Tampa Bay Rays: 2017 MLB season preview
Can the Tampa Bay Rays end their playoff drought in 2017?
From 2008 to 2011, few teams were more successful than the Tampa Bay Rays. They made the postseason each year and even appeared in a World Series. However, Jose Lobaton’s walk-off home run in the 2013 ALDS is Tampa’s most recent moment of glory. Since then, the Rays have finished fourth in the AL East twice and are coming off a last place finish in 2016. Their 94 losses in 2016 are their most since 2007, when they lost 96 games.
The Rays had a busy offseason, especially considering they’re usually quiet during the winter. Their biggest move was trading second baseman Logan Forsythe to the Los Angeles Dodgers. In exchange, Tampa Bay got pitching prospect Jose De Leon, who should be able to contribute in the rotation sometime in the future, perhaps even this season. They also traded starting pitcher Drew Smyly to the Seattle Mariners for outfield Mallex Smith. He should provide the Rays with more outfield depth and will likely serve as their fourth outfielder.
Most of Tampa’s moves were made in free agency. Last season, Tampa’s catchers were abysmally bad. Bobby Wilson was the only one with a batting average of over .230. 63 percent of their plate appearances from backstops were from someone hitting below .200. The Rays addressed this by signing free agent catcher Wilson Ramos. He provides a significant upgrade over what they had in 2016 if he bounces back from a terrible injury.
They also signed free agent outfielder Colby Rasmus. He’s projected to be a starting outfielder for the Rays, pushing Corey Dickerson to the DH. Free agent acquisition Shawn Tolleson is coming off the worst season of his career with a 7.68 ERA in 19 appearances. However, considering he had an ERA of below 3.00 in his two previous seasons, Tolleson could wind up being a huge bargain.
Pitching
The Tampa Bay Rays backbone in 2017 will be their starting rotation. Their starting pitchers are without question the strength of the team. One can’t completely rule out Tampa Bay from the playoffs thanks to the strength of their rotation.
Chris Archer is their staff ace. Ignore his 19 losses from last season. This is more indicative of Tampa’s offense and his terrible luck than his ability. Archer finished 2016 with 4.02 ERA while pitching over 200 innings for the second consecutive season. His FIP of 3.81 was tied for 25th among starting pitchers in 2016. Archer is at the center of trade rumors, but if he sticks around, expect a strong rebound season from the ace.
Jake Odorizzi took a step back from his 2015 season, but still had a very solid season in 2016. For the second consecutive season, he finished with a sub 3.75 ERA. However, Odorizzi’s 1.40 HR/9 ratio ranked 12th among starting pitchers. Also, his FIP rose from 3.61 to a career high 4.31. Odorizzi must keep the ball in the park.
Blake Snell, a 23 year old southpaw, could have a breakout season in 2017. He looked impressive in 19 starts last year. Snell’s 3.39 FIP ranked 18th among starting pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Alex Cobb is a wild card, as he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. If he can get back to what he was in 2014, the Rays could have a second ace. Matt Andriese and Jose De Leon will likely each spend time filling the fifth starter role. However, considering two of their starters were nearly traded this offseason, their rotation could involve a lot of moving parts.
Lineup
The Tampa Bay Rays will be bringing back three of their four hitters last season who hit at least 20 home runs. With additional playing time, Steven Souza (17 home runs) could reach the plateau in 2017. Free-agent acquisition Wilson Ramos hit 22 home runs in 2016 while Colby Rasmus hit 15. For better or for worse, the Rays will likely continue to rely on the long ball.
Last season, Tampa Bay hit 216 home runs but finished in the bottom 10 in runs. They also had a strikeout rate of 24.5 percent. Only the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers struck out more often.
Evan Longoria is coming off a 36 home-run season. He’ll be the heart and soul of the Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup. Longoria will remain one of the top fantasy baseball third basemen, as he’s a lock to get 30 home runs and should push 100 RBI. Brad Miller is coming off a 30 home run season. Making the transition over to second base, he could be one of the top fantasy producers at second base.
Matt Duffy is making the transition from third base to shortstop. He’ll be getting a starting job for the first time in his career. Logan Morrison is back and will play first base. Ramos should add a lot to Tampa Bay’s lineup, as he’s one of their few hitters who know how to work the count and get on base. Corey Dickerson is a three outcome hitter (strikeout, walk, or homer). The problem is the second outcome doesn’t happen too often. Kevin Kiermaier is the closest thing the Rays have to a leadoff hitter and he’s a good one.
They will definitely hit their fair share of homers. But if they don’t improve their plate patience, it won’t matter too much.
