Re-Racking The NFL Power Rankings

The balance of power shifts each year in the NFL like balls on a billiards table. After week one of the 2011 season many power rankings had the Denver Broncos near the bottom of the league. Then the year of the Tebow was born — causing a shift in the league’s power rankings.

Will there be any such shifts this season. Are there any players who “have the power” to do that. We’ll take a look. We’ll also take a look at how the balance of power has shifted throughout the league — in 12 short months.

To do this I’ll be looking at 1) the media, 2) equilibrium changes in each division, and 3) individual game changers.

Media
Where’s the accountability? No, not team accountability — media accountability. For example, haven’t you ever wondered how close any of the experts came on their mock drafts. Notice they don’t spend a lot of time on that? Me too.

When a sports reporting mega-corporation asks one of their own to create a “power ranking” — what are they really doing? Fortune telling? Prophesying the future? Confirming a team’s lot in life? Or, have they all gone “Vegas” on us? Yes, to any and all of those would be an accurate answer. The larger question — that no one is asking — is, did they get it right?

Making a power ranking is akin to a turn of the century pie-tasting contest at the local social — before you’ve even tasted the pies. At least when those socials were over, everyone knew that the best pie was Lillian’s from Kalamazoo and not Shirley’s from Danbury — no matter what that hack named Harold from Huckabee said beforehand.

That’s what we’ve got in today’s media malaise — a bunch of Harold hucksters from Huckabee trying to sell us snake-oil. I think it’s time we put our foot down, dagnabbit!

After week one of the 2011 season, ESPN had the Indianapolis Colts ranked #9. Since then a lot of sucking and lucking and ex-QB trucking to another locale has taken place. Now I know what they meant by power “rank.” Only skunks would be proud of that one.

Also during week one of last year, that same sports reporting brain-trust placed your NY Giants at #15. Of course, I didn’t really see them coming either but, then again I’m not part of your excellencies’ (E) sports (S) programming (P) nexus (N).

What may be even more laughable was that during that same first week they also ranked the San Francisco 49ers 26th in the league. The 49ers not only hosted the NFC Championship game last year but, many prognosticators (Harolds of Huckabee — not to be confused with Lords of London) have them going to the Super Bowl this season.

Yahoo Sports has also jumped into the power ranking craze and the first week of the 2011 season they placed the 49ers at #28, the Denver Broncos at #27, and the Indianapolis Colts at #10. Yahoo ranked four teams — out of the playoffs — who eventually advanced to post league play.

CBS Sports had the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Jets, the San Diego Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts all in the top ten and going to the playoffs as of week one — of course none of that materialized for any of those teams.

Power Rankings are an attempt to know what can’t be known — who will finish on top by year’s end. Instead, how about if we savor the games and give a hope a chance. These so-called rankings have a tendency to dash the hopes of the fans whose teams have the same record at this time of year — and consequently the mathematical chance — of winning a division championship and a shot in the playoffs.

Rankings can only be enjoyed by about 33% of the fans out there at a time and besides — they never get it right or own up to it when they don’t get it right.

With that being said, let’s take a look at who may be changing the power structure within their own division.

Equilibrium Changes in Each Division

Last year the NFC East finished with the NY Giants winning in the last weekend as the Dallas Cowboys did everything they could to resist success late in the season. The Philadelphia Eagles went from dream team to swimming upstream. The Washington Redskins have the golden boy in Robert Griffin III and although I expect him to help make them better in the long run he shouldn’t be Dan Marino in his first year. While Dallas looks better on paper than last year they will have to overcome a bad case of the “here we go agains” every time they make a mistake or lose a game. I have Philly coming out of the NFC East.

Last year the AFC East included Rex Ryan’s Jets who he promised would go to the Super Bowl, Bill Belichick’s Patriots who went to the Super Bowl, the now fired Tony Sparanos’ Dolphins who won’t be going to a Super Bowl any time soon and Chan Gailey’s Bills who had an up then down season to say the least. Everyone has been predicting good things for the Jets if they can jell, jell, jell. We’ll trading for Tim Tebow is not going to help with that. The Dolphins need time — prison time. The Patriots are still at the top of their game — if they can get some younger players to mature quickly on the field. The Bills would be my mover and shaker in this division and could compete for the division crown.

Last year the NFC North was dominated by the reigning Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers who won 13 games straight before biting the big one in Kansas City to the Chiefs. The Lion’s excelled and made the playoffs with Matthew Stafford throwing for 5,038 yards. The Chicago Bears were on a playoff track much of the season until QB Jay Cutler went down. The Minnesota Vikings started the season 1-6 and ended 1-7. IOW.. it was a numerical disaster. The Vikings have a QB who is beginning his second campaign and a solid draft should help them to more than 3 victories. Especially if Adrian Peterson can stay healthy. The Lions may be coming back down to earth a bit and who knows how much of that has to do with off the field issues that seem never ending there. The Pack is back and that’s that — except — I don’t think they’ll have a 13 game winning streak this season. They were vulnerable on defense last year and the fix has yet to be seen. The Bears look like they can scale the heights this year and they will be fun to watch as long as their QB can either — keep from laughing at inappropriate times on the sidelines, like when his team is losing — or, stay on the field. I see both the Pack and Duh-Bears getting into the postseason shindig.

