The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers met on Thursday night for the final time this regular season. The Dubs came away with the 123-116 win, their first in four opportunities against the Lakers this year, but what's most notable about the game is that it brought us one step closer to something Adam Silver dreams about on a nightly basis, and no, I don't mean a world where Ja Morant stops doing air guns: A Warriors-Lakers first-round playoff series.
The NBA's public relations department has been working overtime to fight the perception that ratings and interest in the league are down, but a Warriors-Lakers showdown could be just the panacea that the Association needs. Just think of the headlines — LeBron James versus Steph Curry in a battle of the league's two most reliable box office draws. Luka Dončić versus Jimmy Butler as the newest faces in this classic rivalry. Draymond Green versus, well, everybody. That's how it usually works with Green.
Following Thursday's result, the Lakers are now one game ahead of the Warriors with six games left for each team. They also hold the tiebreaker. More importantly, they currently occupy the fourth and fifth slots in the West, which would pit them against each other in the first round. The standings are extremely tight and there's a good chance that we'll see more movement before the regular season concludes, but as of now at least, we're in line to get the series everyone wants.
Should the Lakers want to face the Warriors? That's a tricky question, for a variety of reasons. L.A. won the season series 3-1, but the Warriors have now won the most recent matchup, which could give them more confidence heading in. There are a few teams out there, such as the free-falling Grizzlies or even the tough but inexperienced Rockets, that the Lakers would rather play. Things are so close though that there's probably no way that L.A. can go out of its way to hand-select an opponent. Home-court advantage is still very much up in the air, and the Lakers need to finish strong to make sure they don't have to play a potential Game 7 on the road.
Today we're diving into two reasons the Lakers should worry if they draw the Warriors in the postseason, plus two reasons they should feel confident. This series could go either way, but one thing we know is that it would be an epic matchup.
Lakers reason to worry No. 1: The Warriors have been close to unstoppable since Jimmy Butler arrived
If these teams do end up meeting as the No. 4 and 5 seeds in the first round, it will be pretty unfortunate for the Lakers, because Golden State has been one of the best teams in the league ever since they traded for Jimmy Butler at the deadline.
Butler has given the Warriors their swagger back. Before he arrived, the Dubs were on the fringes of the play-in discussion, without much of a path to getting a good seed or being seen as a true contender. When he and Steph Curry have both played, Golden State is a ridiculous 19-2.
The Lakers won all three matchups between these teams before Butler showed up, but now the Warriors have won the only meeting since he arrived. The Lakers are also a very different team, objectively for the better, but in this particular matchup, they could feel the pain of no longer having Anthony Davis around to take advantage of a Warriors team that doesn't have a center that can go toe-to-toe with him.
AD only played one full game against the Warriors this year as a member of the purple and gold (he left after seven minutes with a sprained ankle in their Christmas matchup), and he dominated them with 36 points and 13 rebounds. Luka Dončić brings a lot to the table, but he's not going to put Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis in a blender in the low post.
Lakers reason to be confident No. 1: Brandin Podziemski can't possibly do that again
Steph Curry led the way for the Warriors with 37 points on Thursday, but Golden State also got an unrepeatable contribution from Brandin Podziemski. Podz scored 28 points, his second-highest total of the season, and he did it by making eight of 10 shots from 3-point range. Even Steph can't do that on a consistent basis, and there's no reason to think that Podziemski, a 37.2 percent outside shooter this year, can come even close to doing that again, let alone in the pressure-packed atmosphere of the playoffs.
Podziemski is in just his second year in the league, and his only postseason experience is last year's play-in loss to the Kings in which he played 24 minutes and scored five points. He's not alone on this Warriors team either, because outside of Steph, Butler and Green (who admittedly have a metric ton of playoff experience), there isn't anyone else on this roster that has really done much in the postseason, unless you count Looney, who doesn't exactly stuff the stat sheet. Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, TJD and rookie Quentin Post are all at a vast postseason experience disadvantage against the likes of Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Lakers reason to worry No. 2: Steve Kerr's experience advantage over JJ Redick
Coaching matters during the regular season, but in the playoffs, where every matchup disadvantage can be exploited ad nauseum and adjustments made from game to game are often the difference between moving on and going home, it really matters. In that regard, the Warriors have a gigantic edge with Steve Kerr over JJ Redick.
This isn't to take anything away from the job Redick has done. On the contrary, he's been a revelation that clearly has a long coaching career laid out before him. Lakers fans would be lucky to have him here for the next decade or more. Just as experience for players matters in the playoffs though, it also does for coaches.
Kerr has coached four NBA champions, and his career playoff record of 99-41 is up there with the best to ever do it. Redick's postseason coaching record is the same as yours and mine, and while it's tempting to say that LeBron and Luka will be enough to win, the Warriors have elite guys too, and Kerr will come up with ways to neutralize the Lakers' strengths. Will Redick be able to do the same when he's never had to do it before?
Lakers reason to be confident No. 2: Luka, LeBron and Austin Reaves will score too many points for the Warriors to overcome
The Lakers' role players have more playoff experience in this matchup, but who are we kidding? This series would almost certainly come down to each team's "Big 3."
Each side has different strengths. The Warriors' trio of Steph, Butler and Green excels defensively. Butler and Green can both switch onto any player, especially on the perimeter, where the Lakers initiate almost all of their offense. The Lakers' triumvirate is an offensive juggernaut, with each guy capable of putting up over 30 points and/or 10 assists on any given night.
Green got the better of Luka on Thursday night, holding him to 19 points on 6-17 shooting, including an 0-6 mark from deep. He also came up with a crucial strip on Luka late as the Lakers were trying to come back.
Green had the last laugh in this most recent game, but Luka has gotten the best of him in their previous matchups. Including Thursday's game, the two have met 15 times. In those games, Luka is averaging 29.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists. Before he broke his streak last night, Luka had scored 30 or more in his last five games against Green and the Warriors, and in three of those games, he put up a triple-double.
LeBron always brings his A game against the Warriors, but the X-factor is Austin Reaves, who continues to get better and better with every passing day. He scored 31 on Thursday, but it's not much of an aberration, as it's the fifth time he's put up at least 30 in the past three weeks.
The Lakers are going to be getting 80 points or more from their Big 3 no matter what the Warriors try to do to stop them. That's going to be difficult for Golden State to overcome.
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