Heisman Trophy 2016: Predicting each candidate’s NFL future
By John Buhler
The 2016 Heisman Trophy has five outstanding and well-deserving finalists. Which of these five have bright NFL futures and who might struggle on Sundays?
On ESPN’s Monday Night Countdown, former Heisman Trophy winners at the University of Michigan Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson announced who the five finalists were for the 2016 Heisman Trophy.
The five finalists were Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson, Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield, Michigan Wolverines linebacker/safety Jabrill Peppers, Clemson Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson and Oklahoma wide receiver Dede Westbrook.
All five finalists have electrified in Power 5 college football this season, and it should be noted that Jackson and Mayfield will definitely be back in college football in 2017. Peppers, Watson and Westbrook are going pro after this season.
So, with NFL futures in mind, what are the draft prospects for all five Heisman finalists?
Jackson had an unbelievable sophomore season for Louisville, and he has been the front-runner for the 2016 Heisman Trophy since Week 2’s throttling of the Syracuse Orange in the Carrier Dome.
With 3,390 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year, Jackson would be a Heisman finalist on his arm alone. As a runner, he transcended into the presumed favorite to win the 2016 Heisman Trophy: 234 carries for 1,538 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns.
Jackson is only a true sophomore, so he will return to Louisville for the 2017 college football season. Should he leave school after his junior year, what would Jackson’s draft prospects look like entering the 2018 NFL Draft?
Jackson has shown that he is a fast learner as well as being a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Bobby Petrino’s offensive system. Keep in mind that Jackson didn’t run plays when he was quarterbacking in high school, going all ad-lib before coming to Louisville. He did not own a playbook until he enrolled at the University of Louisville last year.
Jackson seems to have full command of Petrino’s spread offensive attack. He can get better pre-snap, but this variation of a spread isn’t a crippling indictment of Jackson’s pro prospects. Keep in mind that Petrino was briefly in the NFL to coach the 2007 Atlanta Falcons to coach Jackson’s NFL prototype in Michael Vick. Vick going to prison for a few years and the pressure to take the Arkansas Razorbacks job made it a quick tenure in Flowery Branch for Petrino.
The pros to Jackson’s game as an NFL prospect are obvious. He has a cannon for a right arm, has good touch on his deep balls, seems to have the mental toughness to succeed at quarterback, is willing to put in the time in the film room and –above all– his legs.
What hurts Jackson as a pro-style quarterback is significant. He is slender of build at 6’3″ and 205 pounds. Jackson can’t complete 60 percent of his passes in college (a MAJOR red flag) and he lacks the necessary touch in the short-to-medium passing game. Is he really ever going to be able to go through a multi-read progression in the pocket before bolting out of there when his first target is covered?
In short, Jackson has plenty of room to grow as an NFL prospect in 2017, and he and Petrino seem to be very aware of this. Jackson is also humble and hard-working. How he evolves in 2017 will decide if he is a first-round talent or a quarterback going in the second-to-fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
Ceiling: Michael Vick
Median: Robert Griffin, III
Floor: Johnny Manziel
2018 NFL Draft prospects: Late second round to mid-third round.