15 unexpected teams who still have a shot at CFP

The 12-team College Football Playoff tournament is just a few short weeks away from gracing our television sets. There have been a ton of surprises in the playoff rankings. Even this week's rankings had a bunch of surprises. Boise State officially took one of the top four spots as a leader in a top-four conference. The Big 12 fell out of that spot, and BYU is all the way down to 12th. There are other gripes, but that's for another article.

Here, we're talking about the teams on the outside looking in. These are the teams that are staring at a season without a Playoff. Some of these teams are basically surprising because you literally can't believe that these teams still have a chance. Others are surprising based on how likely or unlikely their chances are to usurp who is already sitting pretty in the rankings.

There are two weeks left, and there are teams who have a serious chance to make it. Others would need a miracle, but we've seen miracles before. Some of these would spin the College Football Playoffs on its head, and they might even force the NCAA to change how it chooses who gets into the tournament. Heck, if this first team makes the Playoff, the entire system is broken.

However, one team is especially unqualified for the Playoffs, but as Lloyd Christmas says in the 1994 classic Dumb and Dumber, "So you're saying there's a chance." We will use this Playoff probability chart to assess each team's chances.

15 college football teams you won't believe still have a chance to make the College Football Playoff with two games to go

15. West Virginia Mountaineers
Current Record: 5-5
Chances at Playoff: <1%

The West Virginia Mountaineers are a dreadfully average team. Sometimes they can squeak by opponents with a decent offense, especially the running game led by C.J. Donaldson and Jaheim White, but the rest of the team is either mediocre or dreadful. Garrett Greene seems to forget how to pass every so often, and the defense is truly bad. Yet, this is a team that's still somehow in the running for a Big 12 title. To win it, they'd need to win the next two games against UCF and Texas Tech (both doable), then have every other team ahead of them lose unless they are playing each other. Then maybe they need a tie? It's unclear how a team that most analysts have outside their top 50 still has a chance to make the top 12, but that's Big 12 football for ya.

14. Marshall Thundering Herd
Current Record: 7-3
Chances at Playoff: <1%

We don't even have to leave the state of West Virginia to find another team that is very unqualified for the College Football Playoff, but they still have a chance with less than two weeks left until we have these teams confirmed. Marshall is looking to snag the Group of Five spot that exists thanks to the explosion of the Pac 12. Right now, Boise State holds that spot, but if they lose both their games or lose their conference championship, as does the head of the American Athletic Conference, and they can beat out the rest of the teams at the top of the Sunbelt, then Marshall has a chance to make history. Nobody said history was easy, but this is asking a lot. At least they can say they are above their in-state rival in playoff odds. West Virginia may be a small state, but it's a petty state, and even something like this is giving the "We Are" nation a little more bragging rights.

13. Kansas State Wildcats
Current Record: 7-3
Chances at Playoff: <1%

Let’s head back to the Big 12, where the conference is still somewhat open with two weeks to go. The newly-expanded conference is still trying to find its footing after the departures of their catalyst franchises Oklahoma and Texas. With so much to prove, many thought Kansas State was primed to step up and compete for the Big 12’s spot in the College Football Playoff. They did lose Will Howard in the offseason, but many thought DJ Giddens could replace that offense on the ground. Avery Johnson is also a talented QB. However, a few untimely losses in November has them plummeting down the standings. They entered the month 7-1 and looking primed for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Now, they have almost no chance to get back to those heights. Even if they turn it around and beat Cincinnati and Iowa State to end their season, they’d need a ton of help across the Big 12 to get in.

12. James Madison Dukes
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: <1%

We know all of you out there are circling the big Marshall-JMU game that's coming up on November 30th as a key game to determine which team might have a slightly closer to 1% chance at sneaking into the Playoff. James Madison has had a good season, and they have a lot to celebrate, but it's preposterous that a Group of Five team with two losses is still fighting for it's Playoff life. JMU does do a lot of what previous Group of Five teams have done to stay relevant against their Power 5 counterparts. They cause a ton of turnovers (25 on the season), and they can score early. They'll need that and a golden horseshoe to even have a shot to represent this group in the Playoff.

