Toronto Raptors offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Raptors.

It was a bumpy ride but the Toronto Raptors were able to shake off the weight of past playoff failures, advance to the Eastern Conference Finals and give the Cleveland Cavaliers a meaningful challenge there. With the chance to continue building on that momentum, the Raptors made some small but important moves this summer.

Inputs: Jakob Poeltl (C, NBA Draft pick No. 9); Pascal Siakim (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 27); Jared Sullinger (PF, signed for one year, $5.6 million); Fred Van Vleet (PG, signed for one year, partially guaranteed)

Outputs: Bismack Biyombo (C, signed with the Orlando Magic); James Johnson (SF, signed with the Miami Heat), Jason Thompson (PF, unsigned); Luis Scola (PF, signed with the Brooklyn Nets)

Retained: DeMar DeRozan (SG, signed for five years, $139 million)

Pending:  None

Priority one for the Toronto Raptors this summer was re-signing DeMar DeRozan, a task they accomplished fairly quickly. Although DeRozan struggled at times during the playoffs and has some clear weaknesses — average defender and inconsistent three-point shooter — he has found a way to compensate for the places he struggles and has become one of the better shooting guards in the league. The Raptors system is built around DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, their ability to create off the dribble and get to the line. Keeping DeRozan may lower their hypothetical ceiling slightly but it keeps them in the top tier in the Eastern Conference.

Losing Bismack Biyombo will hurt. He was fantastic during the playoffs and his defense was one of the key reasons Toronto’s second unit was one of the best lineups in the league last season. The Raptors couldn’t afford to keep him and DeRozan and the replacements may change the complexion of the team slightly. Jared Sullinger will offer a big body and a presence on the glass he may split time between the starting lineup and manning the middle for the second-unit but is an enormous defensive downgrade.

Jakob Poeltl is ultimately the replacement for Biyombo although it may take awhile before he’s really ready to step in and play those minutes. Poeltl is a polished post scorer who can hit the glass and sees the floor well. He’s not overwhelming athletically but should be capable of being an average defensive player with a little experience. There is a lot of overlap with Jonas Valanciunas and it’s unlikely they’ll play together.

All in all, it was baby steps for the Raptors this summer. Sullinger is probably an upgrade over Luis Scola. Poeltl will, long-term, be better than Biyombo but he makes the second-unit more offensive-minded and it may take a good portion of the season for him to find his rhythm.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Toronto’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Raptors expertise. Brian Boake (@NewmarketBrian) is the editor of FanSided’s Raptors Rapture. Kevin Yeung (@KevinHFY) is a regular contributor to FanSided and FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm. Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) is the managing editor of the TrueHoop Network’s Raptors Republic.

Brian, Kevin, and Blake were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Toronto’s offseason.

With a max deal in hand, what’s next for DeMar DeRozan with the Raptors?

Brian Boake: DeMar DeRozan is a wealthy man. Now his attention must shift away from money and contracts to bringing a championship to Toronto. The Raptors’ shooting guard has improved every element of his game since being drafted with the No. 9 pick in 2009. Last year, he reached personal highs in points per game (23.5) and three-point shooting percentage (33.8). If you aren’t impressed by that second number, you aren’t alone.

If DeRozan is going to advance his game to even greater heights, he must become a better shooter from distance. He takes (and makes a lot of) long two-balls, which surely drives the analytics people up a wall but doesn’t seem to phase coach Dwane Casey. However, we’d all like to see DeMar more conscious of the three-point line, and a bigger threat from behind there.

DeMarre Carroll was signed as a complementary scorer last off-season, but spent the bulk of Raptors games in street clothes due to knee issues. As a result, DeMar exhibited a degree of ball stickiness we hope he will dial down this year. I would be happy for his scoring to stabilize but his assists to increase. DeMar could also stand to upgrade his defensive skills, which are most kindly described as adequate.

All that said, the Raptors most lead DeRozan, and Kyle Lowry, to lead. The team is deep, with enough proven players to allow Casey to play either traditionally or small ball. The Raptors don’t need miracle seasons from anyone, including DeRozan, to compete. Getting to the Eastern Conference finals was fun. Now it’s time for the next step.

Kevin Yeung: Continued growth, hopefully. The Raptors, short those last few inches from contention, tied themselves to a player short those last few inches from being really good (and also, the three-point line). As it stands, sure: DeRozan takes too many midrange jumpers, his on-off net differential stinks, and his team sometimes finds the worst way to lose games / perform self-immolation. S’all good.

It’s hard to build a team around DeRozan. It’s also hard to build a contender, and the Raptors are taking their best chance at it. (Something something long two.) They’re hoping for one last growth spurt, for both player and team, to get to that next level. Cling to the positives: the career-low rate of attempts from midrange and the career-highs in passing, three-point percentage and free throw rate. They might add up to enough some day.

