Predicting the USMNT’s starting lineup against Mexico

Looking at the USMNT’s lineup options for their match against Mexico on Sunday.

The U.S. Men’s National Team have some breathing room in World Cup Qualifying, finally, after they moved themselves back into third place in the Hexagonal standings with a relatively convincing 2-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago at home on Thursday.

After the final two matches of Jurgen Klinsmann’s tenure set the U.S. back in November, wins over Honduras and T&T, and a road draw in Panama in March, have eased the pressure on Bruce Arena’s side. 

On Sunday, they’ll play by far the toughest game of the schedule, a road match at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico. Altitude, raucous fans and plenty of other factors make games at the famed Azteca incredibly tough to gain results from, which is why the U.S. have never won there in a competitive game. A draw there is as good as a win is elsewhere.

Thanks to Thursday’s win, they can afford to walk out with a loss; in fact, that’s the most likely result. Still, this should be a competitive match, with the U.S. seeking revenge for their loss to El Tri back in November. 

There’s certainly plenty of pride at stake for the U.S. players, who will want revenge over their bitter rivals, and, obviously, a result would go a long way toward securing an automatic berth in Russia next summer.

Arena has some decisions to make, considering that there are just 72 hours between games, and El Tri are a very different opponent than Trinidad and Tobago. Here’s what to look for from the US in terms of lineups and personnel:

Forwards

Arena chose Clint Dempsey and Jozy Altidore as the starters up top against T&T in the U.S.’s hybrid 4-4-2. Dempsey, just a goal away from Landon Donovan’s all-time USMNT scoring record, was removed after 60 minutes (much to his dismay), which probably signals a desire from Arena to start him against Mexico.

From there, the decision comes down to Altidore and Bobby Wood, two different players who add very different qualities. Altidore is a rugged No. 9 who likes to bully defenders and play through into the space in behind to a runner like Christian Pulisic. He’s a set-piece threat and would be a better matchup against Mexico center-back Rafa Marquez than the smaller Wood.

Wood is three inches shorter than Altidore and doesn’t hold the ball up as well, but is faster, trickier with his movement and is more of a threat on the counter. The Hamburg striker will stretch the field, run into every channel, and force defenders to run with him, which opens space in front of the opposing backline to allow Pulisic and Dempsey more room to work. The U.S. clogged that space too often against Trinidad and Tobago, and Wood would help solve that problem.

Given the U.S. will probably sit back more and rely on creating chances from transitions, Wood is probably the better option. Dempsey knows how to score in big games and will be plenty determined to do that against Mexico. Altidore will make a solid super-sub.

Starters: Clint Dempsey, Bobby Wood

Midfielders

The U.S.’s hybrid 4-4-2 was shaped like a 4-1-3-2 against Trinidad and Tobago, with Michael Bradley playing as a lone No. 6, Pulisic acting as the No. 10, and Darlington Nagbe and Fabian Johnson playing on the wings. Nagbe was great, as was Pulisic, obviously. Johnson wasn’t himself.

Bradley, who was mostly very good, was isolated too much without help on either side of him, which opened space in the channels that T&T came close to exploiting multiple times, especially with roaming attacker Khaleem Hyland. Nagbe and Johnson don’t track back enough to make sure the U.S. are covered horizontally in front of the backline. A better team would have exploited that.

With Pulisic likely to start as a 10 again — how can he not after that performance? — the U.S. may end up shifting their formation to allow a more dedicated shuttler alongside Bradley to allow either Johnson or Nagbe to get up the flank on the other side. They have players who excel at that role: both Kellyn Acosta and Alejandro Bedoya are perfectly effective in this respect.

I’d pick Bedoya over Acosta because (a) he’s more disciplined and (b) he has more big game experience. He’s not flashy, but he knows the team shape and he will not take any personal liberty in his movement. And Nagbe over Johnson on the left side has become the better option after Nagbe’s far superior performance on Thursday.

Starters: Michael Bradley, Darlington Nagbe, Christian Pulisic, Alejandro Bedoya

Defense

Tim Howard’s the keeper again, just so we get that out of the way.

The backline should see a couple of changes, though. John Brooks had another shaky performance in Colorado, opening the door for current Liga MX center-back and international veteran Omar Gonzalez to cover for him at the Azteca. Jorge Villafana, who was good against T&T but is not experienced at this level and started to look exhausted at altitude on Thursday, should sit for DaMarcus Beasley, a left-back with more experience than anyone else on the roster.

Geoff Cameron and DeAndre Yedlin are the other starters, and those two are unquestionable. They’ve both been great.

Starters (left-to-right): DaMarcus Beasley, Omar Gonzalez, Geoff Cameron, DeAndre Yedlin

The final XI:

Don’t panic too much if the US lose a close one. Get really excited, though, if they walk out with a point.