Prospect Calibration: Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray and Phoenix’s duo
By Cole Zwicker
Including the same introduction as last week, there are multiple ways to assess and convey prospect analysis. There are rookie power rankings, the “rookie ladder”, top players under-23, and stock up/stock down formats. I find all of these too divisive and frankly absurd at this current juncture of the season, with such a limited sample. My goal here every week is to convey to you what I see from prospects 23-or-younger on film, which I’ll do tracking down clips and statistics to corroborate my in-game notes
The intention is for this to read as an in-depth skill breakdown and kind of an observation overview. If you’d like to see a specific player covered, let me know at @colezwicker.
Jaylen Brown’s development test case
Brown is the most interesting test case in the draft. He was the “draft body” of the 2016 class, possessing an advanced frame at 225 pounds with bouncy athleticism. He dominated Summer League from a physical standpoint, relying on sheer athletic gifts to get around defenders and pressure the ball at will. While the physical tools and athleticism are there, this is a player who sported an outlier poor 0.64 assist/turnover ratio at Cal, shot 29.4 percent on 3-pointers on 102 attempts, and 65.4 percent on 217 attempts from the foul line.
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He didn’t look proficient enough as a handler or decision-maker to play effectively on-ball, and didn’t shoot well enough off-ball to thrive there either. But in the right role — mainly as a player capable of manning the 4, switching 1-4 and channeling his tools/athleticism to exert maximum energy on the defensive end — there was an avenue for Brown to thrive, if he knocked down a respectable amount of shots.
While Brown’s real impact on games is still very much in question, what is clear is he belongs athletically and physically on an NBA court. This is the transcendent play of Brown’s season thus far, occurring on national television dunking on LeBron:
It’s bad defense by LeBron, who has no business lunging out on Brown’s shot fake, but Brown’s strength really shines through here. He’s able to keep James on his hip and not get knocked off his route to the basket.
We see another example of Brown’s strength on the other side of the floor, where he’s able to maintain positioning and contest James’ floater without getting dislodged:
When James has a head of steam and dips his shoulder, most players are getting knocked backwards right out of this play. Brown absorbs the blow and still contests, even if it was a potential foul. It’s these kinds of plays that illuminate just how strong Brown is.
Here, his strength is again noticeable, as he moves Tristan Thompson with the shoulder dip and finishes through contact for the and-one (along with traveling):
He can attack closeouts when defenders close out too aggressively like Kaminsky does here, showing that same finish through contact ability:
Most of Brown’s on-ball offense at this point comes on straight line drives to the basket. Through the six games tallied, Brown only has a finished a combined eight isolation and pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions per NBA.com’s play type statistics.
While most of Brown’s offense comes with limited creativity, he has flashed some interesting skill moves operating with the ball:
His agility with the ball to split the two defenders, at a high speed, with high degree of difficulty unorthodox footwork and finish with the left is impressive.
He doesn’t operate out of pick-and-roll a lot, but in this instance he freezes Lopez with the hesitation move and again finishes with his left, showing some ambidexterity:
Brown isn’t consistently the most creative finisher and often times doesn’t seem like he has a plan when he dribble-penetrates:
And again:
The ambidextrous element is definitely something to monitor though.
Right now Brown mostly flashes in off-ball play, utilizing his physical gifts to make impact plays on both sides:
This is just an absurd play by Brown where his athleticism literally jumps off the screen:
Brown’s shot is still inconsistent from range, as he’s 4-of-12 from 3-point range early in the season with three of those makes coming in the Cleveland game. He shows good preparatory footwork catching on the hop here:
You see him twist to the side on his shot frequently, and he doesn’t hold his follow-through this time:
Brown is averaging 1.05 points per possession on 20 spot-up possessions on early in the season per NBA.com, good for the 61st percentile. The sample is still too small obviously to put a lot of credence into, but it’s certainly not a terrible sign. It’s also worth noting that the way those possessions are defined also include plays where he attacks a close-out off the dribble.
