Fantasy Baseball: How to Rank Hitting Statistics

Whether you’re ranking players before a draft, trying to make a trade, or deciding what players to pick up in free agency, it helps to know how to value everyone. Are the classic high average, low power totals guys more valuable than the exact opposite type of hitters? Are high strikeout, high walk pitchers better than those who hardly ever do either?

Well, depending on how your team is doing, this fluctuates greatly. If you’re into your season, you need to react to what’s happening right in front of you. But if things are going neutral or you’re trying to prepare for a season, it helps to know what stats to value over the others. So, if you’re not in need of a particular category, take a look at how I like to value the classic roto stats. Before going on, I will note that while I value hitters far more than pitchers, these are going to be two separate lists.

For those of you who don’t know, the standard categories are runs, home runs, runs batted in, steals, and batting average for a hitter and wins, strikeouts, saves, earned run average (ERA), and walk/hits per innings pitched (WHIP) for pitchers. Those are the only stats we’re looking at. Clave, Nash, and myself all do use other stats to try to figure out value, but that’s somewhat subjective. Here, we’re just looking at the standard hitting stats. Next week, we’ll be looking into the wonderful world of pitching.

Most Valuable: Home runs

This is actually a pretty simple formula. When you hit a home run, every one of your offensive stats is bolstered, with the exception of the stolen base (I promise, we’ll get to that). You get a hit, which bolsters your team average. You get at least one RBI, one run, and of course one home run. It’s not a bad combo.

Now, it is true that hitters who hit a lot of homers tend to focus just on that, which causes their batting average to suffer. But even with that, there’s some silver lining. Let’s take a look at Ryan Howard‘s 2008 season as a prime example of what I am talking about.

Obviously, big Ryan is not a prolific base stealer. As shocked as I am sure that you are to read this, try to pull yourself together to hear the rest of this argument out.

In two-thirds of the Triple Crown categories, Howard was a dominant force, leading the majors in both homers and RBI. Adam Dunn‘s 40 homers were second in the majors, while David Wright was second with 124 RBI. Throw in 105 runs (ninth in the league), and we’re looking at a fantasy juggernaut in 2008. But what about that average?

Well, I know that I said we’re only looking at traditional fantasy categories, but there is a way we work around a .251 average that in 2008 was probably turned in by a very early round pick. Walks.

You will not find a power hitter that doesn’t draw a lot of walks and the 2008 version of Ryan Howard was no exception, drawing 81 (actually a low total for his standards, but still tied for 13th in the league). Walks don’t count as an at bat. So, Howard’s average was poor, but the walk totals kept the team’s at bats down.

If you have a guy on your fantasy team that has only one AB in a game and makes an out (a .000 average for that day), and another who goes four-for-four (a 1.000 average for that day), your team’s average between those two players is not .500, it’s  .800. When you have a guy with a low average but who’s walk numbers keep his AB totals low, it becomes much easier to make that up.

Even if they hit for a poor average, every pitcher in the league knows that the hitter is capable of a round tripper on any swing. They get pitched to carefully, draw a lot of walks, keep the AB total low, and make it much easier for the rest of your team to make up for your slugger’s average while he carries your power stats.

So, look to the home run first, they bring you four out of five categories. No, the rest of the stats will not be this long.

Second Most Valuable: Batting Average

There’s no doubt that if you have guys like Ryan Howard on your team, the average will suffer. So, you need to bring in some high average guys to pick up the slack, even if the home run numbers aren’t what you would want.

Even if a hit is not a home run, it can still have a big impact on your fantasy stats, even if it is in a slightly indirect way.

1. If you get a hit, your average goes up. I am hoping you all grasp that concept.
2. If you get a hit with men on base, there’s a decent chance someone will score, generating an RBI.
3. You can’t score a run without getting on base. Of all the ways to get on base, a hit is by far the one that the hitter has the most control of. If he gets a hit, he doesn’t need to hope a pitcher goes wild or a fielder makes an error (which still hurts the batting average), he is on base and ready to score a run if someone behind him comes through.
4. You can’t steal a base without getting on base. As we just went over, a hit is the only way a hitter can reach base with no help.

So, counting home runs one hit can have an impact on four categories (it can’t be five, as you can’t record a steal and hit a homer in the same at-bat). But it’s not quite as valuable as a homer because every homer helps your average, every homer is an RBI, every homer is a run, every homer is a homer. With a hit, the only thing guaranteed is a bump to your average, the rest either aren’t guaranteed and would come more indirectly.

Third Most Valuable: Runs

I went back-and-forth on this one for a while. Homers and Average are clearly one and two in that order, the least valuable is a slam dunk, but three and four were a little hard to separate.

Ultimately, you need guys who score a lot of runs because someone who scores them is probably good in at least either homers, average, or steals, if not two or all three of those. Someone isn’t going to score a run if they’re not in position to do so. A run doesn’t necessarily mean that your player has done anything else well as even without an error he could walk, be sacrificed over, and then driven in. But chances are if he’s scored a run, he’s gotten a hit, or drawn a walk and stolen a base.

Fourth Most Valuable: RBI

Too closely related to the home run to be any higher. You don’t need to look for RBI guys as they’re the same guys you’re looking at when analyzing your home run threats. Very few players drive in a lot of runs without having good power. If you catch one of those few, he’s got a very good average.

I love the RBI, but it’s not a stat you look for. Keep your eyes open for high HR and AVG guys and your RBI total will be fine.

Least Valuable: Stolen Base

This is where Fantasy Dixon and Real Life Dixon become two different people. As a real baseball fan, I like managers that press the opposing team, forcing that defense to make a good play. If you have a guy who can steal a base to get in scoring position, do it. That way, it just takes a bloop to drive him in.

From a fantasy perspective, this is the most useless stat in the fantasy game. If you have a standard stat where Coco Crisp is the second most valuable player in the league, something is seriously wrong. Just for fun, let’s look at how Crisp and Brett Gardner (who tied Crisp for second) stack up against other statistical runners up in 2011.

The runner-up in four of the five fantasy statistics was in the top 20 in two others. The two men who tied for second in steals cracked the top-35 in one other category combined, and weren’t in the top-80 in anything else.

And just so you know, these two were not exceptions. There were a few elite players at or near the top of 2011’s stolen base list, but most others were guys that you wouldn’t want anywhere near your fantasy team.

Take that for whatever it’s worth to you. If you need steals and can afford a hit in another category, then some of the top stolen base guys may be worth it. But if you’re preparing for a season or just trying to give a new look to a struggling fantasy team, consider stolen bases a last resort.