Last year the two other team in the the AFC North were bullied by the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. While many east coast trumpeters see things as — the same as it ever was — don’t believe it. The Browns have made some great picks in recent years like Joe Haden at corner. He’s the best corner in the division. However, the Browns are still probably a year away from turning the division upside down. The Bengals are not a year away and should contend for the division title this year. No one knows yet how the Steelers new hot-head OC Todd Haley is going to fit in and if now 30 year old Ben Roethlisberger keeps on insisting on wading through tacklers like he’s walking through a wading pool — then the Steelers aren’t going far this year. In Baltimore, Joe Flacco will have to take his game up a giant notch for the Ravens to succeed because the stalwarts on defense, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, will be 37 and 34 respectively this season — and it’s showing. The Bengals are my surprise pick coming out of the AFC North.

Last year the NFC South was represented in the playoffs by the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. Both of those teams look to remain strong. The problem is the other two teams in the division have gotten stronger too. First year coach Greg Schiano looks to improve the team but, it may take more than one season. The Panthers will improve too with Cam Newton roaming the football fields of America but, their defense must improve so that it doesn’t all fall on Newton’s shoulders. The Falcons will make a run for the division and the Panthers will give the Saints a run for second.

Last season the AFC South was taken over completely by the Houston Texans and neither the Titans, Jags nor Colts should change that this year. Not to be dismissive of the rest of the teams in this division but, the Texans have perhaps the most balanced team in all of football.

Last year, from the rubble that is the NFC West, arose the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners pushed their way, all the way, into the NFC title game and there’s not much that’s going on in this division that tells me it’s going to change at all this year. I don’t see the Cardinals, Seahawks or the Rams vying for a playoff spot but then, that’s why we play the games.

Last season in the AFC West — a man named Tebow — changed the way you play NFL football. At least long enough for GM John Elway to say — oh no you don’t. So, off to the badlands Tebow has flown and into his spot on the roster comes the well-esteemed Mr. Peyton Manning. Manning has recently been quoted as saying that he “feels like a rookie” — and we all know how that turned out (3-13). So far in preseason, in 5 drives Manning has led his new team to 1 TD (rushing- McGahee) and 3 INTs. With the passing of Al Davis in Oakland, the Raiders are undergoing a metamorphosis that will take a few years to evaluate except for the wins — and there won’t be many of those for awhile. The Chargers and the Chiefs appear to be the cream of the crop in the AFC West. Chargers have once again drafted well but, QB Philip Rivers has the Britney Spears blues — “Oops I Did It Again” — and until he can actually stop throwing interceptions and stop fumbling away would-be victories there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to channel Spears instead of being the Rivers we thought he could be ever since Drew Brees left town. For once, the Chiefs hopes don’t rely on QB Matt Cassel alone. Cassel is good but, he is now surrounded by oodles of talent on offense and defense and I’m not only picking them to come out of the AFC West but, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them in the AFC Championship game. They’ve got all the pieces in place, they simply need to continue their rise up the division and the conference charts.

Individual Game Changers
It’s a quarterback league is a tiresome phrase but, the players who could be changing the game this season — are quarterbacks.

Cam Newton and Andy Dalton both surprised us all last season. Not that they did well — but that they did as well as they did. Many QBs have sophomore slumps but, you don’t detect that either of these two will be falling off their pace from last season. Instead, their teams have continued to surround them with talent that should help them change the balance of power in their own respective divisions over this season and the next.

Matt Cassel will do that too for the Kansas City Chiefs this year. Cassel made the Pro Bowl in 2010 but, was out much of last season with an injury. GM Scott Pioli was a madman this off season signing experienced players to fill holes — especially on offense. Not only might Cassel return to Pro Bowl form but, The Bleacher Report is predicting Cassel to win the MVP award.

Another QB who could be changing the balance of power at the very top of league circles is Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers. This off season the 49ers signed one of the best receivers to ever play the game in Randy Moss and they also drafted 4.39 speedster A.J. Jenkins out of Illinois. Jenkins drew some media criticism early in camp because he dropped some balls but, the real issue for the 49ers is whether or not Smith can get the ball downfield to his new targets. Jim Harbaugh is an excellent coach and if he could get Alex Smith lead the team to the AFC Championship game last year there’s no doubt he could get him to navigate his team all the way to the promised land.

Lastly, is Matt Schaub. If Schaub can stay healthy he has a chance to lead a team that seems almost destined to ride off into the sunset with the Super Bowl Vince Lombardi trophy. In 2009 and 2010 Schaub threw for more than 4,300 yards each year with an average passer rating in the mid 90s. He just – has – to – stay – healthy! You can do it Matt Schaub, you can — because — you’re good enough, you’re smart enough, and doggone it, people like you.