Kyle Schwarber leading off the next big revolution?

Kyle Schwarber does not look like a prototypical leadoff hitter, but if he succeeds, will more managers let their biggest hitters bat first?

The Chicago Cubs opened the 2017 MLB season against the St. Louis Cardinals. In the home dugout of Busch Stadium, Dexter Fowler, who led off for the Cubs the past two seasons, made his debut in red and white.

Replacing him atop the lineup for the defending World Series champions (still feels weird seeing those words used to describe the Cubs, huh?) was a burly six-foot, 235-pound behemoth of a man who goes by the name Kyle Schwarber.

Fowler and Schwarber’s games are so diametrically opposed that it is worth asking the question — is the traditional leadoff man going the way of the dinosaur? Sure, there are a few holdovers around the league from a different era. Jean Segura will leadoff for the Seattle Mariners. He stole 33 bags last season. Dee Gordon will hit first for Miami, and has all of nine career big-league home runs.

Around the league, however, these speed-contact hitters are becoming increasingly rare atop a lineup. In Houston, the Astros fastest player, Jose Altuve, will hit in the heart of the order, while George Springer leads off. Last year’s American League champions, the Cleveland Indians, batted a former catcher, Carlos Santana first most of the season. He could hardly be described as a burner, and has only 35 stolen bases in his career.

Baseball is going through a massive change in how the first slot in the batting order is viewed. Maximizing plate appearances for your most valuable hitters, rather than the one hitter who is the fastest, is en vogue. The stolen base is yesterday’s news.

Here’s Houston manager A.J. Hinch, one of the smartest men in baseball, giving his thought on the leadoff hitter.

"“Some of the stereotypes that come with ‘Is the leadoff hitter a small, scrappy, on-base machine?’ versus me sending up a 6-foot-3, 225-pound George Springer, it might look different,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch says. “But what we’re after is scoring the most runs and putting your most dangerous hitters to get the most at-bats is an effective way to do that.”"

It is no longer simply good enough for a leadoff hitter to get on base, dance around, and occasionally take off for second. The best teams all employ a leadoff hitter who is capable of producing instant offense. Sacrificing power in the name of speed is no longer seen as a smart move.

Furthermore, the higher a player moves in the order, the more often he will get to hit. Each jump up the lineup card offers a hitter close to 50 more trips to the plate over a 162-game schedule. Why wouldn’t a manager like Buck Showalter want to give one of his best players, Adam Jones those at-bats?

Lineups should not be rigid or unchanging, and the best managers realize that. A batting order is a living, breathing thing that has to be cultivated and tended to as new information becomes available. Fowler was so valuable to the Cubs the past two seasons not only because he could reach base and take off for second on the right pitch. Rather, he was more valuable because he provided power in addition to his on-base skills. It is no coincidence that ten teams in baseball last year got an OPS better than .800 out of their leadoff men.

There will not be many more David Ecksteins topping lineups around Major League Baseball over the coming years. There will always be a place for a solid defensive shortstop like Eckstein, but no one with an OPS+ of 87 for their career will be leading off close to 1,000 times in their career. The game has changed.

The “small, active fellow who can hit, run and steal bases” as described in pre-1900 baseball writing, will not be receiving the lion’s share of at-bats for his team going forward. Schwarber, with his muscles on muscles and broad chest, could not look more unlike the leadoff man of yesterday.

If you were to go into a lab and concoct the perfect leadoff hitter, what you would eventually come up with would look something like Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson. He hit 297 home runs, drove in over 1,100 runs, drew nearly 2,200 walks, and stole 1,406 bases over a 25-year career. Hands down, Henderson is exactly what a manager would like to have from his leadoff hitter, but there’s a better chance of finding a leprechaun riding a unicorn in the middle of Central Park before the next Rickey Henderson comes along.

Getting back to Schwarber — is he the prototypical leadoff man of the future? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Should a manager be willing to accept the strikeouts that are certain to follow a hitter that shares his offensive profile? Strikeouts have become widely accepted as just another out, but sometimes a situation does call for a hitter who can put the ball in play and move runners up for the heart of the order.

There will be frustrating at-bats with Schwarber leading off, but the good (walks, doubles, and home runs) will far outweigh the bad. Schwarber is viewed as a can’t-miss prospect thanks to his postseason heroics the past two years, but he has played only 71 regular-season games, slashing .242/.353/.479 with 79 strikeouts.

OPS has become the most important statistic for MLB hitters. Being on base, regardless of how you got it done, is valuable. Hitting for extra bases is more valuable than hitting singles. Logically, this makes sense. Forward-thinking managers have realized this far earlier than 2017, but the rest of the league is now coming around.

When you get down to it, each manager must determine the best way to maximize his team’s talents. In Miami, Don Mattingly would probably not want to consider hitting Giancarlo Stanton leadoff, so as to avoid having him hit too many home runs with the bases empty. In Chicago, with a loaded lineup, Joe Maddon does not have to worry about wasting too many Schwarber home runs.

For starters, Maddon has embraced the practice of hitting his pitcher eighth, increasing the number of times Schwarber will hit with traffic on the bases. With Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo behind him, the Cubs are not so dependent on Schwarber to drive in their runs. Their runs will come in bunches this season.

Maddon gets it. The Cubs are a very deep team, and they present matchup nightmares up and down their lineup.

"“None of it’s attractive,” Maddon said. “There’s pause involved there, because if you don’t want to pitch to him, then the guys coming up behind are really pretty interesting. It’s formidable, so it’s uncomfortable from the other side.”"

Because the Cubs are in fact so loaded on offense, they may not be the ideal test kitchen for this new-look leadoff hitter. Their success is not totally dependent on Schwarber’s offensive output. A team like the Baltimore Orioles, where Manny Machado batted leadoff for most of 2015, is a better test case. Machado has slotted back down into the three-hole, and Adam Jones could hit first again this year.

With his career .318 on-base percentage and proclivity for swinging at any pitch within a foot of the plate, Jones is far from a traditional leadoff hitter, but he excelled in the role last year, batting .282/.320/.471 with 24 home runs from the top of the order.

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Sports are at their best when traditional roles are shrugged off. In the NBA, the seven-foot, three-point shooter has redefined the way the painted area is treated. There is no more tossing the ball into one player while everyone else stands around and watches him back down his man.

The best teams space the floor, run, and shoot. NFL teams have mostly abandoned the run, or at least the idea that one player should carry the ball 40 times per game. Baseball, too, is coming around, accepting new philosophies and roles for players. The teams that come out on top will be the teams that adjust and embrace change the fastest.