11. South Carolina Gamecocks
Current Record: 7-3
Chances at Playoff: 1%

At least South Carolina has some signature wins this season, unlike many of the other teams on this list. The Gamecocks beat the bricks off of Texas A&M. They lost to the likes of Alabama (currently in the Playoff) by three, LSU by three, and then Ole Miss humbled them beyond belief. They did just end Missouri’s unlikely Playoff big, beating them on home soil. They also have a very interesting Clemson matchup to end the season. They are very unlikely because of their schedule and the schedule of others in the SEC, but if quite a few things fall their way, East Coast USC has a chance to sneak into the Playoff.

10. UNLV Rebels
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 3%

What a story this would be. The UNLV Rebels were all over the headlines earlier this season when their starting quarterback decided he was going to end his own season over a dispute spurned from NIL money not being paid. This was the most predictable outcome to NIL, which has been largely unregulated. Sponsors were eventually going to make false promises, and it seems Matthew Sluka felt the team was behind said promises, as well.

While it was predictable, nobody thought it would actually happen to a team that was undefeated and on its way to a Playoff berth. UNLV isn’t the same team without Sluka, but their two losses are both heartbreakers, one to Syracuse and another to Boise State, who is in the Playoff right now. Hajj-Malik Williams has been leading the team under center, and the Rebels may get another chance at Boise State in the Mountain West Title Game, which would be a rematch of last year’s Championship Game.

9. Iowa State Cyclones
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 8%

And we’re back to the Big 12, which is hardly close to picking a conference winner. Because of BYU’s loss to unranked Kansas last week, there are now nine teams who could still possibly win the Big 12 title with two weeks to go before the conference championship game. That’s actually insane, and it’s why so many Big 12 teams are still in the race. Iowa State was one of those teams that many thought had a good chance to produce this season with the Sooners and Longhorns gone.

Iowa State has been in the conversation before, and even made the championship game in 2020, but they lost to Oklahoma that season. This year, the Cyclones have a few decent wins, including against their in-state rivals the Hawkeyes. However, they found a way to avoid the hardest Big 12 teams to play, but they still have two in-conference losses. They need a very good showing to end the season to make it to the Playoff, and if they do, they might be double-digit underdogs.

8. Arizona State Sun Devils
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 13%

Those Big 12 numbers are starting to rise! Arizona is enjoying a successful first year in the Big 12, boasting an 8-2 record. It’s been a rough few seasons for the Sun Devils, as the Herm Edwards era ended with scandal and wins removed from their history. It felt like kicking someone when they were down when the NCAA took two of Arizona State’s three wins from 2022. In 2023, ASU still won just three games under new head coach Kenny Dillingham. Now, he has this program going in the right direction in a conference looking for new history.

Arizona State is one of the country’s biggest surprises this season, and they have so much to celebrate. Will they celebrate a spot in the Big 12 title game with a chance to go to the Playoff? Beating BYU this weekend would go a long way in really opening up the Big 12 to all teams, and ASU’s wins might put them ahead of others for an argument to hold onto the regular season title.

7. Tulane Green Wave
Current Record: 9-2
Chances at Playoff: 19%

If the Tulane Green Wave win the next two games on their schedule, which includes the American Athletic Conference title game, they have a 48 percent shot at making the College Football Playoff. The fact that their odds as of today are less than 20 percent show the faith oddsmakers have in Tulane, but they should give this team a chance. The big issue with Tulane is they had two chances to really make a statement against teams in the Power 5, and they failed.

In back-to-back weeks, the Green Wave had Kansas State and Oklahoma on the schedule. They lost both, with the former coming on home turf. It was early in the season, and one could argue Tulane learned a lot from that experience. They haven’t lost a game since losing to Oklahoma on September 14th, giving Tulane one of the longest winning streaks in the country. If it extends, don’t be surprised if they make the Playoff.

6. Clemson Tigers
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 21%

We’re used to seeing Clemson in this spot, fighting for a chance to play in the College Football Playoff, but we expected it to be a little easier with this expanded field. Clemson made the four-team College Football Playoff every year from 2016 to 2021. Dabo Swinney has this team as a legit contender every year, but things have been different as of late. Swinney is one of the old-school head coaches that is protesting some of the changes happening to college football. Unlike coaches like Nick Saban, who just up and retired, Swinney is trying to win differently than other coaches. He doesn’t want to recruit out of the transfer portal, instead focusing on recruiting great talent like he always has.

