MLB trade rumors: Braves open to moving Julio Teheran

The Atlanta Braves are headed for a crucial stretch of games, and Julio Teheran could be on the move before the trade deadline.

The Atlanta Braves are, somewhat surprisingly, sitting at .500 (45-45) entering Monday’s action. Any run to the top of NL East is out the window though, and being six games out of a Wild Card spot leaves them on the fringes of playoff contention.

The Braves start a series against the Chicago Cubs Monday night, with series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks after that. So a fall from any sort of playoff contention could be coming, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick recently pointed to left-hander Jaime Garcia and second baseman Brandon Phillips as trade chips for the Braves in that scenario.

Julio Teheran has been the subject of trade rumors before, as a relatively young (26) arm with at least two more years (club option for 2020) left on his contract. Atlanta’s reported willingness to make a deal has gone back and forth early in July, but ESPN’s Buster Olney has suggested they are very open to offers for Teheran.

Tehran has a 4.79 ERA over 18 starts (103.1 innings) this season, but his ERA at home (7.58) is far different from his road ERA (2.53) as SunTrust Park has been very friendly to hitters in its first season. That doesn’t fully account for an overall decline in his strikeout rate (6.5 K.9; 8.0 K/9 in 2016), but the home-road split for Teheran is telling over an equal number of starts thus far.

Teheran could easily be a key piece of the next contending team for the Braves. But before his most recent start there were statistical signs there’s more than meets the eye on his home-road ERAs. That particularly chink in Teheran’s armor might make now the time to trade him, as long as there’s a gap between perception based on those splits and possible looming reality.

Next: MLB Trade Deadline: 30 players most likely to move

The Braves can probably get a couple prospects for Tehran if they want to move him to a contending team. But the advanced data this year may diminish interest on the market from savvy front offices, and subsequent “offers” stand to make keeping him the best course.