Royals-Rays Trade: Fantasy Baseball Value of All Players Involved

Wil Myers takes his talents to the Grapefruit State. Photo by Minda Haas.

Two small market clubs made a big hot stove splash when the Royals acquired James Shields from the Rays. Wade Davis will join James Shields in Kansas City, while Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard will go to Tampa, along with top prospect Wil Myers.

Shields and Davis are the only two locks from the trade to be in the majors this year, but Myers seems like a safe bet to get to Tampa at some time during the season. Montgomery and Odorizzi have a shot to get called up during the season, but are not fantasy relevant in anything other than a keeper league. But let’s take a look at what fantasy value these guys will bring.

James Shields

Well, he better be good because if not, he may live in infamy as “The Guy Who Was Traded For Wil Myers“.

It seems in the aftermath of the trade, Shields is being undervalued as not being worth a package featuring Myers. It’s a sign of how much baseball fans, and fantasy players in particular, value prospects. We’re always want the next great player instead of a current one.

Shields has won double-digit games in six straight years, had an ERA under 4.15 in five of those seasons, and threw at least 200 innings in each of those seasons.

He might not always be an ace, but he is a horse and at age 30 there is room to get better.

At first glance, the move to Kansas City looks like a hit for his fantasy value, but that’s not true.

Kansas City made the move with the hope it makes them better this year while Tampa obviously made the deal for the future. Considering past front-office success, there is certainly a chance the Rays could still get more wins than the Royals, but that’s not much more than a 50-50 bet at this time, so in Kansas City, Shields has as good a shot at the 15 wins a season he averaged in recent years while in Tampa.

Kansas City has always been a pitcher’s ballpark, so I would expect his ERA to come in below his career mark of 3.89. He will also continue to pile up 225 strikeouts per season.

Shields is not under the radar to fantasy owners who have reaped value from him in every season except 2010, but I think he is undervalued by most baseball fans, judging by the response to this trade. He was a top 20 fantasy starter last year and he will be again for the next few years with the Royals.

Wade Davis

This is the guy who likely makes or breaks the deal for Kansas City.

You expect that Shields will be good, but if Davis makes it two solid starters in the trade, then Kansas City got the value it expected. If he can’t figure it out as a starter and has to go to the bullpen, the Royals will not have got the value they thought they would.

Davis was average as a starter for two years before being above-average as a reliever.

He will compete with Felipe Paulino, Luis Mendoza, and Bruce Chen for one of two available spots in the Royals rotation. Chen remains reliable, but figure that with all Kansas City gave up in the deal, they will give Davis every chance to be a starter.

However, the transition year from the bullpen means that he’s not likely to toss more than 175 innings next season. He threw 184 innings in 2011, so he has shown that he can get can get close to 200, but after throwing just 70 1/3 innings last year, the Royals will likely limit his innings.

Like Shields, I think Davis is being underrated by those criticizing Kansas City’s side of the deal. As I mentioned with Shields, people love prospects and sometimes when it takes a while for them to develop, everyone jumps off the bandwagon.

Davis is 27 and has started at least 29 major-league games in his career twice with an ERA under 4.50 in both those years. Not great numbers, but solid for a guy yet to hit his prime.

Davis showed his stuff last year with a 2.43 ERA and 87 strikeouts while allowing just 48 hits in 70 1/3 innings pitched. That should have also given him a boost of confidence as he gets his wish to once again be a starter next year.

His innings limit and transition back to being a starter leave enough questions that you aren’t taking him as a reliable fantasy starter, but he’s worth a stash at the end of a draft and a few extra auction bucks in a keeper league.

Wil Myers

Myers has torn through the minors and should contend for a spot on the Rays Opening Day roster, but don’t expect that to happen.

As is often the case with rookies on low-salaried teams, Myers may have to wait a few months before Tampa calls him up to drag out his arbitration years. Being his first year in a new organization, Tampa will have an easy excuse to say it wants to see him in the minors a bit before calling him up to the big leagues.

That’s what you should expect, but if Myers tears up spring training, he may force Tampa to keep him with the big club.

All the projections have Myers as a possible .300, 35-homer, 300-RBI guy in his career, but here we are debating what to expect from him next year.

He has always hit in the minors, batting at least .285 in all but one of his minor-league stops. The power has been more erratic as he hit 14 homers in 2010, eight in 2011, and then 37 last year. His career OBP is .395 with a .917 OPS

I think a Bryce Harper-like line with a .280 average, 16 homers, and 60 RBIs is a fair expectation for this year.

His value obviously rises in keeper leagues as Myers may be an elite outfielder in just a couple years, but don’t put your expectations too high for his first year in the majors at age 22.

Jake Odorizzi

He made two starts for the Royals last year and will get a look in spring training to fill a spot in the rotation with the Rays. He started two games, giving up four runs in 7 1/3 innings with the Royals last year; way too small of a sample size to consider when debating his 2013 fantasy value.

If he locks up a spot in the rotation before fantasy drafts, he will be worth a flier, but for the most part he is only relevant in keeper leagues.
A key player Kansas City got in the Zack Greinke deal, Odorizzi has a 3.50 ERA in four minor league seasons and was better than that last year with a combined ERA of 3.03 in Double-A and Triple-A.

Plenty to like, but not somebody who will likely carry much fantasy value in 2013.

Mike Montgomery

His clock seems to show it is time for a trip to the majors after spending most of the past two years in Omaha, but don’t expect to see him in the bigs this year. The 23-year-old former first-round pick has struggled as he made his way up the Royals’ system and Tampa has enough young arms that it will not need to call on Montgomery this year.