Memphis Grizzlies offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Memphis Grizzlies.

Ravaged by injuries, the Memphis Grizzlies used an NBA-record 28 players last season. A strong early part of the season was enough to keep them in the playoffs but this seemed like the swan song from the interior-focused, Grit-and-Grind-era. In need of a dramatic makeover, what were the Grizzlies able to accomplish this summer.

Inputs: Wade Baldwin IV (PG, NBA Draft pick No. 17); Deyonta Davis (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 31); Rade Zagorac (SF, NBA Draft pick No. 35); Wang Zhelin (C, NBA Draft pick No. 57); Chandler Parsons (SF, signed for four years, $94 million); Troy Daniels (SG, signed for three years, $10 million); James Ennis (SF, signed for two years, $6 million);  Andrew Harrison (SG, signed for three years, $3 million)

Outputs: Lance Stephenson (SG, unsigned); Xavier Munford (SG, unsigned); P.J. Hairston (SF, unsigned); Jordan Farmar (PG, unsigned); Bryce Cotton (PG, unsigned); Matt Barnes (SF, signed with the Sacramento Kings); Chris Andersen (C, signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers); Tony Wroten (PG, unsigned); Nick Calathes (PG, unsigned),

Retained: Mike Conley (PG, signed for five years, $153 million)

Pending: None

Baldwin and Davis were both great values for where they were taken, and fit with the ideal of a younger and more athletic Memphis Grizzlies. The problem is that both are fairly raw. Baldwin has potential as a dynamic creator and defender but is turnover prone and may struggle adjusting to leading an NBA offense. Davis is even more unseasoned and may spend some of the season in the D-League. They are great pieces for the future but might not be ready to contribute much this season.

As usual, the Grizzlies were shopping for shooting and defense on the wings and a found a little of each in Daniels, Ennis, and Harrison. The problem is that none of them can really do both. Luckily, they were able to land Chandler Parsons. With his shooting, defense, playmaking, and positional flexibility he could be the piece the Grizzlies have long been missing.

Of course, the biggest move of the summer was convincing Mike Conley to return. He is not flashy but has become one of the most reliable two-way point guards in the league and deserves as much credit as anyone for this era of Grizzlies basketball.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Memphis’ offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Grizzlies expertise. Kevin Yeung (@KevinHFY) is a contributor to Hardwood Paroxysm and SBNation’s Grizzly Bear Blues. Joe Mullinax (@JoeMullinax) is the site manager for SBNation’s Grizzly Bear Blues and the host of Grizzly Bear Blues Live. Keith Parish (@FastBreakBreak) is one of the hosts of the podcast Fastbreak Breakfast.

Kevin, Joe, and Keith were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Memphis’ offseason.

What does Chandler Parsons mean for the Grizzlies offense?

Kevin Yeung: Less mud, hopefully. I love my Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol bully-ball as much as the next guy, but they were never going to get far while running offense within the boundaries of the post. The Grizzlies finally have their shooter — a 40-percent guy who can defend well enough to stick for 30 minutes nightly — and that’s going to increase the efficiency of everything they do, before even factoring how they can take advantage of Parsons’ playmaking juice.

How Parsons will really change the Grizzlies, though, will be when he toggles to the 4. The Grizzlies’ last 3-and-D guy was Courtney Lee, but due to his size, he’s strictly a wing for lineup purposes. Until now, they’ve never really had a modern combo forward like Parsons, who allows them to play smaller and faster at the power position. They’re still deficient in established perimeter guys who can fill out a four-out lineup, but the option is there now, for the present and for the future (health allowing). I’m so excited.

Joe Mullinax: In a word — everything. He is what has been missing throughout this Grit-and-Grind era of the past six seasons. His ability to score in a variety of ways (especially from range) combined with his size allows for Memphis to create mismatches on the offensive end of the floor more consistently. His issues as a defender are overblown — he is below average at worst, which is nowhere near as bad as some make it out to be — and his ability to play the four in small ball looks will allow for spacing and offensive opportunity that the Grizzlies haven’t had in…well…ever. He can handle for a bigger forward, he can drive-and-kick potentially against less fleet of foot defenders, and in the pick-and-pop with Mike Conley he can be devastating.

Any and all concerns about his knees are fair. Health is the key word for these Grizzlies this season — if Parsons (in addition to Mike Conley and Marc Gasol) can stay on the court and play to their capabilities, this may be the best starting lineup in Grizzlies history. If he misses games like he has the past two seasons? Memphis’ depth will be tested, and at the moment they are not as deep of a roster as they were last season pre-injury.

Keith Parish: Too little too late. As in, Chandler Parsons and the offense he provides could have been the final piece for the 2013-2015 Grizzlies rosters to take them from “gritty nuisance of the elite” to actually being elite. But with Marc the Sharc coming off a troublesome foot fracture and Zbo and Grindfather approaching the ends of their careers, he is likely too little too late for hopes of a championship parade on Beale Street. And as the roster currently sits in July, Parsons doesn’t look to have much opportunity to slide down to play the 4 because Memphis has a glut of bigs and a dearth of talent on the wings to form a competitive small ball lineup. However, if Gasol recovers [nearly] in full and Randolph and Conley look like themselves, Parsons does appear to be that elusive, versatile, volume shooting wing and playmaker the in-the-mud Grizzlies have long coveted and will help extend their six-season playoff streak for at least a couple more years.

Wade Baldwin IV and Deyonta Davis will be                               this season.

