FanSided Top 25 Preview Countdown: No. 24 Boise State Broncos

This is a continuation of a 25-part series previewing all 25 teams in the FanSided Top 25, in a countdown to opening Saturday. So with 24 days until September 1st, we continue with the 24th-ranked Boise State Broncos.

The Boise State Broncos won’t die.

MAACO Bowl after MAACO Bowl after Hawaii Bowl, the underdog-turned-football-powerhouse Broncos continue to stay in the hunt for college football immortality despite three losses in the past four years earning them just one trip to a BCS bowl (the 2009 Fiesta Bowl). Kellen Moore, the winningest QB in NCAA football history, went undrafted, despite 142 touchdowns (and just 28 picks) in his four-year career as a Bronco.

This team, despite being ranked in preseason polls consistently, and in the AP preseason poll every year for the past three years, is still the unheralded squad that just can’t catch a break, except for being ranked somewhere.

And now they really cannot catch a freaking break, because, legitimately, Boise State is not worthy of these preseason top-10 rankings they’ve enjoyed. For the first time since 2008, Boise State isn’t projected to be a top-15. Not with all the turnover in Idaho.

Kellen Moore, as we said, is gone. Top running back Doug Martin, who ran for over 1200 yards last season? Gone. Their top pass-catcher in Tyler Shoemaker? Gone.  All-MWC first-team offensive tackle Nate Potter? Gone. All-MWC defensive linemen Shea McClellin and Tyrone Crawford? Gone. Leading tackler Bryan Hout? Nope, gone. How about all-MWC first-team safety George Iloka? He’s gone, too.

Boise State bled a lot of talent between January and now. So can you blame them for putting together one of the greatest, least-compensated runs in college football history and then “flaming out” into the bottom of a top-25 poll?

You can’t. But you can look forward to Boise State bouncing back. This team still plays in the Mountain Western Conference, and the Big East can wait until 2013 when BSU makes the switch. This squad — forced into a form of rebuilding and retooling because of all the departures — is still a top-25 team and still a regional hegemon, so to speak.

Boise State is still Boise State.

Key Returns: RB D.J. Harper, QB Joe Southwick, WR Matt Miller, DT Mike Atkinson

Key Losses: Everyone. (Kellen Moore, Tyler Shoemaker, Nate Potter, Tyrone Crawford, Bryan Hout, George Iloka, et al.)

Make Or Break Game: at Southern Miss, October 6

Boise State will have to learn to deal with “road bumps” and will have to swallow early-season losses that are actually expected. Right off the bat, the team will play Michigan State and a couple of weeks later, they play the BYU Cougars (OK, they aren’t that great, but they’re worth a worry). You’d expect that this team should beat BYU and will likely lose to Michigan State while plowing through the likes of New Mexico and Miami (OH).

In comes Southern Mississippi, a team that does well in the weak Conference USA. They shouldn’t pose all that much of a challenge, but it’s the first game of the new month of October, and by this time, you’d expect Boise State to have its stuff together and beat Southern Miss somewhat handily and make a run for yet another one-win season that will see them go to the MAACO Bowl.

This is about as make-or-break as you can get, because Boise State will have little to no trouble against the rest of the MWC.

Full Schedule:

8/31 at Michigan State

BYE

9/15 vs. Miami (Ohio)

9/20 vs. BYU

9/29 at New Mexico

10/06 at Southern Miss

10/13 vs. Fresno State

10/20 vs. UNLV

10/27 at Wyoming

11/03 vs. SDSU

11/10 at Hawai’i

11/17 vs. Colorado State

12/01 at Nevada

Season Outlook

Boise is losing a ton of talent, the same talent that lost only three times in the past four years. But the recruiting classes that BSU has brought in have been solid and so the talent disparity in the weak MWC should continue. Boise State might have a losing season for about a week when it opens against Michigan State — and even then, Michigan State has to re-tool too, so they could win that game, remarkably — but after that, it should be absolutely smooth sailing, even with a defense that’s losing half of its starters and without an offense that was manned by a Heisman contender. The defense will struggle and the offense may stall, but they’ll walk away winning damn near every game on their slate.

So much for rebuilding.