Fantasy Baseball 2013: Colorado Rockies Hitting-Pitching Projections

2013 will likely be the last for Helton in Colorado.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user

Jon Dawson

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Colorado Rockies — Predicted Finish: Fifth Place, NL West

As it relates to fantasy baseball, there is no more interesting team in baseball heading into 2013 than these Colorado Rockies. Yes, we’re picking them to finish last, but that’s more because of a pretty good division (at least at the top), a putrid pitching staff (more on that later) and some aging, injury prone veterans (more on that later).

But despite a fairly bleak looking 2013, they have some young hitters that are really worth a strong look. Part of that is Coors Field, but these guys showed that they can hit in 2012. Now, will that translate to 2013? Will some of their veterans stay on the field long enough to make a big fantasy impact? Well, let’s take a look.

Rockies Offense:

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Fowler, Rutledge, Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, Cuddyer, Rosario

This lineup can go a lot of ways, so I went with what mlbdepthcharts.com suggested. But before I explain these picks, I want to throw a few other names out there for you.

BONUS!

First of all, I omitted Helton because I don’t trust that he’ll play more than 100 games. He doesn’t hit for enough power to make an impact on your fantasy team anymore, especially at first base. Throw in that he’s also failed to hit .260 in two of the last three years. Helton’s had a great career and deserves a final year with the Rockies, but he’s not a good fantasy guy anymore.

Nelson was kept off because while he showed good average last year, he didn’t have much pop. Even in the minors, he wasn’t a particularly dangerous power hitter. He does have eligibility at a very thin second base position, but I think you can do better there. Actually, I think you can do better there if you’re in a Rockies’ only league, but more on that later. Now for the rest of these guys:

• Fowler – I’d like him a lot more with more steals. I’d also like him a lot more if the .300 season of 2012 didn’t come after two .266 seasons, and one .260 year. But he’s always had a good OBP, so his run total should be good. Fowler is the kind of player who’s not great in any category, but not really bad in any of them, either. I don’t think he’ll hit .300 again, but I’d predict that over another .260-ish average.
• Rutledge – I like Rutledge. You’ll see more on him below, and a lot more on him throughout the week in a few different pieces. The guy is just a good player.
• Gonzalez – One of the best overall fantasy outfielders. Above average or much better in every category. Much better in roto leagues than in head to head, as his weakness away from Coors Field will show in weeks where the Rockies are on the road. But the numbers at Coors are so reliable that the overall stats will be fine come the end of September. Like Rutledge, more on him later.
• Tulowitzki – Again, more on him later. The injuries are a concern but when Tulo is on, he’s not just the most productive fantasy shortstop, his fantasy numbers match the numbers of the best players at deeper positions. Just draft a solid backup. The odds of him playing 150 or more games are not good.
• Cuddyer – Not as valuable as he was when he had eligibility all over the place. But still a good power threat. The injuries concern me. As you can see in the predictions above, I don’t think this will happen. But if Cuddyer plays 150 games, half of them at Coors, he’s a 30-35 homer guy.
• Rosario – I told Clave this when we were debating the numbers for our Draft Kit (Feb. 18, baby). The advanced metrics don’t favor Rosario, but he passes the eye test. If he plays a full season (which we expect), you’ll get 25 or more homers from the catcher position.
• Pacheco – Now, Pacheco is a good hitter, I just don’t trust his power, as he’ll enter 2013 eligible at both corner infield positions. But I expect him to gain catcher eligibility during the year (Rosario is not a good defensive catcher), and then you’re getting a .290-.300 hitter at that position. If that happens, you could do worse.
• Colvin – With Helton and Cuddyer’s injury history, Colvin should see plenty of time. Watch him early in the year to see if he’s around the .290 clip of 2012. Colvin can hit the long ball, but won’t likely be good for more than about 20. Outside of 2012, he’s a .215 career hitter. If Colvin’s around 20 homers and 70 or so RBI, he’ll have fantasy value, but only if he’s at about .280 or better. His position eligibility does him no favors in that regard.

Rockies Pitching:

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Betancourt

It’s really unfortunate that Betancourt has pitched for bad, small market teams for most of his career. Aside from a poor 2008 season, he’s actually been one of the better relievers in the game for the better part of a decade.

Between injuries, Coors Field, a pitch count (90-100 instead of 75), and general inconsistency, none of the starters are worth putting on your roster. Their rewards they would bring aren’t worth the risks, which are immense.

Fantasy Star: Gonzalez

Again, Gonzalez is at worst an above average player in every category. I know that his home/road splits aren’t great, but guess what? CarGo gets to play half of his games at Coors Field, and history’s shown that he does well enough there to produce good numbers across the board. Since becoming a full-time player in 2010, look at his worst numbers in each of the five fantasy categories.

• Runs: 89. HR: 22. RBI: 85. SB: 20. AVG: .295
  

What’s the weakness? Those are his worst numbers over the last three years. He’s only 26, so there’s no real reason to think he’s slowing down.

I will concede the point about H2H leagues. Not only are half of your matchups going to take place with CarGo away from Coors, but he’s also never played more than 145 games in a season. Still, the overall numbers are just too good to pass up on.

Fantasy Bust: Tulowitzki

I’ve said this about Tulo in the past, but the injury history is just terrifying. 47 games played in 2012, 101 games played in 2008, 122 games played in 2010, 143 games played in 2011. That’s four out of six seasons where he’s had the equivalent of at least one trip to the DL.

I get the temptation to draft him high and I have to be honest, if I’m competing for a fantasy title in September and I see that my primary opponent has Tulo, I’m writing my runner-up speech.

But he’s going to be a high pick because of the big numbers from the shortstop position, and he just won’t play enough games.

Fantasy Sleeper(s): Rutledge, Rosario

I’d like to include Fowler here, but I can’t really call him a sleeper.

Rutledge will be a top of the order guy here. He’s got good speed and a good swing for Coors Field. He’ll produce a lot of XBH, which will equal runs and RBI in this park. Now, even at Coors, he probably won’t hit more than about 15 homers, but he’ll do pretty much everything else.

He’ll start the year eligible at shortstop only, but should pick up second base eligibility early in the year. With Tulo’s injury history, don’t be surprised if he plays enough at short to maintain eligibility there for 2014. Rutledge was a great minor league hitter and was really strong in 2012 before fading in September (VERY common for rookies). I expect him to be a Top-10 second baseman and shortstop by season’s end.

Rosario is a basher of the ball. He’s not a great catcher, but that’s not a fantasy player’s problem. He won’t get you a great average, but the power is phenomenal. In only 396 at-bats in 2012, Rosario still hit more homers (28) than any catcher in the game. He’s not Buster Posey or Joe Mauer in the average department, but he’ll get you great power stats.

More National League West Previews

• San Diego Padres
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• San Francisco Giants