Fantasy Baseball 2013: Cincinnati Reds Hitting & Pitching Projections

Will Chapman be a starter or reliever in 2013?

Cincinnati Reds — Predicted Finish: Second Place, NL Central

I really like Cincinnati’s lineup. I love the addition of Choo, even if it means worse outfield defense, and I’m looking for a strong return from Votto and a step forward from Frazier. But let’s not waste any more words in this intro; let’s get straight to looking at players.

Reds Offense

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Plenty and we’ll go through them one-by-one.

1. Choo gives the Reds the leadoff hitter they have been searching for. He gets on base, he has a little pop and he has a little speed. Cincinnati’s defense will suffer if he plays CF, but that doesn’t matter on your fantasy team.
2. Phillips has been as dependable a second baseman as they come. He’s also 31 now, so while he’s been dependable, he doesn’t have any upside left. Don’t draft him think ing he’ll build on previous year’s numbers, but do draft him because you’ll know what you’re going to get, which is a solid all around contributor at a shallow second base position.
3. Votto is a star and shouldn’t last past the first round. Injuries sapped his power last year, but he’ll again lead the league in OBP by a wide margin. I’ve written more on Votto Joey Votto or Adrian Gonzalez here.
4. Ludwick could be a sneaky $1 player, who gives you more value than that. He hits in the heart of this lineup and will give you 20 homer power used as a fantasy baseball 4th outfielder.
5. Bruce is just 25 and it’s important to remember how young a player he is. Draft him as a marginal first or as a killer second outfielder because 35+ bombs are likely.
6. Frazier would’ve hit his way into more at bats last season if it wasn’t for Dusty Baker‘s tendency to favor veterans. This is the year that this young third baseman takes a step forward. Wait until the more expensive first baseman are off the board, then snatch him up.
7. Mesoraco has by far the highest ceiling of any of Cincinnati’s catchers, but he’ll have a short leash in Baker’s veterans first lineup. He’s not worth drafting, but keep an eye on him as an upshot replacement if your first catcher struggles.
8. Cozart will be mercifully moved out of the leadoff spot and he won’t regain it. He doesn’t hurt you in any categories, but he doesn’t help you either, particularly because his lower position in the batting order kills any run potential he once had.

Reds Pitching

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: All

OK, Arroyo isn’t spectacular, but he’s been a solid pitcher outside of his disastrous 2011 season, making him an option for a spot start or two.

Is this the season that Homer Bailey finally finds consistency? My gut says ‘no’ but I also had enchiladas for dinner. His 2012 second half was a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, with 107 Ks in 118 innings. That’s too small a sample to run and wrap your arms around him, but do take a look at him as a sleeper pitcher.

Finally, I’m projecting Cueto and Latos to have roughly the same season. I like them both; you choose your poison.

Fantasy Star: Votto

Again, I’ve already typed lots of words about Votto, so I’ll point you there. In a nutshell: draft him.

Fantasy Sleeper and Bust: Chapman

If you haven’t heard, Chapman is being converted from a closer to a starter. Every year we have a few pitchers who make this shift and each year we have a success story or two – Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, Lance Lynn – and a disaster or two – Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz, and pretty much every other reliever because they were probably a failed starter at some point.

I worry about his lack of a highly effective third pitch and how his gas holds up after 80 pitches thrown. I went round and round and realized I didn’t know how to value him. I wasn’t sure if he’d be a sleeper as a starter or a bust as a starter.

Finally, I found a source that I think gives as fair a fantasy guess as anyone could honestly claim and I decided it would just be best to link Bret Sayre at Fake Teams because I can’t do a better job then he already did.

More National League Central Previews

• Chicago Cubs
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Milwaukee Brewers
• St. Louis Cardinals