and put them in there with a ball-dominant, mid-range player like Jimmy Butler has become. How can anyone look at this trio in the current juncture and think this is going to work? I guess the term “spacing” wasn’t thrown around that much during the free agency chaos. If people though the Bulls locker room was bad last year, wait until the Bulls’ first blowout loss next season.
Sean Highkin: It’s not just that pairing that’s awkward, it’s how either of them fit with Jimmy Butler. Rondo himself referred to that trio as the “Three Alphas,” which is going to become a ubiquitous hashtag by the end of the year. Three ball-dominant guards, two of whom are past their primes, none of whom can shoot — it’s going to be an experiment.
Jeff Feyerer: Seriously, I don’t know what to think at this point. The acquisition of Rondo and Wade are so totally foreign to how this front office has operated and from their words, were intending to operate. You have two former All-Stars on the back nine of their careers and who have had significant issues (Rondo with his “attitude” and Wade with his injuries).
Their games don’t seem to jive within the context of the current NBA, but at the same time, who’s to say it won’t work until we see it. I wrote a piece for Nylon Calculus discussing the Wade/Rondo/Butler combo as well as the Fred Hoiberg offensive system. People seem to forget that Hoiberg’s offensive system isn’t predicated on creating space to shoot threes. His offense wants to get quick, good shots, often times within the arc. Another layer is that with Wade and Butler (and at one time Rondo), the Bulls have two players that remain in the Top 10 in free throw rate in the league and excel at getting to the line. As 3PA rates have risen, FTA rates have fallen.
The Bulls, in the absence of outstanding, or even mediocre, three point shooters at the guard position are relying on a very old school way of creating offense. High ball screens involving Rondo and high-post isos with Wade and Butler would seem to be the direction they will be going offensively to get those guys the ball. The effectiveness of it will be predicated on the ability of forwards Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott to be consistent enough from the outside to create space while also not being severe liabilities on defense to the point they can’t play alongside each other or with other defensively limited players.
Defensively, Wade will be hidden on the most deficient offensive player on the opposition as Butler draws the toughest wing assignment which should be fine. Most of them playing together, which appears to be the goal, would depend on how engaged Rondo is on the defensive end. Taking plays off and playing below his defensive capabilities as he did last season will make it almost impossible for this group to thrive as I don’t anticipate they will generate enough offense to mask the defensive liabilities.
With all that being said, so little went right last season with the Bulls, that I’m willing to just say screw it, let’s try this and see what happens.
Assuming Jimmy Butler now plays more minutes at small forward to accommodate Wade, how does the Tony Snell, Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic, Denzel Valentine logjam shake out around that?
Michael Whitlow: The depth chart for the Bulls on the wing is just bad. It’s been bad since before Derrick Rose’s body began to fail him.
Butler’s going to play more of his natural spot at the three with Rondo and Wade in the fold, but there’s only two spots in the lineup left and one of those is Robin Lopez locked in to the center position. Plus, with Mirotic and Bobby Portis looking like the bigs of the future for the Bulls, there’s a logjam of guys up front too. Mirotic, Portis and Taj Gibson (who should be moved to clear some of the congestion) are all fours. Cristiano Felicio does look like a good backup for Lopez, but it’s simply chaos trying to figure out the Bulls as of now.
Mirotic and McDermott will have to play because they’re the only two guys that can relatively shoot consistently from beyond the arc. The issue with that is they’re both bad defenders. Mirotic is ahead of McDermott on the defensive end, but that’s not really saying much. He’s the lesser of two bads at this point in their careers.
On top of that, Tony Snell looks lost whether he’s in the game or not and of course, the Bulls drafted one of the oldest players in the entire draft class in Denzel Valentine with their lottery pick.
Younger and more athletic!
The most promising player behind Jimmy Butler in this group of guys is still Mirotic. From starting him at the four early last season and through this summer, it appears Hoiberg wants Mirotic to be the power forward of the future.
Through his performance in Vegas, Valentine has shown promise to be a good offensive player. He’s got a good feel for the game on that end, but he’s frighteningly slow on the other end of the floor. The Bulls can play these guys and attempt to run a bigger rotation, especially if Wade’s health issues come back into play. But, playing guys like McDermott and Snell for long periods of games isn’t in the Bulls’ best interest.
Sean Highkin: You can go ahead and take Snell’s name out of that equation, first of all. He doesn’t figure into their long-term plans at all and showed nothing last year to indicate that he’s going to get meaningful minutes. Mirotic will probably start at power forward, just because you have to have one starter who’s a threat to shoot from the outside. That’s his natural position anyway. Fred Hoiberg has hinted that McDermott might play some four as well, but it will be between him and Valentine for the backup small forward minutes. Valentine could see some minutes in the backcourt, too. It’s all very fluid at this point.
