Giving Andre Drummond the hook, and other Pistons thoughts
By Ian Levy
The Pistons are in a bad way. They lost by 22 to the Bulls last night. A chart of their rolling five-game average for point differential looks like a massive boulder rolling down hill after Indiana Jones. Detroit is currently out of the playoffs by a game-and-a-half, and even with Chicago who holds the tie-breaker over them (in part, thanks to last night’s drubbing).
Watching the Detroit defense melt like so much margarine before the majestic heat of Nikola Mirotic, Paul Zipser and Joffrey Lauvergne (combined for 60 points on 25-of-37 shooting), one can’t help but feel that this collection of basketball players has kind of run it’s course. Nothing here is really working the way it’s supposed to. Unless you count Beno Udrih (I don’t), the Pistons have just two players shooting better than 35 percent on 3-pointers. The whole “space-the-floor around Andre Drummond pick-and-rolls” doesn’t work so well with Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris hurling cinder blocks from beyond the arc like some austere, nihilist strongest-man competition.
Oh, and Drummond in the pick-and-roll. He’s finished more than twice as many possessions on post-ups (297) as he has as the screener in the pick-and-roll (135). Those numbers aren’t a perfect reflection of reality — sometimes Detroit ball-handlers are forcing shots out of the pick-and-roll knowing that letting Drummond get the ball off the offensive glass might be easier than a pocket pass. Still it’s an u-g-l-y ratio.
Drummond’s go-to move in the post is still the jump hook. He’s set to lead the league in hook shot attempts this year, for the second season in a row. He’s shooting 40.5 percent on hook shots and only Greg Monroe has been less accurate among players with at least 50 attempts. To put it another way, he’s missed more hook shots than anyone in the league outside of Hassan Whiteside has attempted. To put it an even more depressing way, the basic expected value of a Drummond hook shot this season (0.81 points per attempt) is basically the same as him going to the line to attempt two free throws (0.80 points per pair of free throw attempts).
Drummond is a ferocious rebounder but his offensive impact his basically declined over the years as he’s become more involved in their offense without much accompanying skill development. The needle hasn’t moved much on his defensive impact either — honestly where would you place Drummond among the best defensive centers in the league?
He’s looked less and less like a centerpiece and there’s nothing else on this roster that fits that bill either. Move Drummond, start from scratch, and the needle starts spinning on the relative importance of pretty much every other player on the team. Keep Kentavious Caldwell-Pope if you can, he’s a good defender who has value as a second banana on offense. But who’s the first banana? Keep Stanley Johnson and Henry Ellenson because #youth is a thing?
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Honestly, I’m not sure what to think about the Detroit Pistons. I wish they worked. That playoff series against the Cavaliers was fun last year. Seeing how they recapture that “magic” is kind of hazy right now. Don’t worry though, we don’t have to burn any more brain cells on this. Let’s go watch some Paul Zipser highlights.