Blake Murphy: As tough as it may be to ask a player nearing the plateau of his development curve, the next thing for DeRozan is simply continued improvement. To his credit, he’s usually come back each season with an extra trick or two in his bag or an improvement in a key area, and his salary is now such that another step forward is expected, not a bonus. (The deal, of course, was market value and he’s a “max player” in this economy, but he can be a better player, still.)

Specifically — and if you’re giving up on the idea of DeRozan ever being an above-average defender, smart given his offensive workload — DeRozan could stand to improve as a playmaker in the pick-and-roll. His passing has improved a great deal over the last few seasons, and four assists from the wing are great, but he’ll often look off pick-and-pop opportunities, miss the dive man, or over-dribble into a reset. As the team looks to get Jonas Valanciunas a larger share of the offense and with Kyle Lowry a fun, quirky screener, DeRozan’s ability to thread the needle or make a quick decision as the ball-handler could unlock some options for the offense. Hopefully running some point for USA Basketball helps open up this part of his game.

The difficulty with giving DeRozan near-max money is that he’s somewhat difficult to build with. If he’s using 25-30 percent of your possessions, you have to play a certain way on offense. That hasn’t been a problem the last few seasons, and DeRozan’s passing and shooting could take further steps forward, which is really the only way the Raptors are going to keep improving — it’s not just on DeRozan, but with little cap flexibility this summer and next, the team’s betting heavily on internal growth if they’re hoping to take a leap. If DeRozan can get even better in his age-27 season, Lowry can maintain his level of play, and one of the youngest winning rosters in the NBA can keep growing together, the Raptors have a chance to at least repeat as “biggest opportunist if LeBron James gets hurt.”

Jakob Poeltl will be                         this season.

Brian Boake: Jakob will not be under pressure. The Raptors don’t need the No. 9 draft pick to step in and become a saviour.

Poeltl’s body doesn’t look ready for the pounding it will take in the NBA. His career path probably takes him to the Toronto suburb of Mississauga, where the D-League team plays. I can see him playing a boatload of minutes there, using the same offensive and defensive sets the big team uses, then joining the Raptors for the late-season push and playoffs.

Toronto is in “win now” mode, and is happy with incumbent centre Jonas Valanciunas. When Poeltl was selected, there was some speculation among Raptors fans that the new kid would step into the void at power forward. I think that notion is misguided; Poeltl is a centre for today’s game. He’s mobile, a solid rebounder and passer, and can create his own shot. But he’s at least two seasons away from breathing down Valanciunas’ neck for the starter’s gig.

Last season’s pick at No. 20 by the Raptors was Utah guard Delon Wright. His positive comments about Poeltl were revealed afterwards as the clinching factor in Jakob’s selection. According to him, Jakob is highly intelligent, responsive to coaching, and a great teammate.

Raptors fans look forward to seeing proof of all those positive qualities in the fullness of time.

Yeung: Eh. As far as new toys go, there isn’t a whole lot about Poeltl that feels… like a new toy. He might be Jonas Valanciunas, but remember how long it took for Jonas Valanciunas to be Jonas Valanciunas? Poeltl strikes me as solid in some ways, bad in a few and a 20 year old in the rest. I guess what I’m trying to say is, he’ll probably be okay, but I can’t imagine getting much excited unless the Raptors run some sort of Pokemon Go gimmick on his name sounding like Squirtle. If they do that, then FINE, I’ll cop his jersey and be a stan for the rest of my days.

Blake Murphy: Proof that you shouldn’t expect much from 20-year-old bigs. I’m a fan of Poeltl both as a safer floor play (a 56-win team with a lottery ticket was definitely justified in looking for someone they can pencil in for the rotation at some point on his rookie scale contract) and as an upside play (the team had him higher on their board than ninth and think his ball skills are underrated; he may end up a starting-caliber five), but he’s not going to be called on much in 2016-17.

Bigs this young simply don’t contribute often unless they’re special talents. The Raptors have Jonas Valanciunas pushing toward 30 minutes at the pivot, Lucas Nogueira is the favorite to land the backup job given his additional experience and advanced age, and the Raptors’ best bench-unit option may wind up being Jared Sullinger as a smaller five. Poeltl can be brought along slowly, see heavy time in the D-League, and ready himself in the event Nogueira flounders behind Valanciunas.

The Austrian will probably be needed at some point and showed encouraging two-way flashes at Summer League, but anyone thinking “lottery pick” is synonymous with “ready to contribute” needs to slow their roll.

How does Jared Sullinger complement the rest of the big man rotation?

Brian Boake: There was universal applause from Raptors supporters when Sullinger was snatched by GM Masai Ujiri. The power forward slot was open in 2015-16 after Amir Johnson decamped to Boston, and no one filled it. Luis Scola was the starter, because someone had to be. He’s now with the woeful Brooklyn Nets. Sullinger is exactly the kind of 4-man the Raptors need, a strong rebounder and banger who can make the occasional jump shot or putback within the flow of the game.

