Matt Flynn: Fantasy Sleeper or Bust?

Matt Flynn may be the most interesting fantasy football pick for this upcoming season. He has shown that he can put up monstrous numbers in his two games that he played for an injured/resting Aaron Rodgers. He has played the best regular season game in Packers franchise history!! (Which single handedly won me my fantasy football championship last season). How does a guy who has played two full games in his entire career outplay a 3 time MVP and the current MVP? My feeling is that it was a fluke. I am not saying that Flynn cannot be a good quarterback, but if you are thinking about him as a starter this fantasy season I hope to change your mind. There are three reasons why you should avoid Flynn as your starter.

1. Don’t be distracted by his record breaking game last year!

I admit that the game he played was absolutely incredible, but of his 6 touchdowns only two of them were truly good throws. His first touchdown pass was 0 yards down field to Jordy Nelson, who had a nice stiff arm and ran it in for the score. His second touchdown pass was thrown 2 yards down field to Ryan Grant who ran 80 yards for the score. Jordy Nelson then made two more great catches on slightly underthrown balls. If you don’t believe me check out this clip. Not to mention he was playing against the Detroit Lions secondary which is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 22nd in pass defense, despite a decent pass rush.

2. Matt Flynn has played one full season of football since his senior year of high school.

That was his redshirt senior year at LSU where he put up mediocre numbers and took the Trent Dilfer route to a national championship. (For those of you unfamiliar with the Trent Dilfer route- Dilfer, with a QB rating of 70, rode the coattails of an incredible defense to win a championship.) Matt Flynn has obviously improved since his LSU days, but many of the great quarterbacks in our league struggled in their first full season. Tom Brady in his first full season in the NFL threw for under 3000 yards and only 18 touchdowns. Drew Brees had one less interception than touchdowns in his first full season. Unless a quarterback is a prodigy, the likes of Peyton Manning or John Elway, his first full season is not going to be an exceptional one. It doesn’t mean Matt Flynn won’t be a good quarterback it’s just unlikely he will put up monstrous numbers this year.

3. Matt Flynn will be stifled in the Seattle Seahawk offense.

The Green Bay system is designed to throw the ball a lot and take a lot of shots downfield. Seattle’s system is not set up that way. Seattle wants to put the ball on the ground and try and hurt you with a couple of play action passes, a la the 49ers offense last season. This is an effective offense in the NFL, but prevents the QB from putting up fantasy championship numbers. Flynn also was able to play with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. He will now have less talented receivers as well as linemen.
It is unlikely that Flynn will put up very impressive fantasy numbers for any fantasy team this season. My advice, if you want to gamble on him draft him as your back up. It is too much of a gamble to rely on an unproven guy to carry the QB position on your fantasy team. Stay safe and draft him as a backup and hope you get him for a good match-up when your starting QB’s bye week rolls around.