What would getting Khris Middleton back do for the Milwaukee Bucks?
By Jeff Siegel
Reports surfaced this week that the Milwaukee Bucks may have Khris Middleton back as early as their three-game homestand before the All-Star Break. Middleton tore his left hamstring in preseason workouts in September and it was reported at the time that he tore it completely off the bone, something that several NBA officials said they couldn’t recall having seen before. The initial prognosis was six months for Middleton, but if he does come back in mid-February, it will have been less than five months, a remarkable recovery for such a terrible injury.
Middleton will be on a significant minutes restriction while he eases back into the game, but getting him back so early in the season is a big win for a Bucks team that has captured the hearts and minds of the NBA public. Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at an MVP level, Jabari Parker has improved tremendously on the offensive end (though his defense is still suspect at best), and Malcolm Brogdon looks to be the steal of 2016 Draft as the first half of his rookie campaign has gone about as well as the Bucks could have possibly hoped.
Milwaukee finds themselves on the outside looking in on the playoff picture, but things are so close in the East that they could easily go on a run and win home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs; the Atlanta Hawks are only 3.5 games ahead of them for the fourth seed. Middleton’s return, no matter how many minutes he can give them, will aid in their quest for a playoff berth.
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In three seasons with the Bucks, Middleton has proven himself to be one of the best 3-and-D wings in the league. A career 40-percent 3-point shooter and lockdown perimeter defender, Middleton was widely regarded as the Bucks’ best player coming into the 2016-17 season. Before tearing his hamstring, SI.com’s NBA minds ranked him as the 39th-best player in the league, nine spots ahead of Antetokounmpo. Of course, nobody’s debating who’s better between these two now, but it does show that Middleton was expected to be a big part of this team.
Offensively, Middleton will bring much needed spacing and shooting around Antetokounmpo and Parker. Tony Snell, whom the Bucks acquired in the wake of Middleton’s injury, has been solid in his absence, hitting 36 percent of his 3s on the highest volume (per 36 minutes) of his career. However, it’s further down the rotation where Middleton’s return will have its biggest effect — 32-percent three-point shooter Matthew Dellavedova and 39-year-old Jason Terry are playing more than 44 minutes per game combined, Rashad Vaughn has mostly fallen out of the rotation, and Michael Beasley is, well, Michael Beasley. Middleton’s return will mean that there are fewer minutes doled out to these guys, which should help the Bucks massively on both ends.
Defensively, Middleton is yet another tall, lanky defender who can switch onto almost anybody. He’s finished second and 13th among shooting guards in ESPN’s Defensive RPM the last two seasons, ranking ahead of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Nicolas Batum, and Klay Thompson last season. He was an absolutely lockdown isolation defender in 2014-15, giving up just 0.596 points per possession in isolation, which doesn’t even take into account the countless possessions where Middleton stonewalled his guy and made him pass it out for a late shot-clock contested jumper. The hamstring injury will surely have zapped some of his lateral quickness, but getting him back on the court in mid-February should help him be ready by playoff time.
The Bucks are poised to make a run with Middleton back in the lineup and the stellar play of Antetokounmpo and Parker leading them to the playoffs. In a potential playoff series, Middleton’s improvement to head coach Jason Kidd’s rotation will be even more pronounced; Milwaukee will be able to eschew any minutes for Terry and Beasley as they tighten up their wing rotation. They’re not scaring anybody from ninth in the Eastern Conference and with a sub-.500 record, but the reinstallation of their second-best player will almost certainly vault them over the top into a solid playoff berth and perhaps even the franchise’s first playoff series victory in 16 years.