Jeff Feyerer: I think Tony Snell is done so let’s get that out of the way early. I was a huge Snell supporter the past few years mainly because I wanted them to play him to find out what they had. We found out. And it wasn’t good. He can probably be fine as a situational three-point shooter where he shot 36 percent, but his two-point percentage dropped from 49 percent in 2015 to 38 percent last year. And he doesn’t get to the line enough to justify that. If they can’t trade him, I think he sets up shop next to Spencer Dinwiddie as the 11th and 12th men.
That leaves McDermott, Mirotic and Valentine. As you look at the roster, Lopez is obviously the starting center and the right match at power forward would probably be Mirotic. If Gibson were to start, the spacing would be akin to all five players being sucked into a black hole stationed at the free throw line. If Mirotic starts at the 4, that leaves Taj Gibson to see minutes at the 5 which opens up minutes at the 4 for both Bobby Portis and McDermott. McDermott came out of college playing the 4 and 5 and at 6-8 does have the length to play the spot in spurts. In fact, his better matchup may be against stretch 4s as opposed to quicker 3s. That means some of McDermott’s minutes at the 3 get reallocated to Valentine who can play both spots.
If there is one thing I am looking forward to with this Bulls team it is the flexibility they seem to have on their bench that they didn’t have previously. If Rondo, Wade, Butler, Mirotic and Lopez start that leaves Jerian Grant — who can play either guard spot, Valentine — who can play some 1 along with 2, 3, McDermott — at 3 and 4, Portis — at 4 and some 5 in a pinch, and Gibson, who physically should be more than capable backing up Lopez at the 5 as well as his customary 4.
By the end of this season, Denzel Valentine will be .
Michael Whitlow: By the end of this season, Denzel Valentine will be forgotten in the Rookie of the Year voting, but he’ll be a rotation player that can help the Bulls push the pace and hit the outside shot consistently. Valentine’s not a lightning bolt by any means on the floor, but he’s an intelligent player that feels like a great fit for what Fred Hoiberg expects his guards to do offensively.
I would like Valentine’s potential to produce even more by season’s end if the Bulls didn’t already have Rajon Rondo, Jerian Grant and Spencer Dinwiddie as their three floor generals, plus the recent Isaiah Canaan signing and the Butler-Wade duo needing the ball.
Once again, congestion and chaos everywhere.
Sean Highkin: A rotation player. He’s too smart and fundamentally sound not to be, and he’s one of approximately three players on the roster who’s a three-point shooting threat. How prominently he figures into the rotation will depend on his development on the defensive end of the floor. Nobody expects him to guard the other team’s best player (and they have Butler for that anyway), but if he can hold his own against league-average wings, he should have no trouble finding minutes.
Jeff Feyerer: A serviceable glue guy. I know this isn’t the expectation from a lottery pick, but its more than enough right now for the Bulls. He’s going to hit shots, he’s going to be an above average secondary distributor and he’s going to rebound well for the guard. This will allow the Bulls to get the ball up the floor quicker if they have guards that can both rebound and push the pace like they do in Rondo, Wade, Butler, and Valentine.
The problem, like we’ve seen through a few summer league games, is his athletic deficiencies on defense. While he may be praised for his smarts and ability to improve, like he did each year at Michigan State, his shortcomings on defense are significant, as they often are for most young players. I think that will be the difference between him playing 12 minutes and 20 minutes this season.
I’m higher on Valentine than most and I can envision lineups with Valentine, McDermott and Mirotic on the court at the same time with three-pointers being bombed from every which way, but it all is predicated on him being a serviceable team defender.
The Chicago Bulls have been as active as anyone this offseason in moving big pieces in and out. Rose, Noah, and Gasol are all gone. In their place Chicago has built one of the strangest stylistic backcourts in recent memory, pairing Rondo and Wade. Both players peaked nearly a decade ago. Both are used to having the ball in their hands and there are obvious questions about how that will mesh with Jimmy Butler who has also grown into a primary shot-creator. And then, of course, there is the three-point shooting.
As the league has increasingly emphasized shooting and space, Rondo and Wade stand in stark contrast. The graph below shows all guards who played at least 5,000 total minutes over the past five seasons, ordered by their total three-point makes.
To put that in context, John Salmons has made about as many three-pointers (203) over the past five seasons as Wade and Rondo have combined (214). This is not to say that the pairing is doomed to fail, just that the level of difficulty is high and that creativity will need to be at a premium.
For more NBA coverage and analysis, visit the FanSided NBA hub page.