This season, he’s starting to see the fruits of his labor. Cade Klubnik is one of the best quarterbacks in college football. He spreads the ball around, with five receivers breaking 250 yards and none over 1,000 yet. The question is: how could Clemson accept a spot in the Playoff after a 34-3 loss in the opener to Georgia? This isn’t the old Clemson team, but it still has qualities that could see them make a run.

5. Army Black Knights
Current Record: 9-0
Chances at Playoff: 24%

It seems like the whole point of this whole “12-team Playoff” exercise was to avoid situations like this. Undefeated teams should have a chance to play for a championship, no matter who their opponents were. Army’s strength of schedule is dreadful, but they have something that no other team on this list has. The Black Knights still have three games left on the schedule. The special Army-Navy matchup gets its own weekend, and pushing the Black Knights to 12-0 would make it incredibly hard to keep them out of the Playoff.

Would a Boise State team with more losses make it over Army? When UCF made its claim to a National Championship despite never playing for one, the Playoff conversations started. What happens when an undefeated team doesn’t get in during the 12-team Playoff’s introduction? 

4. Texas A&M Aggies
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 26%

This is the first team on this list that controls its own destiny. That sounds crazy since Texas A&M is currently sitting on the outside of the Playoff looking in, and as you can see, they literally have a 26 percent chance to make the Playoff as of this writing, but even with those long odds, if the Aggies win every game on their schedule, they are in the College Football Playoff's 12-team slate.

One of the primary reasons for the hope is Texas A&M's matchup with in-state rival Texas. The two teams are trying desperately to end the other's season in devastating fashion. If the Aggies accomplish that and avoid an upset this week at the hands of Auburn, they are in the SEC Championship Game. There, anything can happen. The SEC is as competitive as ever, and any team in the Playoff could make a run with how talented they are. This includes the Aggies.

3. Colorado Buffaloes
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 36%

There are certain teams we know that the NCAA wants in the College Football Playoff. They want those rabid fan bases that have mass appeal, whether it's rooting for or against these traditional powerhouses. Three years ago, Colorado would be nowhere near that list, but they might be right at the top this season. Deion Sanders has the hype train rolling in Boulder, but what’s been surprising this season is how well he’s coaching and how impactful his stars have been.

Travis Hunter might win the Heisman Trophy as a wide receiver. Shedeur Sanders might play himself into a first-overall pick if he’s able to make the Playoff and contribute highly. They have two talented teams left in Kansas and Oklahoma State, but both have disappointed. If they win those two games, they likely make the Big 12 Championship Game, and they might be the favorite there, too. Getting the Buffaloes into the Playoff is priority number one for the NCAA, hoping to boost the ratings for future matchups.

2. Tennessee Volunteers
Current Record: 8-2
Chances at Playoff: 46%

The Tennessee Volunteers are the 11th-ranked team in the nation, but they are currently on the outside of the Playoff looking in. They lost this week to Georgia, which is understandable. Georgia is one of the best teams in the country. Tennessee has one of the hardest schedules in college football, playing in the insane SEC. This year, with the addition of Texas (and on a much smaller scale Oklahoma), this is truly the standard bearer for quality college football. And the Volunteers only have two losses going through this gauntlet.

The real issue is that Tennessee lost to Arkansas. That was not a game the Vols could lose. Losing to the Bulldogs is almost expected. These losses happen. Losing to Arkansas is hard to come back from. However, they did beat Alabama since the Arkansas loss, so that shouldn’t be the deciding factor. Tennessee has to root for someone to lose because it’s unlikely they get a chance to prove themselves again.

1. SMU Mustangs
Current Record: 9-1
Chances at Playoff: 50%

SMU is having an incredible first year in the ACC. They haven’t loss a conference game, putting them at the top of the standings. This would make most people assume that SMU is going to roll into the College Football Playoff, but the committee has no interest in that, it seems. They still have Miami ranked ahead of them, and they are probably looking for an excuse to put Clemson ahead of them, as well. However, if SMU is the conference champion, then they are in.

So it truly comes down to two things: if SMU can beat Virginia and Cal, and if they can then beat whoever makes it to the ACC Championship Game. We’re looking at 50-50 odds for SMU, but they’ve truly played a powder puff schedule. Their one loss is against BYU, who is their only really good opponent. Their most impressive win was against Pitt, and they did post 48 points on them. This offense can score with anyone. Can the defense do enough to beat Miami or Clemson? Time will tell.