Yeung: Hyped. For perfectly good reason, too. That right there is a pair of lottery-bound prospects that fell to the Grizzlies at 17 and 31. Draft position is a poor barometer for success, but it functions perfectly well as impetus for rookie love. This has always been a youth-starved team, but the tail end of the roster is operating more and more like a pseudo-farm system, with Baldwin and Davis as the crown jewels of the lot. Every small step in their development this season will be celebrated like the second coming of Jordan Adams. I’m so excited.

Mullinax: INCONSISTENT, as most rookies are, in terms of play. But their inconsistency will also be in terms of role. Will Baldwin be expected to be a contributing rotation player early, or will he sit on the bench and watch games, gaining experience? Will Deyonta Davis somehow stick on the main roster, or will he spend much of his 2016-2017 in Iowa with the Grizzlies D-League affiliate the Iowa Energy? Trades and such are certainly still possible this early in the offseason, and Memphis’ front court is pretty full at the moment. That will impact Davis’ early opportunities.

Vince Carter aside, there is a clear youth movement with the Grizzlies roster at the moment. That leads to uncertainty on the bench and just how these two 2016 draft picks will be deployed. They are clearly a part of Memphis’ future, but their contributions to the present of the Grizzlies will be very fluid month to month and even week to week.

Parish: I guess “useless” is too insulting of a word, so I’ll go with underwhelming. Deyonta Davis sits well back on the depth chart behind the aforementioned glut of bigs and he missed summer league with a previously undisclosed foot injury (a Memphis specialty, right behind BBQ spaghetti), so it won’t surprise me if he doesn’t get on the court unless there is a roster shake-up. Wade Baldwin IV will be desperately needed to contribute immediately in the backcourt, but his youth and lack of NBA-ready handle/vision/offense could be frustrating hurdles for him and the fans alike (cut to memories of rookie Nick Calathes getting booed at home). I would expect the Grizzlies to try and get a more veteran option so he can come along more slowly. My optimism is very much in check for these young rookies this season, but in a couple years when they can both legally walk in a bar they should be ready for large roles.

Which under-the-radar signing are you most excited for: Andrew Harrison, Troy Daniels, or James Ennis?

Yeung: It’s definitely Ennis. Andrew Harrison is vanilla to me, and Troy Daniels is like another Mike Miller (literally, but also in the sense that for all the cult worship he’s going to get, nobody wants to see him for more than 10 to 15 minutes per game). Ennis, though! He’s 6’7 and 210 lbs, which already gives him a leg up on the other two in terms of NBA fit, and he ended the season averaging 15.9 points over nine games (including back-to-back 28- and 29-point performances) as a mercenary-for-10 day hire with the Pelicans.

Solomon Hill got paid $12 million per year over four years for a strong series of games to end his season; the Grizzlies got Ennis for $12 million over two years. Nothing against Hill, who made his money in the playoffs as opposed to the final days of the regular season, but Ennis is comparatively a great value. I’m so excited.

Mullinax: Troy Daniels. David Fizdale is all about player development, which is reason to be optimistic about the younger players brought in this offseason so far. Daniels could be Coach Fizz’s Sistine Chapel if he can make him a consistent rotation player. A player with the shooting skill of Daniels not being more sought after or steady in terms of playing time means there are serious holes in Troy’s game. But, he provides a specific talent that can help the inside-out Grizzlies immensely. If Fizdale can make him a serviceable defender and capable of making defenses honor more than just his catch and shoot game? He could be a huge piece of the Grizzlies bench this season.

Parish: James Ennis by a mile. Or at least by process of elimination. Andrew Harrison is a rookie without much of a jumper who uses hesitation moves to draw fouls from D-League refs as a primary offensive option, and I’m dubious that skill will translate. Troy Daniels is a poor man’s Anthony Morrow who can’t seem to get on the court despite having the one skill in universal demand: shooting (and was also a guy that NBA Twitter and bloggers unanimously thought the Grizzlies should sign, which means he won’t work out).

James Ennis is a prototypical 3-and-D athletic wing who virtually only shoots at the basket or from behind the arc. Both David Fizdale with the Heat and the Grizzlies have had him under roster before, so it would seem they agree Ennis can contribute to a winning organization on the court and has plenty of room to develop if given the opportunity. And lastly, Ennis has actually started an NBA game that his team won. #analytics

The same old hole

It seems like every summer the Memphis Grizzlies are on the hunt for the same thing — a wing who can hit three-pointers and defend his position. The truth is, they’ve had a few players who handled those responsibilities and the problems ran a little bit deeper. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Chandler Parsons seems like an ideal match for the Grizzlies’ need for a wing who can be a 3-and-D-and-more player.

The appeal of Parsons is both in the versatility of his offensive game, but also in his ability to slide up and work as a small-ball power forward. The Grizzlies have not just been lacking shooting, they’ve also been missing the flexibility to push their lineups into different styles of play. If we look at the team’s cumulative Wins Over Replacement Player (WORP) since 2009-10, separated by position, we see that the hole is really at both forward spots.

Rudy Gay is responsible for more than two-thirds of the team’s WORP at small forward over this time span, and he hasn’t played for the Grizzlies for more than three seasons. Even more concerning is that Zach Randolph is responsible for more than 90 percent of the team’s WORP at power forward.

Those two forward spots have really been the limiting factors. The small forward position is the most obvious, but the inability to find an effective backup for Randolph — particularly one who allows the Grizzlies to change their style of play in those minutes — has been at least as big a challenge. If he can stay healthy, Chandler Parsons is exactly what the Grizzlies needed.

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