The spotty decision-making still rears its ugly head at times, like this transition break which should be an easy two points with a competent pass:
Similarly, Brown fails to execute the simple drop-off pass on a 2-on-1 in transition after a nice dig down steal, which again should be an easy two points:
On the other side of the ball, the defense is still a work in progress. Brown gets lost at times operating off-ball, which was a concern at Cal. Here, he gets back cut and doubles down with fouling on the dunk attempt:
Boston’s perimeter defense rotation-wise has been noticeably leaky sans Crowder, with Brown, Rozier and Gerald Green manning more minutes. This miscommunication between Brown and Bradley is probably on Brown:
Brown only played 13 minutes Wednesday night against the Wizards, as Stevens pulled him three minutes into the game after blowing this switch, dribbling right into a double team for a turnover (he doesn’t have a tight handle!) and pushing off for an offensive foul.
It’s not all bad defensively however, as in conjunction with his athleticism and strength (most notably defending LeBron) there are also athletic flashes on defense, i.e. the following clip where Brown rotates off tagging the roll man, closes out to Gallo and is able to change direction quickly walling off penetration even though Gallo makes the shot:
He also has the recovery speed and vertical explosiveness to stay with the play here even though he gives up the half-step, executing the recovery block:
Overall, the biggest thing with Brown thus far is from a physical standpoint he clearly belongs on an NBA floor, with his matchup with LeBron really showcasing that. The road to being an impact player is still long on both sides of the ball, but Brown looks like a gamer who doesn’t back down in big moments, and fits Boston’s mentally and physically tough culture. Developmentally, he’s already made strides defensively from Summer League to the regular season, a testament to the tutelage of some of the best perimeter defenders in basketball in Crowder, Bradley and Smart. I had and continue to have real concerns about the spacing Brown has to operate in Boston personnel wise, but paired with an ace coach like Stevens, I didn’t afford enough credit to his developmental situation. Brown personifies “an athletic ball of clay” to mold and his progress will be fascinating.
Jamal Murray’s rough transition
It’s admittedly been a rough go for Murray early in the year, as he notably shot 0-of-18 from the floor over his first four games. That obviously wasn’t sustainable as Murray is an excellent shooter, and his shots have started to fall at a respectable rate over the last three games, reminding us of his lightning quick release and solid preparatory footwork:
It also hasn’t been a seamless personnel fit, as Murray is a scorer surrounded by players hunting their own shots, including Mudiay. It’s pretty clear that Murray isn’t being looked for as much as he could be:
Nor has Murray been used yet in optimal fashion. Through seven catalogued games Murray has only finished three possessions shooting off screens, his ace skill. He’s mostly being parked in the corner or somewhere beyond the arc on the perimeter, mitigating his havoc-causing potential on floppy sets and running off pindowns. With his biggest strength areas either not being utilized or not being executed, Murray’s weaknesses have been even more apparent than usual.
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Murray’s defense has been predictably awful. Not possessing the athleticism or lateral agility to track opposing lead guards and far too undersized to match up with bigger scoring wings, Murray is a one position defender in the league, which diminishes his defensive value from the off. However, the early returns defending anyone, reserve or starter, have not been positive.
Murray noticeably gets blown by frequently in space:
He just doesn’t have that quick-twitch reactionary athleticism to wall off NBA athletes in space, both at a stand-still and on closeouts:
His off-ball defense has also been rough, as it is for most rookies. Here, Murray doubles down off Harrison, which was likely an intended scheme decision even one pass away, but gets lost assignment-wise after resulting in an easy Carter three:
Some of these clips are against athletic starting talent like Wiggins and LaVine, but there is really no excuse for Tyus Jones or Brandon Rush to blow by you in space. It’s just hard to foresee Murray not being a sizable negative defensively, especially against starting caliber players, and nothing early in the season has changed that.
Conversely on the opposite side of the floor, Murray has surprisingly been more impactful on-ball than off-ball. He has ball-skills playing in the pick-and-roll with his ability to use screens expertly:
This is great patience to set up the screen multiple times, creating the requisite amount of space to get his shot off.
