2 prospects whose hot spring training starts feel sustainable, 2 who don't

Now that we have a healthy sample of spring training games under our belts, there are a number of prospects that have been thrust into the spotlight. Whether it's top talents competing for a chance on their teams' Opening Day rosters or guys announcing their arrival this spring who are still a ways away from the big leagues, there's no shortage of Minor Leaguers who are impressing early in camp.

However, spring training can be a bit of a mirage. Some performances are the real deal and a preview of good things to come, while others are just random hot streaks from guys that end up fading into obscurity. It is easy to get caught up in a strong spring, especially from a top prospect who has some name recognition, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that a hot start to camp means that a star is being born in front of our eyes.

So how do we tell the difference? Well, that is easier said than done.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

MLB prospects who are on heaters during spring training that feel sustainable

When you are looking at prospect performances in spring training and figuring out if they are "real" or not, you want to look at previous track record, raw tools, and experience level. A guy with 50 pro games under his belt and limited upside going wild over the first 10 games of spring training usually means a lot less than a top prospect who has performed for a couple years in the Minors and was already on the verge of a call-up to the big leagues.

Here is a look at a couple prospects whose strong springs do appear to be quite real, and could be a sign that they are ready to contribute in the Majors in 2025.

Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles

One thing that everyone seems to agree on is that Basallo is going to hit in the big leagues, even if reasonable people disagree as to how much of a ceiling his bat has. He has been a lock to flirt with at least an .800 OPS every year down in the Minors, including a stellar 2023 season in which he clocked 20 homers and put up a stellar .953 OPS. While a stress fracture in his elbow hampered Basallo early in 2024, he still put up a strong season at the plate, including 19 more home runs on his ledger and a lot more hard contact along the way.

It is hardly a surprise that Basallo has a 1.083 OPS so far this spring, including a homer in a small sample of playing time. Again, the guy just knows how to make consistent hard contact, and he is up against pitchers who are either just getting work in, Minor Leaguers themselves, and/or arms desperately trying to make their big-league rosters. There is some debate as to whether or not Basallo will stick at catcher long-term given his large frame and questionable defense, but the bat isn't really in question and it should play anywhere on the field.

Jackson Jobe, SP, Detroit Tigers

Before Roki Sasaki signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the top pitching prospect in baseball was Jobe — and there was little debate. Jobe's ascension was slowed down a bit by a back injury in 2023, but he bounced back pretty quickly thanks in large part to having a nasty combo of a high 90s fastball and a wipeout slider that ranks among one of the best breaking balls in the Minor Leagues. For many, Jobe came into Tigers camp as a guy that had a really strong chance of being in Detroit's rotation from day one in 2025.

While Jobe's first appearance this spring wasn't ideal, his second start against the Pirates was an absolute clinic. He was piping fastballs by guys and getting some truly ugly swings against his breaking stuff. After the game, Jobe said he was letting his stuff do the work versus overthinking things like he did in his first spring start. Assuming he can keep this up in longer stints as camp progresses, Jobe is going to be a problem for opposing big league hitters this coming season.

MLB prospects crushing it in spring training, but it won't last

Now we come to the list of prospects whose production in spring seems less sustainable. Before you get your pitchforks and torches out, this is not a list of guys with no chance whatsoever of being productive big leaguers. Instead, these are guys who are quite talented, but who have something about their profile that should force everyone to pump the brakes a bit and remain cautious before reading too much into how they look early in spring training.

Chandler Simpson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

It would be great to be wrong about Simpson, because man he is fun to watch. Simpson has never hit below .293 in the Minor Leagues, rarely strikes out, draws a fair number of walks, and he can absolutely fly around the bases. After stealing 94 bases in 2023, Simpson managed to tally 104 thefts last season and is solidifying himself as one of baseball's fastest and most fascinating prospects.

So far, Simpson is hitting .400 this spring and predictably has a couple stolen bases in limited action. That is exciting, but the reality with Simpson is that he has basically no power to speak of and he has a skill set that is primed to overperform against guys early in spring training. MLB defenders are only just getting up to speed defensively, and a guy who just makes loads of contact and also runs exceedingly fast is going to have a bit more success than usual in that environment. The jury is still out on whether Simpson is going to turn into an Ichiro/Vince Coleman hybrid, but that is an incredibly hard (though not impossible) profile to make work in the big leagues, and folks shouldn't read too much into his early success in camp just yet.

Christian Moore, INF, Los Angeles Angels

This is one where we could easily be wrong, and the Angels certainly seem to betting heavily on Moore. After drafting him No. 8 overall in last year's draft, L.A. was very aggressive in promoting the infielder through the Minor Leagues; there were even whispers of a potential late 2024 season call-up. It didn't hurt Moore's case that he slashed .347/.400/.584 with six homers in his first 25 games as a pro.

Moore has seen a good bit of action this spring and is hitting close to .300 with a .400 OBP, obviously a pretty good spot to be in when you consider that hitters usually lag behind pitchers early in camp. Moore could end up being a really good player, but his lack of experience and track record is concerning. At some point, opposing pitchers are going to figure out his weaknesses and take advantage of his aggressiveness at the plate. It will be on Moore to adjust to that when it happens, but fans shouldn't expect Moore to immediately be a star when he does get called up — which could be early in 2025.

More MLB News from FanSided