Prospect Calibration: Denzel Valentine lives

For many rookies, breaking into the rotation in any kind of consistent role is an uphill battle, even for those polished upperclassmen coming out of the draft. Denzel Valentine was of that polished ilk, a four-year senior under the tutelage of one of the best teachers college basketball has to offer at Michigan State.

Valentine was a near triple-double machine his senior year, and sported the highest NCAA Offensive Box Score Plus-Minus mark since the inception of the stat. An all-around shooting and passing maven armed with elite basketball intelligence, Valentine looked to be a tailor-made fit in a motion-type system that Chicago’s Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg planned to employ, rendering Chicago one of his best outcome team fits. When the Bulls selected Valentine No. 14 in the draft, he really looked like a hand-in-glove fit, especially next to franchise player and two-way dynamo, Jimmy Butler. Then unfortunately, things took a turn for the worst.

The Bulls signed two on-ball non-shooting veterans in Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo in free agency, and instead of building around Butler as an initiator, where spacing was imperative, they started the season with the worst shooting projection of any team in basketball. Compounding the overall lack of fit was Wade relegating Valentine to a diminished role, even though Valentine fits long-term next to Butler in superior fashion. The Bulls’ decisions looked rudderless at the time, trying to hedge between past and future, and expectedly flailing.

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Valentine went on to injure his ankle in training camp, leaving him out of the rotation to start the season. Just when he finally started to gain some traction recently, he tweaked his ankle again in the January 2 game against the Charlotte Hornets after knocking down 3 of 5 3-pointers in 18 minutes. This time he only missed 3 games. Valentine returned to the lineup against the Washington Wizards, and due to a flu epidemic keeping Butler sidelined, Valentine saw a season-high 30 minutes, and capitalized with a career-high 19 points nailing 5 of 11 3-pointers. Things were finally on the upswing for him, and naturally, he similarly acquired the flu, forcing him to miss Thursday night’s game against the New York Knicks and derailing that momentum. It’s been that kind of frustrating season. Fortunately, there is still reason for optimism when it comes to Valentine’s future.

Valentine started the season 11 of 42 on 3-pointers before hitting 8 of his last 16, and he was simply too good of a shooting prospect not to progress to the mean. Valentine was a dynamite shooter his last two seasons at Michigan State, presenting a rare combination of elite off-the-catch and off-the-dribble shooting. Valentine registered a 1.096 points per possession mark shooting off the dribble in the half-court his senior season, higher than Buddy Hield and significantly higher than Jamal Murray, per Synergy. Valentine also sported a 1.366 points per possession mark on half-court catch-and-shoot attempts his final year, again higher than Murray and just behind Hield. We’re talking elite level shooting, and it’s rare to have that dual-threat ability at such a high level. C.J. McCollum is one of the best secondary handlers in the game because of this duality.

Valentine prefers the 1-2 in terms of preparatory footwork shooting off the catch, and his release is quick enough to set his feet and get his shot off in a limited amount of time, as in the following case operating up against shot clock.

He’s shooting at just a measly .74 points per possession clip on spot-up finishing possessions this year, in the 12th percentile, per Synergy. Again, that figure is going to improve.

Valentine adds in the ability to make a more impactful shot, shooting on the move running off screens. Eventually, with a more legitimate sample of shooting prowess, he should be a gravitational force on the floor, garnering attention and freeing up driving lanes for players like Butler to maneuver to the rim. Actions like this weak-side flare screen to get Valentine relocating to the corner should become staples in Hoiberg’s offense over time.

Valentine is also a scheme-changing off-the-dribble shooter in pick-and-rolls, which is crucial on secondary pick-and-roll actions and at the point of attack if Valentine kicks over to run backup lead guard. You can’t go under the screen on Valentine (conceptually), which opens up a myriad of opportunities not available to non-shooters. The big defending the screener also has to get out on Valentine, with Valentine’s defender likely chasing over to close Valentine’s airspace. Here, Markieff Morris sags off on a soft-hedge, and Kelly Oubre can’t recover in time to contest Valentine’s walk-in 3.

In the following clip, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist just goes under the screen on the dribble hand-off action, and Valentine makes him pay.

