San Antonio Spurs offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the San Antonio Spurs.

The San Antonio Spurs followed the greatest regular season in franchise history with a frustratingly early playoff exit at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder. With the announcement that Tim Duncan was retiring, they face the challenge of trying to return to championship contention without the greatest player in franchise history.

Inputs: Dejounte Murray (PG, NBA Draft pick No. 29); Pau Gasol (PF, signed for two years, $30 million); Dewayne Dedmon (C, signed for two years, $6 million); Ryan Arcidiacono (PG, signed for partially guaranteed minimum); Bryn Forbes (SG, partially guaranteed minimum); Davis Bertans (PF, signed for two years, details undisclosed)

Outputs: Boris Diaw (PF, traded to the Utah Jazz); Tim Duncan (PF, retired); David West (PF, signed with the Golden State Warriors); Andre Miller (PG, unsigned); Kevin Martin (SG, unsigned); Matt Bonner (PF, unsigned); Boban Marjanovic (C, signed with the Detroit Pistons)

Retained: Manu Ginobili (SG, signed for one year, $10 million)

Pending: None

Most of the Spurs’ moves so far this offseason have been on the output side. Obviously, the most significant is Duncan’s retirement but they also shipped Boris Diaw to Utah and watched David West and Boban Marjanovic sign elsewhere. Those four players, along with LaMarcus Aldridge, essentially comprised the entirety of the team’s big man rotation, which looks a lot like starting from scratch.

Dewayne Dedmon is a competent fourth big and a very good rim protector, but doesn’t provide much on offense. Pau Gasol still has plenty of offensive skill but has slowed over the past few years. His defense has become a fairly significant problem as well. The Spurs are probably still looking for a few more pieces to flesh out this part of their roster.

Dejounte Murray was an incredible value, pegged by many as a potential lottery pick. He’s big for a point guard (although lacks some natural point guard instincts), brings a ton of athleticism and a ton of inexperience. He could be an important roster component down the road but likely won’t contribute much this season. Manu is back for one more ride, but the Spurs backcourt rotation is looking almost as thin as the frontcourt.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on San Antonio’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Spurs expertise. Michael Rehome (@texasgmr) is one of the editors for FanSided’s Air Alamo. Matthew Tynan (@Matthew_Tynan) is a contributor to RealGM and the TrueHoop Network’s 48 Minutes of Hell. Jacob Rosen (@JacobLRosen) is a contributor to FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm.

Michael, Matthew, and Jacob were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about San Antonio’s offseason.

How much will the Spurs miss Boban Marjanovic next season?

Michael Rehome: The San Antonio Spurs needed to get a more athletic big in their lineup and as much as the fans would of wanted to see Marjanovic back in a Spurs uniform, I don’t feel that the Spurs will miss him much. He logged just under 10 minutes a game and though he was productive at times, his movement on the floor could cost the Spurs. In a half-court set he would be a great rim protector, but even at that, his ability to get off the floor is slow. He has a soft touch around the rim and frankly could of developed into a decent shooter with help from Chip Engelland. But I just don’t feel that him being gone will hurt the Spurs.

Matthew Tynan: They’ll miss him because Spurs fans will miss him, and because his personality was such a good fit in that locker room and that culture. Those two elements made him an enjoyable part of their organization. But aside from that, losing BOBAN! isn’t going to break San Antonio. In fact, replacing him with Dedmon will almost certainly give them more of what they need at that position — a big, long athlete who can rebound and protect the rim. I appreciate Jacob mentioning the narrative that framed Manu’s contract as the impetus for the decision to release Marjanovic, because the numbers don’t break down that way. On paper, it seems as if they made the conscious decision: Dedmon instead of Boban. Had they wanted the opposite, it was a realistic possibility to move a few mil around to make it happen.

At the risk of writing a novel, I’ll conclude: Boban is a very skilled big man with uncommon touch and mobility at his size, but he’s very raw as an NBA player. You can’t run much pick-and-roll with him offensively, and he’s as average (if not below-average) a shot-blocker in space as you’ll see at 7’3, unless you’re trapped on the baseline under the basket where there’s literally no way to go but straight up. Then it’s like trying to jump through a ceiling. He’s fun to watch, but the Spurs will miss him less than their fans will…until the next favorite comes along.

Jacob Rosen: It’s interesting how people are framing it as the Philadelphia 76ers costing the Spurs Boban Marjanovic with their aggressive bid for Manu Ginobili. Do people forget that the Spurs also nabbed Orlando backup center Dewayne Dedmon with the room mid-level exception? How much better is Boban over Dedmon? In the last two years in Orlando, Dedmon chipped in 4 points and 4.5 rebounds in 13.2 minutes per game. Boban, as great and fun and efficient as he is, only played 9.4 minutes per game last season and would be limited to 12-15 anywhere he plays. So I don’t think this drop-off is too substantial. The Spurs obviously downgraded from Tim Duncan-Boban to Pau Gasol-Dedmon, but they should still be mostly fine.

Dejounte Murray will be                              next season.

Michael Rehome: The gem of the draft. The San Antonio Spurs continue to find the player that could come on the team and be productive. He won’t make an impact right away but has shown in the Summer League that he has the skills to play at the highest level. Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons are now veterans, and with an influx of guards adding to those already on the roster like Patty Mills, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Murray spending more time polishing his skills in the D-League is likely.

