Jonathan Broxton Reds: Current Value of Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland


Will Chapman keep his K/9 numbers as a starter?

Jonathan Broxton cashed in on his last season in a big way, with a 3-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds, and he will assume the closer role for Manager Dusty Baker’s squad.

Take a look at what Broxton last year:


This means a few things for a few people who aren’t named Jonathan Broxton, namely Aroldis Chapman and Greg Holland.

Chapman was looking like the number 2 closer in many rankings until now. Now, according to Reds Beat Writer John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, “This means Aroldis Chapman’s going to start.” More importantly, how he will grade out as a starter?

A big, strong flame thrower at the spry young age of 24 has dealt a little with arm fatigue, however, when he is on, he is about a nasty a hurler as there is. And a lefty that can top 100 MPH on the gun is about a valuable as they come.

Chapman last year:


One of my good buddies, and a proud Aroldis Chapman said this about Broxton signing:

“I love it more innings means more Ks til his arm falls off”.

This is the hope for Chapman owners everywhere, I’m sure. My buddy Bryce was planning on keeping Aroldis even before this move. Chapman was a Craig Kimbrel type at closer, they can give you darn near starter strikeouts in far fewer innings. Chapman had more strikeouts than, Mike Leake, Barry Zito, and Joe Saunders, who all had than 100+ more innings pitched than the reliever, just to name a few.

Chapman had a stellar 15.32 K:9 last season. Even if he comes down a bit and say has a 13.5 k:9 and would have pitched 70 innings we were talking 105 strikeouts, give or take (I rounded up from 104.9, okay?).

Now the Reds may in fact go with a pitch count on Chapman much like the Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg. Fay guessed somewhere around 180 innings, but let’s be conservative and  cap Chapman at 150 innings.

That gives us 225 Ks, again rounded up from 224.9, so give or take. That would have put him fifth overall and third in the NL last season. This isn’t saying that he will in fact sustain this sort of strikeout pace with that sort of work load; that has yet to be seen. I would however feel fine banking on 200+ Ks from Aroldis in 2013 so long as he surpasses 140 innings.

However, there is a downside to Chapman, even if he comes through on the strikeouts. He might give up a few home runs taking chances later in games when his arm is tired that could lead to a bloated ERA, he could fall to arm fatigue again and as I previously mentioned you may have to deal with an innings cap.

As it remains, Chapman is probably not going to be available in many keeper leagues anyway.  So I would like to turn your attention back to Greg Holland.

Holland has great stuff and had pretty good numbers last season, and probably should have been the closer for the Royals throughout last season, not only after Broxton went to the Reds.


Holland could be a steal at the ends of your drafts next year, and I for one am buying on this kid.  He maintained a 12.22 K:9 last season and even though he may go down to 12 even or 11.5 K:9, he should have the ninth inning all to himself and be good for for 75+ innings.

He won’t put up Aroldis or Kimbrel type numbers but he is a heck of a lot better than scrubs like Glen Perkins, Chris Perez and Jose Valverde.