Chiefs at Steelers: Odds, trends and more
By James Dudko
The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by four for their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs at Heinz Field this Sunday night.
It’s a good line for a contest set to be a tight one between two of the AFC’s best. The visiting Chiefs rely on a tough defense and bigplay-binging special teams, while the Steelers are an offense-driven team in 2016.
The pressure will be on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers to be in sync. They were anything but during Week 3’s 34-3 blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on the road.
Roethlisberger was under constant pressure thanks to an offensive line that crumbled when faced with a relentless front four. It didn’t help that when Roethlisberger did get time to throw his receivers let him down, with Markus Wheaton in particular suffering from a bad case of the drops.
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Odds
Line: PITT (-4)
Over/Under: 48.5
Yet, Roethlisberger’s life is set to get a lot easier with star running back Le’Veon Bell returning from suspension. His presence could spell more balance for the Pittsburgh offense, as well as trouble for the KC D, according to Rob Trites of OddsShark: “Pittsburgh rushed the ball just 10 times in that game against a stout run defense but expect that number to be cranked up significantly against a Chiefs team that has allowed 123 yards on the ground per game.”
But Bell carrying the ball won’t be enough to push the total over 48.5. The Chiefs may yield some yards on the ground, but a Tamba Hali-led front seven can roll down the shutters when it counts. Meanwhile, a Kansas City offense pedestrian in Week 3 will be a welcome sight for a Steelers defense stouter than its showing in Philadelphia suggested.
Quarterback Alex Smith has been sacked nine times through three weeks, good news for a Pittsburgh pass rush needing a breakout game.
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OddsShark points out how the total has gone under in five out of the Chiefs’ last seven. The number goes up to six of seven for the Steelers.
Games between these two are usually close, with 10 points representing the biggest margin of victory in the last five meetings, per Pro Football Reference.
Expect another slugfest between two capable defenses who will keep the offensive talent under wraps.