Brock Osweiler is a $72 million mistake

The Houston Texans signed Brock Osweiler to a $72 million contract in March. The result? A disaster that is getting worse by the second.

Last Sunday, the Texans fell to the Chargers at NRG Stadium. San Diego was 4-6 coming in, while Houston was 6-5. The Chargers were still favored by two points, mostly because of the disparity at quarterback. For San Diego, Philip Rivers is one of the league’s finest. For Houston, Brock Osweiler has been an expensive disappointment.

Osweiler continued his horrid play, getting away with multiple poor decisions that resulted in incompletions instead of interceptions. Even so, he was victimized twice by the Chargers’ secondary, giving him a league-high 13 picks on the season.

Despite their middling record, the Texans continue to lead the AFC South by a half-game over the Tennessee Titans and a full game over the Indianapolis Colts, who both host Houston down the stretch. If Osweiler doesn’t play better, the Texans will find themselves watching the playoffs instead of participating in them.

Here are three plays that encapsulate the struggles of Osweiler both on Sunday, and all season long…

Play #1

The situation is 1st and 10 in the first quarter, with five minutes remaining in the period. The Texans and Chargers are scoreless. Houston comes out in “12” personnel with a back, two tight ends and a pair of receivers. San Diego is in its base 3-4 defense.

The Texans appear to be in a power running formation to the right side. San Diego’s coverage is man across the board, with a Cover 1 scheme. The Chargers are in off-man, with seven in the box.

Osweiler’s reads start from the deepest to the shortest. In other words, he’s looking at the deep safety and with Will Fuller (circled) going on a fly pattern, he’s betting on the safety to be drawn out of the area. This would leave DeAndre Hopkins in man-to-man with Casey Heyward, an excellent corner who leads the NFL in interceptions.

Then there is the third read, tight end Ryan Griffin. Griffin came all the way across the formation and is wide open. A good throw and it’s an easy completion and likely first down. However, Osweiler doesn’t get through his reads. He locks onto Hopkins, something that has been a problem all year.

This is the freezeframe on the throw. Osweiler is trying to fire this ball 25 yards in the air between the two converging defenders (corner peeled off Fuller to help underneath) to Hopkins. Fuller has been taken away by the deep safety, who turns and runs with him.

Again, Osweiler has a perfect pocket. He should have taken the extra split-second to survey and make the proper throw to Griffin. He never looks at the tight end, and the result is a near interception.

You can see how lucky Osweiler was to not be intercepted. This drive ended in a punt.

Play #2

On this play, Houston is trailing 14-7 early in the third quarter. It’s 1st and 10 on the 50-yard line, and the Texans come out in “11” personnel with a running back, tight end and three receivers. San Diego is in man coverage with nickel personnel.

From the outset, Osweiler should know that his matchup on the left side is easy money. DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best receivers in football, is running a quick slant. With Casey Heyward playing off-man, this is pitch-and-catch. Hopkins should have at least 5-6 yards here, and maybe much more with a broken tackle.

Hopkins gets a clean release off the line and has the inside track. While Heyward is closing, the Texans’ offensive line has given Osweiler a perfect lane to throw through, and the quarterback has one read. This needs to be out on the third step, which he has hit. Instead, there is a delay in the throw.

This is the release point. Look at Hopkins. He’s now at the 46-yard line where the ball should have been placed. Had Osweiler thrown on time, this is a nice way to get some easy yardage on first down. Instead, Osweiler waited too long, giving Heyward time to cut down the angle and get a better read on the play.

While it’s hard to see above, Osweiler’s throw ends up being late, low and outside. He was forced to lead Hopkins because the coverage was closing from Heyward, something that could have been avoided by decent timing. This series ends up in a punt only three plays later.

Play #3

Once more, we see the same personnel groups out of both teams. Houston is trailing 21-10 early in the fourth quarter, facing 1st and 10. San Diego is dropping into a classic Cover 2 look. The holes of this defense are down the boundaries and in the middle if the MIKE linebacker drops too far.

Osweiler is at the top of his drop. He has five receivers in the pattern, including running back Lamar Miller leaking into the flat as a safety valve. Down the field, DeAndre Hopkins is an easy reception, albeit a short one.

Now, we get to the main options. On the right side, Braxton Miller is breaking wide open as Heyward passes him off to the next level. Miller is the right choice here. However, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz is breaking into the left seam above linebacker Denzel Perryman but below the safety. If Osweiler makes this throw, it has to be perfect.

That circle? That’s the football, sailing over Fiedorowicz’s head. Osweiler’s throw is well too long, along with being a few yards behind the intended target. This is the easiest interception of Dwight Lowery’s career, and his first this season.

Now look at the three arrows. These are the open options, including Miller who would have been good for a 20-yard gain or more. Houston can’t endure these kinds of mistakes and still make the playoffs. Even Hopkins or Miller, who are low-yardage targets here, are much better choices. Throwing into the window Osweiler attempted is tough for a great quarterback and reckless for a mediocre one.