Bullpen
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen could be decent in 2017. First of all, it’s likely they won’t be worked too hard, especially if Archer and Odorizzi remain locks to get through six innings and Cobb bounces back strong. Secondly, the back end of their bullpen could be one of the most underrated in baseball.
Alex Colome earned the closer job last year and he has flourished in it. He got a save in 37 of the Rays’ 68 wins last season. Colome’s 1.92 ERA ranked among the best relief pitchers. His 11.28 strikeouts per nine innings put him in the top 20 among relievers. It remains to be seen who will be the eighth inning bridge to Colome. Danny Farquhar (3.06 ERA) is the most likely candidate, but he’s proven to be inconsistent throughout his career. But if he can repeat his success from last season, the Tampa Bay Rays won’t have to worry about the late innings.
Getting there, however, could be difficult.
After Farquhar and Colome, their bullpen is a revolving door of mediocrity. Erasmo Ramirez could be due for some regression, as he doesn’t strike guys out, he walks quite a few people (2.6 per nine innings), nor does he have a high ground ball rate. Shawn Tolleson could be a diamond in the rough, but he could also be terrible like he was last season. Luckily, Tampa Bay’s only paying him $1 million. Brad Boxberger struggled last year, but was an All-Star closer in 2015.
Xavier Cedeno is the only other Rays reliever who moves the needle. He strikes out just over a batter every inning and doesn’t allow many fly balls. The Rays need their rotation to limit the innings the bullpen pitches.
Manager
Kevin Cash has done a decent job replacing Joe Maddon. However, he must help the team take another step forward in 2017. Cash doesn’t have the talent Maddon did, mostly because of the departure of Andrew Friedman. It’s hard to fairly judge him because he hasn’t had too much to work with.
Last season, the Rays didn’t have much go their way. Cash’s job security is likely good. After all, he kept a 2015 team that shouldn’t have been competitive in the playoff hunt for much longer than people expected. But if Cash gets credit for 2015, it’s only fair to question him for 2016.
However, how much blame can he be given? Is it his fault his hitters have very little plate patience? No matter how much Cash would love to influence his relievers, he can’t make them get outs. It is a tad bit concerning he’s having trouble managing his bullpen and pitchers considering his background as a catcher.
Still, Cash’s job is likely safe. The Rays aren’t underachieving and it’s not like having a new manager would be beneficial for the team. Cash has the confidence of the front office. He might not be in the upper echelon of managers, but he’s solid at worst.
X-Factor
One player could turn the Tampa Bay Rays from pretenders into contenders. That player? Alex Cobb. Coming off Tommy John Surgery in 2015, he didn’t do well in five starts in 2016. However, with another full offseason to prepare, he should be back to normal in 2017.
Perhaps no player has been as unlucky as Cobb. The Tommy John surgery wasn’t even the worst injury he’s ever had. Back in 2013, Cobb got struck in the face by a line drive. Maybe his run of terrible luck has finally ended.
Hopefully for the Tampa Bay Rays, it has. Because Cobb has shown he can be an extremely good pitcher. In his last two full seasons, his ERA has been below 3.00. However, Cobb has never appeared in more than 30 games. His career high is 27, back in 2014.
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The AL East doesn’t have outstanding starting pitching. Cobb could be a huge difference maker for the Rays if he can stay on the field. He potentially gives them two top tier starters, which would significantly help stabilize the rotation and the bullpen. Tampa Bay is relying on Cobb to be great because he has the chance to make them a playoff contender. The Rays have a very slim chance to make the postseason. Most of their hopes fall on Cobb.
Prediction
Expect another rebuilding season for the Tampa Bay Rays. Their starting pitching is likely good enough to at least keep things interesting. Especially if Cobb returns to his pre-Tommy John surgery form and can keep his missed starts to a minimum. However, the Rays’ bullpen is a liability. They don’t have much depth to help out their rotation, which puts a ton of pressure of their starting pitchers. Time will tell if the pressure is a good thing or a bad thing.
The Rays need to compete with the high octane offenses of the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Baltimore Orioles. Their lineup is inferior to all of them and it’s not even close. Teams can pitch around Evan Longoria. As long as they can, the Rays won’t have the lineup they need to be a serious contender.
Tampa Bay’s infield is a work in progress. Only two of their four starters (Longoria and Morrison) will be playing at their natural positions. Usually, the Rays are known for their excellent defense. Longoria and Kiermaier carry on the proud tradition, but when your shortstop should be a third baseman, that’s never a good thing.
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Record prediction: 75-87. The Rays’ rotation is definitely good enough to contend. They arguably have three of the top 10 starting pitchers in the AL East. However, their lineup and bullpen will be their Achilles’ heel.