Murray doesn’t have dynamic NBA burst, but his skill level and ability to finish around the basket with either hand helps compensate for that some (setting the screen out higher gives him more room to build up a head of steam as well):
Murray kills the slow-footed Boban in the following clip with an up and under move, again showcasing that skill level:
It’s unclear if Murray’s pick and roll ability and ability to create separation in that setting will translate against starting caliber players and athletes. On 13 finishing possessions this year Murray is only in the eighth percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, per NBA.com, likely a result of the two games he started. Here, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is quick enough to go around Murray’s body before Murray even has a chance to make his initial move, resulting in the steal:
Creating space without a screen was always going to be a difficult proposition given Murray’s lack of athleticism and lower release, but this was a notably impressive shot against Young:
Murray is a hard-shot-maker in that he can make off-balance midrange floaters and push shots, which might be the most underrated part of his game and should help him create some in tighter spaces.
His lower release also makes it easier for defenders to contest shots, and Murray is especially vulnerable to taller defenders with length who can erase his airspace:
He’s also shown passing flashes and is a capable playmaker, but most of his assists have come in transition:
Overall, I was lower on Murray than mostly everyone, so his translation thus far hasn’t been shocking outside of just how many open shots he’s missed, which will correct itself to a more respectable level. Murray is best utilized running off screens as part of a primary set in an offense to glean that schematic gravity of the defense, and swinging over to run some lead guard against backups. Right now he’s not a player who impacts a game if his shot isn’t falling, which is the danger with his player archetype.
Dragan Bender’s vs Marquese Chriss’ perimeter defense
With the Suns sputtering out of the gate, Phoenix shifted its eye to the future with rookie Marquese Chriss recently being inserted into the starting lineup by Earl Watson two games ago, an act that will apparently last the entire season. This also opens up minutes for fellow rookie Dragan Bender in the rotation.
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Bender has found a niche rotation spot for Phoenix as a backup five, a stark contrast to playing the three spot for the Suns in Summer League. Bender doesn’t have the developed frame to start at the five for at least a few years, if ever, but against reserves the physicality typically isn’t the same, and a front-court position is far more conducive to his skill-set than a wing spot.
What has always stood out about Bender is his outlier feet, as we see here with the ability to hard hedge and contain a dynamic lead guard athlete like Damian Lillard:
CJ McCollum doesn’t have the same burst as Lillard with the ball, but he’s still a very difficult contain assignment in space with his slipperiness:
And again in a more drop-back look:
Lillard blows by Bender here with a wicked hesitation move, but you can see the recovery speed ability and change of direction Bender has to stay near enough to Lillard for a desperation contest:
Many, including myself, considered Bender the best defensive big man in the draft, armed with two-level ability on that end and elite space defense at the point of attack. That sentiment is starting to trickle through with more playing time.
Offensively, Bender has flashed at the five spot where he carries a mobility and agility advantage against most fives in space:
This is a very fluid move for a 7-footer, and he shows good length extension at the end to finish.
Bender is only 4-of-11 on 3s this season, but his comfort level is starting to round into form in the pick-and-pop game:
He has a high, quick release that makes him hard for fours to contest and near impossible for fives giving the closeout range difference:
Changing gears, comparing Bender’s defense to Chriss’ at this juncture really illuminates the struggles of the latter. Chriss was a lost soul defending at Washington, basically showing no interior rotation awareness and poor technique defending on the perimeter. We have seen a lot of that poor technique already in the regular season:
He opens the gate too early against Aminu and makes a feeble strip attempt on the ball instead of challenging the shot vertically. He had a lot of experience defending on the perimeter in college in Washington’s switch everything scheme, but his IQ is still poor as we see here going under on McCollum on the switch:
Chriss shows good agility here staying in front of CJ, but inexplicably fouls him instead of contesting with verticality:
Chriss, similar to Brown, is a dynamic athlete who is a work in progress as a basketball player. He’s another test case of how much basketball instincts and intelligence can be developed over time, and why you shouldn’t give an overbearing amount of attention to Sports Center highlights.