Matthew Tynan: A project. The Spurs knew they had to truly start solving their future point guard situation, and they knew they couldn’t afford any longer to take the draft-and-stash route, as they’ve done so often before. General Manager R.C. Buford was clear during the offseason about the team’s need to get younger, longer and more athletic. Murray fits those descriptions perfectly within San Antonio’s roster, but, much like Cory Joseph and Jonathon Simmons before him, he’s gonna be spending a ton of time on I-35 between Austin and San Antonio, back and forth from D-League stints. He’s gonna get playing time, but it’ll be on Tony Parker rest days and in garbage time for the most part to start. Still, he’s very intriguing. It will be interesting to watch how his role develops as the season grinds on. He might be a nice NBA player someday — and he had some flashes of serious promise out in Vegas — but that time is not in the immediate future. Time will tell.

Jacob Rosen: The latest sneaky Spurs pickup who shows some impressive signs, albeit in limited playing time. The Spurs’ main six players are LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green and Patty Mills. Returnees Jonathan Simmons and Kyle Anderson probably have the most trust in Pop’s system after that. So I just don’t see too, too many minutes for Dejounte Murray or fellow newcomer Davis Bertans. But I think both could be fun classic Spurs pickups, for sure.

What are your reasonable expectations for Pau Gasol?

Michael Rehome: The Spurs are dealing with the retirement of Tim Duncan and with Gasol signing it may ease the pain, a little bit. You can’t replace Duncan by any means and Gasol will not be the one to do so. He will be a productive piece to the Spurs at the age of 36. We know age is nothing but a number and the Spurs themselves are an example of that. Gasol is coming off of a season where he averaged just under 18 points, 11.4 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. These are the type of numbers that he could bring to San Antonio. He is coming to a team where Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are the first options on the offensive side, so his scoring may drop but he can still stretch out the defense with his mid-range game.

Matthew Tynan: I don’t really know how to measure this exactly. He’s going to form a super formidable offensive pairing in the front court with Aldridge, but there’s no way to replace Timmy’s defense. Pau’s obviously pretty plodding at his age, but he’s still very smooth and skilled, and can get in the muck and rebound. Going from Duncan to Gasol will also give them another big who can shoot and distribute — Timmy’s shot really took a nosedive over the last couple of years — all the way out to the 3-point line. The offense is going to flow nicely in slower half-court sets like many they ran last season, but I expect you’ll see a jump in efficiency.

Not having the Duncan anchor at the rim is going to be strange to watch, though. The Spurs’ perimeter combo of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green is as good as it gets, and Aldridge showed a willingness to chase smaller guys around the outside much more effectively than he often got credit for, but it was so much easier for them to do that with Duncan in the paint. That will be missed. Still, given the circumstances and the loony free-agent market, this was as good a player as you could’ve asked for to replace your future Hall-of-Famer at the position and stay competitive at that price, if only for a brief time to try and bridge the gap to next summer.

Jacob Rosen: As much as some parts of Bulls Twitter despised Pau Gasol over the last two years, he was still very productive. Yes, he just turned 36 years old. Yes, Gasol’s not really a consistent defensive contributor at this stage in his career. Yes, he’s probably not even as mobile as 39-year-old Tim Duncan was last season. But Pau still averaged 17.6 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.0 blocks (for whatever blocks are worth in terms of overall defensive value) in Chicago! He’ll average less in a smaller role in San Antonio, but I think he’ll still be a very good scorer, rebounder and passer and fit very well in what San Antonio wants to do. Gasol-Aldridge defensive lineups make me somewhat queasy defensively … but on offense, they’ll be very tough to stop.

The throwback

One of the most remarkable things about Gregg Popovich’s tenure as coach of the Spurs has been his ability to adapt. Over the course of the decade they evolved from a deliberate and defensive focused juggernaut, to one of the early progenitors of the uptempo pace-and-space movement. Changing styles in and of itself is not that unique. Pulling it off while maintaining an elite level of performance is nearly unheard of.

The graph below looks at the San Antonio Spurs’ pace and defensive efficiency (relative to the league average) stretching back to their championship at the end of the 2006-07 season.

Here you can see the evolution of the Spurs as their core aged. In 2006-07, the Spurs were an exemplar of an elite defensive team with a grind-it-out offensive approach. Over the ensuing seasons, although the defense always stayed good, it gradually migrated closer to the league average as the team’s pace skyrocketed. And then, something funny happens. The evolution becomes a loop and the Spurs last season end up in almost the exact same place they were during the 2006-07 — elite defense, grinding pace.

As the league is zigging towards speed and spread offenses, the Spurs appear to be zagging back towards a style from a previous era. It is obviously driven by the nature of their roster — maximizing the value of LaMarcus Aldridge meant slowing things down in the half-court and using more post-ups. With the additions they’ve made this summer, it seems like the Spurs would roll even further in this direction.

Pau Gasol has a similar skill set to Aldridge and they’ll likely play significant minutes together. Dedmon was, on a per minute basis, one of the better rim protectors in the league last season according to Nylon Calculus. Size, ball-control, and stout defense appear to be the focus for the Spurs. As Popovich has proved again and again, advantages are often found by cutting against the conventional wisdom. It remains to be seen if he’s stumbled onto yet another formula for success.

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