Patrick Patterson was expected to easily nail down the starter’s job last year, but he’s proven to be one of those players who’s more comfortable off the bench. The affectionately nicknamed 2-Pat still has value. He can shoot the three-ball, and is surprisingly quick on his feet for a man of his bulk. As such, he’s a quality defender out to the perimeter. His role won’t change.

The Raptors were so desperate for help at the power forward position that they signed veteran Jason Thompson for the stretch run and playoffs. I have extreme doubts he’ll be in the picture when the new season tips. Toronto drafted relative unknown Pascal Siakam with their other first-round pick (No. 27) in June. He’s a high-motor 4-man almost certainly destined for the D-League, unless he wows everyone in camp.

The Raptors have two front court project players they are still waiting for, “stretch-4” Bruno Caboclo (the subject of Fran Franschilla’s famous “two years away from being two years away” remark during the 2014 draft broadcast) and C Lucas Nogueira. Neither will be on the big team when the games get serious, unless there’s a raft of injuries.

In short, Jared Sullinger should be the opening-night starting power forward. If he’s not, something has gone seriously awry in our town.

Yeung: Well, he’s there. Dunno what he is. Sully’s no stretch four, and he probably shouldn’t even dream of it unless he can get that three-point percentage above 30 percent for once. He’s best off in the post, but that’s Valanciunas territory and pairing him with Patrick Patterson is untenable on the other end. He doesn’t have the size or length to defend the paint, nor the speed to guard bigs with range or pick-and-rolls. There’s no good fit.

Sully will probably do his best work from 20 feet, eking out some few inches of spacing, and that’s what he best represents, a stopgap measure. The open shot, not the best shot. If that three-pointer ever finds itself, though…

Murphy: Complement is a tough word choice here. The truth is, he’s not an ideal fit alongside Jonas Valanciunas at either end of the floor, and the team would probably be best off having him prop up the second-unit offense while the lower-usage, better-defending Patrick Patterson starts at the four. As it is, Sullinger is the favorite to land the starting gig, and that’s fine — fit be damned, he’s a talented player who was willing to sign well below market for a team that had to find a player fitting exactly that description.

In terms of how he’ll fit, there are three primary areas to watch with Sullinger (and no, I’m not going to make the obvious “waistline” joke here): His shooting, his passing, and his not being Luis Scola. Sullinger isn’t a “good” three-point shooter but the Celtics also rarely had him fire from the corners, where threes are easier and a little more open. The Raptors ratcheted up Scola’s corner attempts to previously unthinkable levels, and they’re poised to do the same with Sullinger, who may wind up a low-30s long-range marksman as a result. Sullinger’s skill as a passer should be welcome to an offense that’s looking to improve ball movement, and he adds another piece alongside DeMarre Carroll who can attack a closeout and make the next best, keeping the ball zipping instead of stagnating. And defensively, the Raptors survived with Scola alongside Valanciunas, and Sullinger, while not the most laterally mobile of bigs, is a step up from Scola.

The pairing isn’t exactly pancakes and maple syrup (or bacon and maple syrup, or eggs and maple syrup, or snow and maple syrup), but Sullinger’s a nice add, another option at the four and five, and insurance that the Raptors should once again be a strong rebounding outfit.

How stretchy is Jared Sullinger?

Filling the power forward position was a consistent challenge for the Toronto Raptors last season. Patrick Patterson was a key contributor but seemed to work much better with bench units. DeMarre Carroll, when healthy, worked in certain matchups as a small-ball four. A bulk of the minutes fell, by default, to Luis Scola who actually performed fairly well all things considered.

One of the complicating factors for the Raptors is that they really need outside shooting from that position. Jonas Valanciunas is most effective inside and since DeMar DeRozan isn’t a consistent three-point shooter, spacing can get extremely tight without a three-point shooting threat at power forward. With Scola gone, the Raptors too a one-year gamble on Jared Sullinger to see if he could fill that role with the starting lineup.

When it comes to outside shooting, Sullinger is certainly trying to be a stretchy big — he’s attempted 495 three-pointers over the past three seasons. He just hasn’t been very good at making them. The graph below shows all players, 6-9 or taller, who attempted a minimum of 300 three-pointers over the past three seasons.

Of this group, only Corey Brewer has made a lower percentage of his three-pointers. Sullinger falls in the same tier as Josh Smith, with a considerable degree of accuracy separating him from even questionable shooters like Markieff Morris and Jeff Green.

Sullinger is just 23-years old, certainly not a finished product. However, he’s at 500 career three-point attempts, rapidly approaching the 750 attempt threshold where a player’s three-point percentage tends to stabilize. At this point we can be reasonably sure that Sullinger is not going to become a reliable outside shooter. He is a reasonable gamble for the Raptors and had plenty to offer in other areas. But he’s not the stretch four they’ve been looking for.

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