30 teams in 30 days: Orlando Magic offseason preview
By Jeff Siegel
The Orlando Magic haven’t made the playoffs in the five years since Dwight Howard left and that streak doesn’t look to be ending any time soon. Like a lot of teams, they invested a lot of money and years in free agency last summer that leaves them without much wiggle room this summer and next.
They don’t have one single atrocious contract on their books like some other teams who drafted in the top six of the lottery on Thursday night, but rather they have a lot of money invested in guys who are quality role players for a playoff team without the pair of stars at the top to bring it all together. Sixth overall pick Jonathan Isaac and whomever they draft in the 2018 lottery will be the Magic’s best chance at finding those stars.
The Magic open free agency without any cap space with which new general manager John Hammond can work, but they’ll quickly open up space by renouncing the free agent holds on all four of their free agents: Jeff Green, who signed a one-year deal in Orlando last year because the Magic had extra money lying around and had to give it to someone, Jodie Meeks, who didn’t necessarily disappoint in his time on the floor but hasn’t been healthy since 2014-15, Fran Vazquez, a 2005 draft pick who never came over from Europe, and Damjan Rudez, who won’t be back unless it’s for the minimum. Additionally, the partially guaranteed salary of C.J. Watson will probably be let go; he’s owed $1 million until July 10, upon which the extra $4 million kicks in. Look for the Magic to waive him before July 10 and either take the $1 million hit this year or spread it out over the next three using the stretch provision.
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Orlando will end up with $10.7 million in cap space in this scenario, with another $2.25 million tied up in the Serge Ibaka trade exception, which they could renounce if they were really starved for space.
$10.7 million won’t net the Magic more than another role player in this market, but getting off Nikola Vucevic’s contract at $25 million over the next two years would get them into conversations with some of the starter-level free agents available. Vucevic is yet another player on this roster who could be a value on the right team, but his seemingly toxic personality and insistence on starting hurts his reputation around the league. At this point, moving him, even for no return, would be a good move for Orlando, who can’t hope to placate his desire to be a starter and move forward with the development of Aaron Gordon and Isaac.
All of their veterans are making relatively reasonable salaries, but the length of those deals and the sheer number of them add up for the Magic. D.J. Augustin is overpaid, but it’s the length of his deal that ties up more than $7 million on the Magic cap until 2020 that hurts Orlando more. Ditto for Terrence Ross ($10.5 million this year and next) and the aforementioned Vucevic contract. With all these contracts clogging up their cap sheet, 2019 is going to be the first time Orlando has significant cap space to rebuild their team.
Projecting needs for Orlando is simultaneously impossible and very easy—they don’t have many absolutely glaring weaknesses…other than the entire roster just isn’t that good. A lot of their individual players are solid, but none stand out as the guy who can push them into the playoff conversation. If Bismack Biyombo can recapture the defensive ability that got him his contract, he’ll be a valuable piece. Evan Fournier can shoot and make plays off the dribble, two of the three main skills for which teams look on the wing. Ross can get buckets off the bench. Gordon, assuming he can play his proper position, provides a lot of value athletically.
With $10.7 million in space, the Magic won’t find their star, but moving off Vucevic’s deal would push them to just shy of $23 million, enough to go out and get a big-name point guard like Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague or George Hill. Those guys are seeing their market disappear with every passing transaction, so they may take Orlando’s money if they’re the only team left with cap space to spend. The Magic should offer their point guard of choice a shorter deal, perhaps at a higher annual value, to keep that 2019 summer as open as possible.
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The added bonus of signing one of these point guards is that his old team will now be in the market for a replacement and trading Elfrid Payton to that team for a small asset becomes more likely. Payton is going into the fourth year of his rookie contract and a new team might be able to negotiate a smaller extension with him before he hits restricted free agency next summer. Something like a four year, $44 million contract might make sense for him.
The Magic are mostly capped out for the next two years, but they still have Isaac and their lottery pick next season to find that star they need to make a real push for the playoffs. Things aren’t pretty in Orlando, but under a new management regime, things might just turn around in the next few years.