ESPN FPI rankings: Oklahoma overrated, Oregon underrated and more takeaways

Teams like the Oklahoma Sooners are grossly overrated in the ESPN FPI preseason rankings, while teams like the Oregon Ducks deserve more respect than this.

Let’s argue about college football rankings.

The ESPN FPI preseason rankings for the 2020 college football season were released earlier this week. The top 10 features familiar names like the Clemson Tigers (No. 1), Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 2) and Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 4). As perpetual fixtures in the College Football Playoff, it comes as no surprise these programs find themselves in the top five.

However, any reasonable college football fan can take a look at this initial top 10 and realize it’s not right. It has four programs that have never made College Football Playoff before, ranked in the middle of the top 10, No. 5 to No. 8, respectively.

Though they might be getting a tad too much respect, at least teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions (No. 5), Wisconsin Badgers (No. 6) and Texas Longhorns (No. 7) have played in their conference championship games during the playoff era. Penn State actually won the Big Ten in 2016 but didn’t get a playoff invite.

While it’s hard to project how the college football season will shake out next year since it’s still February, it’s safe to say the initial FPI rankings got a few things wrong. Here are three teams it grossly overrated and three teams it criminally underrated.

Overrated

Oklahoma Sooners (No. 3)

It does not matter if the Oklahoma Sooners have made the College Football Playoff four times and won the Big 12 the last five seasons. This program navigates a manageable Big 12 schedule every year to not win a single playoff game ever. Oklahoma is now 0-4 in national semifinals and this trend isn’t changing anytime soon. The Sooners don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt any longer.

With no more transfer quarterbacks to send to the Heisman Trophy presentation, Lincoln Riley will have to put his faith in former five-star Spencer Rattler. Though he can get to New York like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts before him, his defense will ultimately let him down in the playoff. Outside of Norman, who seriously thinks this is the third-best team in college football?

Texas A&M Aggies (No. 8)

Did the Texas A&M University board of regents pay ESPN millions of dollars to get the Aggies into the top 10? It sure feels like it. While nobody questions how insanely difficult the Aggies’ schedule was last year, how sure are we they are even three wins better than it’s 2019 mark? Jimbo Fisher’s third year in College Station will be heavily scrutinized, but how good can this team really be?

Texas A&M is about one of six or seven teams that could win a seemingly wide-open SEC this year. The only problem is Texas A&M is historically a sit-down program, one that doesn’t rise to the occasion in big moments. Fisher may recruit well and Kellen Mond might be a solid quarterback, but Texas A&M is at best the third-best team in its own division and everybody knows it.

USC Trojans (No. 13)

This is straight-up laughable. We get how bad the Pac-12 is now, but what planet are we living on where Clay Helton‘s program is the best team the worst Power 5 conference has to offer? USC has been a total clown show for the better part of a decade. The Trojans had their worst recruiting year in recent memory. Helton will be fired at some point next year, yet they’re No. 13? Why?

Not being able to land five-star quarterback recruit Bryce Young in-state tells you everything you need to know about USC in 2020. Though there is a lot to like about presumptive starter Kedon Slovis, how sure are we the Trojans are even the second-best team in the weaker of the two Pac-12 divisions? USC may finish the year ranked in the top 25, but this is a nine-win team at best.

Underrated

Georgia Bulldogs (No. 10)

This one is dumb. Apparently finishing in the top five in recruiting and in the top five of the final College Football Playoff rankings the last three years doesn’t matter. The Georgia Bulldogs belong in the top five because of its recruiting dominance and on-field consistency in the last three seasons. Let’s not forget about how dominant of a defense head coach Kirby Smart has cultivated either.

The FPI projects Georgia to have the second-best defense in college football next year. Yet, the Dawgs are only good enough to barely crack the top 10? This doesn’t make sense. We should expect the passing attack to improve under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken with graduate transfer quarterback Jamie Newman leading the way under center for Georgia.

Florida Gators (No. 11)

For the first six years of the College Football Playoff, at least one team has made it to the final four for the first time. The team with arguably the best chance of doing it in 2020 has to be the Florida Gators, yet they aren’t even a top-10 team in the FPI’s initial rankings. This team has a great head coach in Dan Mullen, a strong quarterback in Kyle Trask and plays in a winnable SEC East division.

Florida may not recruit to the level of an Alabama, Clemson, Georgia or Ohio State, but this is a team you can count on to win at least 10 regular-season games next fall. If the Gators beat Georgia down in Jacksonville, they’ll go to Atlanta with a chance of winning their first conference championship since 2008. Florida is the epitome of a top-10 team heading into next season.

Oregon Ducks (No. 14)

The three likeliest teams to make the College Football Playoff next year are Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. As for the last team in, why couldn’t it be the Oregon Ducks? Even though quarterback Justin Herbert is going pro, head coach Mario Cristobal is still in Eugene. The Pac-12 might be down, but his Ducks proved last year they can hang with the big boys and belong in the top 10.

Ultimately, coming in at No. 14 isn’t a big deal because the Ducks will prove it out on the field. But having a tire-fire like USC one spot ahead of them makes the initial FPI almost irredeemable. Beating Utah and Wisconsin last year is no joke. Holding its own against Auburn on a neutral-site was commendable. The Pac-12 stinks, but Oregon is built to win big under Cristobal this fall.

Overall, there is a lot to take in here with the initial FPI rankings. Of course, this will all change several times over before Labor Day weekend. So we have to expect these rankings to be refined a handful of times in the coming months. Otherwise, how can we take them seriously with Texas A&M being ahead of four SEC programs (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Auburn) it’s clearly worse than?

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