And again.

These off the dribble shots in pick-and-roll and out of dribble hand-off actions are going to be crucial for Valentine, because he’s not going to get to the rim consistently, finish efficiently when he does, or draw fouls. Valentine is just 9 for 28 on two-point attempts this season, and has only been to the line eight times in 282 minutes. He’s a perimeter player only, lacking the requisite speed, burst and vertical pop to finish over the trees inside, thus, he needs to be efficient 10 feet and out. Shots like the following pull-up out of an early drag-screen action where Valentine gets the head of steam necessary to separate with his lack of burst are going to be paramount.

Similarly, unorthodox flip shots like in the following clip, which Valentine showcased consistently at Michigan State in lieu of getting all the way to the basket, are also going to have to drop at a respectable rate to compensate for lack of high percentage shots at the rim and at the foul line.

What we haven’t seen a lot of this year in Valentine’s largely off-ball role is his playmaking in pick-and-roll situations. He only has 20 finishing possessions as the pick-and-roll ball-handler this season, and additionally his passing out of these actions hasn’t been put on full display.

The real value of Valentine is that he brings lead guard vision to a secondary handler role, which is a true rarity. Valentine essentially played the point for Michigan State, and can makes all the reads in pick-and-role, possessing outlier wizard vision. He doesn’t have the functional athleticism to utilize his vision to the extent that better athletes do, instead relying on screens to get the necessary separation and angles. But as a secondary player he can add legitimate playmaking for others.

Here, he comes off stagger-screens, gaining the requisite half-step advantage on Bradley Beal, and fires a cross-court skip to the corner to Bobby Portis for the 3.

There have been numerous instances of highly intelligent reads by Valentine occurring without the reward of an assist this year, and that is life when you are playing on the worst 3-point shooting team in the league.

The underlying idea of Valentine is that his skill level and outlier intelligence will help compensate for the athleticism deficiencies. He’s legit slow on the court both in terms of general speed and change of direction reactionary ability, and he has to rely on the mental game to give him a positioning edge.

You see rare high IQ intricacies to the play of Valentine, such as the following clip where he has the instincts and understanding when the shot goes up to go across the key and box out an uncovered Marcin Gortat.

He ends up fouling here, and this play may not seem significant, but how many rookies have the awareness to do that? Yes, he’s 23, but how many young wings or guards overall do that? He just understands the game at a higher level than most.

Valentine’s intelligence can’t cover up everything however. He’s usually cooked in space when he has big spaces to wall off, and running him off floppy sets with athletic shooters seems like an easy way to guarantee either an open shot or a favorable switch by design. He fights on switches in the post and has a decent frame, but he is prone to getting dislodged and really isn’t adept on closeouts changing direction north-south. You try to keep him out of situations like this where even Jeremy Lamb without basically any shake can get around him in space.

Valentine is very adept on rotations and knows where to be in the team construct of defense, but he has never generated steals or been a big disruptor creating events off ball playing the passing lanes. He can eek out average defensive play potential by knowing where to be and not messing up, but that’s likely his ceiling.

Overall, Valentine based on results has been poor this year, but I think that’s mostly attributed to the fact he just hasn’t made shots.  If he actually can’t make shots from the perimeter consistently over a bigger sample his value is significantly diminished. But I’m betting on a reversal here. He’s just too good of a shooter to continue this way, and he’s already started an upswing of late. You rarely find shooting prospects like Valentine who can bring lead guard vision to an off-ball role.

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He’s an ideal secondary handler next to a two-way wing initiator archetype like Jimmy Butler, where Butler is almost always being checked by the opposition’s best (and typically most athletic) perimeter defender and likewise Butler is checking the most elite/most athletic wing on the other end. Valentine can usually be hid on defense as a one-positional guy and provide dual playmaking on offense playing off Butler. The Bulls would get even more utility kicking Valentine over to backup lead guard to fully unleash his playmaking when reserve matchups dictate.

Many have likely already written Valentine off as an old prospect whose lack of athleticism was unsalvageable on the NBA level. It’s been a rough go with situation and injury. Don’t be that person just yet.